General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 22. Yorkshire West

WEST YORKSHIRE

Seats: 22
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 14, Lib 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 11, Lab, 10, Lib 1

1. Batley & Spen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17159 (33.6%)
Labour: 21565 (42.2%)
Lib Dem: 8095 (15.8%)
BNP: 3685 (7.2%)
Green: 605 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 4406 (8.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jo Cox 21,826 43.2 +1.7
Conservative Imtiaz Ameen 15,769 31.2 −1.8
UKIP Aleks Lukic 9,080 18.0 N/A
Liberal Democrat John Lawson 2,396 4.7 −11.1
Green Ian Bullock 1,232 2.4 +1.3
TUSC Dawn Wheelhouse 123 0.2 N/A
Patriotic Socialist Karl Varley 53 0.1 N/A
Majority 6,057 12.0
Turnout 50,479 64.4

2016 By Election Result:
Labour Tracy Brabin 17,506 85.8 +42.6
English Democrat Therese Muchewicz 969 4.8 N/A
BNP David Furness 548 2.7 N/A
Independent Garry Kitchin 517 2.5 N/A
English Independence Corbyn Anti 241 1.2 N/A
Liberty GB Jack Buckby 220 1.0 N/A
Independent Henry Mayhew 153 0.8 N/A
Independent Waqas Ali Khan 118 0.6 N/A
National Front Richard Edmonds 87 0.4 N/A
One Love Ankit Love 34 0.2 N/A
Majority 16,537 81.0
Turnout 20,393 25.8

Leave Vote: 59.62%

Sitting MP: Tracey Brabin (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Held by Labour since 1997 but a Conservative seat between 1983 and 1997 with Elizabeth Peacock. This seat goes Conservative when the Conservatives win big. However, it’s difficult to factor in the effect of the circumstances of the by-election to make a definite prediction.

2. Bradford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10860 (26.8%)
Labour: 13272 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 13637 (33.7%)
BNP: 1854 (4.6%)
Independent: 375 (0.9%)
Others: 459 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 365 (0.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Imran Hussain 19,312 46.6 +13.8
Liberal Democrat David Ward 12,228 29.5 -4.2
Conservative Iftikhar Ahmed 4,682 11.3 -15.5
UKIP Owais Rajput 4,103 9.9 N/A
Green David Stevens 871 2.1 N/A
British Democratic James Lewthwaite 210 0.5 N/A
Majority 7,084 17.1 +16.2
Turnout 41,406 62.6 +0.5

Leave Vote: 55.62%

Sitting MP: Imran Hussain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

David Ward has been sacked as LibDem candidate. If he had been standing it might have been possible to argue for a LibDem gain here. Not now, though.

3. Bradford South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11060 (29.1%)
Labour: 15682 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6948 (18.3%)
BNP: 2651 (7%)
UKIP: 1339 (3.5%)
Others: 315 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4622 (12.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Judith Cummins 16,328 43.4 +2.2
Conservative Tanya Graham 9,878 26.3 −2.8
UKIP Jason Smith 9,057 24.1 +20.6
Green Andy Robinson 1,243 3.3 N/A
Liberal Democrat Andrew Tear 1,094 2.9 −15.4
Majority 6,450 17.2
Turnout 37,600 59.1

Leave Vote: 63.56%

Sitting MP: Judith Cummins (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hard to see anything other than a Labour hold here. The seat has never been anything other than Labour, and yet, and yet… If the UKIP vote collapsed and much of it went to the Tories, you never know. A very outside bet, though.

4. Bradford West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12638 (31.1%)
Labour: 18401 (45.3%)
Lib Dem: 4732 (11.7%)
BNP: 1370 (3.4%)
Green: 940 (2.3%)
UKIP: 812 (2%)
Respect: 1245 (3.1%)
Others: 438 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5763 (14.2%)

BY-ELECTION
George Galloway (Respect) 18341 55.9% (52.8%)
Imran Hussain (Labour) 8201 25% (-20.3%)
Jackie Whiteley (Conservative) 2746 8.4% (-22.7%)
Jeanette Sunderland (Liberal Democrat) 1505 4.6% (-7.1%)
Sonja McNally (UKIP) 1085 3.3% (1.3%)
Dawud Islam (Green) 481 1.5% (-0.8%)
Neil Craig (Democratic Nationalists) 344 1% (-0.1%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 111 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 10140 30.9%
Turnout 50% (-14.9%)

2015 Result:
Naz Shah Labour 19,977 49.6 +24.6
George Galloway Respect 8,557 21.2 -34.7
George Grant Conservative 6,160 15.3 +6.9
Harry Boota UKIP 3,140 7.8 +4.5
Alun Griffiths Liberal Democrat 1,173 2.9 −1.7
Celia Hickson Green 1,085 2.7 +1.2
James Kirkcaldy Independent 100 0.2 N/A
Therese Muchewicz English Democrat 98 0.2 N/A
Majority: 11,420 (28.3%)
Swing: 29.7% from Respect to Lab

Leave Vote: 46.37%

Sitting MP: Naz Shah (Lab)
Prediction: Lab hold

5. Calder Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20397 (39.4%)
Labour: 13966 (27%)
Lib Dem: 13037 (25.2%)
BNP: 1823 (3.5%)
Green: 858 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1173 (2.3%)
English Dem: 157 (0.3%)
Independent: 194 (0.4%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6431 (12.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Craig Whittaker 23,354 43.6 +4.2
Labour Josh Fenton-Glynn 18,927 35.4 +8.4
UKIP Paul Rogan 5,950 11.1 +8.8
Liberal Democrat Alisdair McGregor 2,666 5.0 −20.2
Green Jenny Shepherd 2,090 3.9 +2.2
Yorkshire First Rod Sutcliffe 389 0.7 +0.7
World Peace Through Song Joe Stead 165 0.3 +0.3
Majority 4,427 8.3 −4.1
Turnout 53,541 68.9 +1.6

Leave Vote: 51.5%

Sitting MP: Craig Whittaker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Colne Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20440 (37%)
Labour: 14589 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 15603 (28.2%)
BNP: 1893 (3.4%)
Green: 867 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1163 (2.1%)
TUSC: 741 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4837 (8.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jason McCartney 25,246 44.4 +7.5
Labour Jane East 19,868 35.0 +8.6
UKIP Melanie Roberts 5,734 10.1 +8.0
Liberal Democrat Cahal Burke 3,407 6.0 −22.2
Green Chas Ball 1,919 3.4 +1.8
Yorkshire First Paul Salveson 572 1.0 N/A
Independent Melodie Staniforth 54 0.1 N/A
Majority 5,378 9.5
Turnout 56,800 68.8

Leave Vote: 50.05%

Sitting MP: Jason McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Dewsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18898 (35%)
Labour: 17372 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 9150 (16.9%)
BNP: 3265 (6%)
Green: 849 (1.6%)
English Dem: 661 (1.2%)
Independent: 3813 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 1526 (2.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Paula Sherriff 22,406 41.8 +9.6
Conservative Simon Reevell 20,955 39.1 +4.1
UKIP Mark Thackray 6,649 12.4 N/A
Liberal Democrat Ednan Hussain 1,924 3.6 −13.4
Green Adrian Cruden 1,366 2.5 +1.0
Yorkshire First Richard Carter 236 0.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Steve Hakes 94 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,451 2.7 N/A
Turnout 53,630 67.2 −1.3

Leave Vote: 57.15%

Sitting MP: Paula Sherriff (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat went Tory in 2010 but flipped back to Labour in 2015. It would be surprising if it didn’t flip back this time.

8. Elmet & Rothwell

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23778 (42.6%)
Labour: 19257 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9109 (16.3%)
BNP: 1802 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1593 (2.9%)
Independent: 250 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4521 (8.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alec Shelbrooke 27,978 48.4 +5.8
Labour Veronica King 19,488 33.7 -0.8
UKIP Paul Spivey 6,430 11.1 +8.3
Liberal Democrat Stewart Golton 2,640 4.6 -11.8
Green Dave Brooks 1,261 2.2 +2.2
Majority 8,490 14.7 +6.6
Turnout 57,797 73.0 +1.2

Leave Vote: 56.79%

Sitting MP: Alec Shelbrooke
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Halifax

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14806 (34%)
Labour: 16278 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 8335 (19.1%)
BNP: 2760 (6.3%)
UKIP: 654 (1.5%)
Others: 722 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1472 (3.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Holly Lynch 17,506 40.0 +2.6
Conservative Philip Allott 17,078 39.0 +5.0
UKIP Liz Phillips 5,621 12.8 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Mohammad Ilyas 1,629 3.7 -15.4
Green Gary Scott 1,142 2.6 N/A
Respect Asama Javed 465 1.1 N/A
Christian Trevor Bendrien 312 0.7 N/A
Majority 428 1.0 -2.4
Turnout 43,753 62.1 +0.2

Leave Vote: 60.7%

Sitting MP: Holly Lynch (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories had high hopes here in the last two elections but they didn’t quite manage it. They will this time.

10. Hemsworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10662 (24.3%)
Labour: 20506 (46.8%)
Lib Dem: 5667 (12.9%)
BNP: 3059 (7%)
Independent: 3946 (9%)
MAJORITY: 9844 (22.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jon Trickett 21,772 51.3 +4.6
Conservative Christopher Pearson 9,694 22.9 -1.5
UKIP Steve Ashton 8,565 20.2 +20.2
Liberal Democrat Mary MacQueen 1,357 3.2 -9.7
Yorkshire First Martin Roberts 1,018 2.4 +2.4
Majority 12,078 28.5
Turnout 42,406 58.3

Leave Vote: 67.35%

Sitting MP: Jon Trickett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Huddersfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11253 (27.8%)
Labour: 15725 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 10023 (24.7%)
BNP: 1563 (3.9%)
Green: 1641 (4%)
TUSC: 319 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4472 (11%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Barry Sheerman 18,186 44.9 +6.1
Conservative Itrat Ali 10,841 26.8 -1.0
UKIP Rob Butler 5,948 14.7 +14.7
Green Andrew Cooper 2,798 6.9 +2.9
Liberal Democrat Zulfiqar Ali 2,365 5.8 -18.9
TUSC Mike Forster 340 0.8 +0.1
Majority 7,345 18.1
Turnout 40,478 62.0

Leave Vote: 51.85%
Sitting MP: Barry Sheerman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If the Tories win a 150 seat landslide this seat may well fall to them, but not otherwise.

12. Keighley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20003 (41.9%)
Labour: 17063 (35.8%)
Lib Dem: 7059 (14.8%)
BNP: 1962 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1470 (3.1%)
Others: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2940 (6.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kris Hopkins 21,766 44.3 +2.4
Labour John Grogan 18,713 38.1 +2.3
UKIP Paul Latham 5,662 11.5 +8.4
Green Ros Brown 1,661 3.4 N/A
Liberal Democrat Gareth Epps 1,321 2.7 −12.1
Majority 3,053 6.2
Turnout 49,123 71.3 -1.1

Sitting MP: Kris Hopkins (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

13. Leeds Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20.2%)
Labour: 18434 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7789 (20.8%)
BNP: 3066 (8.2%)
Independent: 409 (1.1%)
Others: 155 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10645 (28.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Hilary Benn 24,758 55.0 +5.7
Conservative Nicola Wilson 7,791 17.3 -2.9
UKIP Luke Senior 7,082 15.7 N/A
Green Michael Hayton 3,558 7.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Emma Spriggs 1,529 3.4 -17.4
TUSC Liz Kitching 330 0.7 +0.7
Majority 16,967 37.7
Turnout 45,048 55.1

Leave Vote: 45.96%

Sitting MP: Hilary Benn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

14. Leeds East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8763 (23.2%)
Labour: 19056 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6618 (17.5%)
BNP: 2947 (7.8%)
Others: 429 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10293 (27.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Richard Burgon 20,530 53.7 +3.4
Conservative Ryan Stephenson 7,997 20.9 -2.2
UKIP Mark Maniatt 7,256 19.0 +19.0
Liberal Democrat Ed Sanderson 1,296 3.4 -14.1
Green Kate Bisson 1,117 2.9 +2.9
Majority 12,533 32.8
Turnout 38,196 59.0

Leave Vote: 61.44%

Sitting MP: Richard Burgon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

15. Leeds North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15742 (33.1%)
Labour: 20287 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9310 (19.6%)
BNP: 758 (1.6%)
UKIP: 842 (1.8%)
Others: 596 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4545 (9.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Fabian Hamilton 23,137 47.9 +5.2
Conservative Simon Wilson 15,887 32.9 -0.2
UKIP Warren Hendon 3,706 7.7 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Aqila Choudhry 2,569 5.3 -14.3
Green Emma Carter 2,541 5.3 N/A
Alliance for Green Socialism Celia Foote 451 0.9 -0.3
Majority 7,250 15.0 +5.4
Turnout 48,291 69.9 -0.1

Leave Vote: 37.42%

Sitting MP: Fabian Hamilton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This was last a Tory seat in 1992. Just can’t see it happening for the Tories here barring an extreme result.

16. Leeds North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11550 (26.6%)
Labour: 9132 (21%)
Lib Dem: 20653 (47.5%)
BNP: 766 (1.8%)
Green: 508 (1.2%)
UKIP: 600 (1.4%)
English Dem: 153 (0.4%)
Others: 121 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9103 (20.9%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Greg Mulholland 15,948 36.8 -10.7
Labour Alex Sobel 13,041 30.1 +9.1
Conservative Alex Story 8,083 18.6 -7.9
Green Tim Goodall 3,042 7.0 +5.8
UKIP Julian Metcalfe 2,997 6.9 +5.5
Yorkshire First Bob Buxton 143 0.3 N/A
Alliance for Green Socialism Mike Davies 79 0.2 -0.1
Above and Beyond Mark Flanagan 24 0.1 N/A
Majority 2,907 6.7
Turnout 43,357 70.0

Leave Vote: 35.4%

Sitting MP: Greg Mulholland (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

17. Leeds West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7641 (19.7%)
Labour: 16389 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 9373 (24.2%)
BNP: 2377 (6.1%)
Green: 1832 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1140 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 7016 (18.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rachel Reeves 18,456 48.0 +5.7
Conservative Alex Pierre-Traves 7,729 20.1 +0.4
UKIP Anne Murgatroyd 7,104 18.5 +15.5
Green Andrew Pointon 3,217 8.4 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Laura Coyle 1,495 3.9 −20.3
CISTA Matthew West 217 0.6 +0.6
TUSC Ben Mayor 205 0.5 +0.5
Majority 10,727 27.9 +9.8
Turnout 38,423 59.2 +1.7

Leave Vote: 53.27%

Sitting MP: Rachel Reeves
Prediction: Labour hold

18. Morley & Outwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17264 (35.3%)
Labour: 18365 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 8186 (16.8%)
BNP: 3535 (7.2%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 1101 (2.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrea Jenkyns 18,776 38.9 +3.6
Labour Co-op Ed Balls 18,354 38.0 +0.4
UKIP David Dews 7,951 16.5 +13.4
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Taylor 1,426 3.0 −13.8
Green Martin Hemingway 1,264 2.6 N/A
Yorkshire First Arnie Craven 479 1.0 N/A
Majority 422 0.9 N/A
Turnout 48,250 63.3 -2.5

Leave Vote: 59.82%

Sitting MP: Andrea Jenkyns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

19. Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11314 (24.5%)
Labour: 22293 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7585 (16.4%)
BNP: 3864 (8.4%)
Independent: 1183 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10979 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Yvette Cooper 25,213 54.9 +6.7
UKIP Nathan Garbutt 9,785 21.3 N/A
Conservative Beth Prescott 9,569 20.8 −3.6
Liberal Democrat Edward McMillan-Scott 1,330 2.9 −13.5
Majority 15,428 33.6 +9.9
Turnout 45,897 55.6 -0.6

Leave Vote: 70.34%

Sitting MP: Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

20. Pudsey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18874 (38.5%)
Labour: 17215 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 10224 (20.8%)
BNP: 1549 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1221 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 1659 (3.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stuart Andrew 23,637 46.4 +8.0
Labour Jamie Hanley 19,136 37.6 +2.5
UKIP Roger Tattersall 4,689 9.2 +6.7
Liberal Democrat Ryk Downes 1,926 3.8 -17.0
Green Claire Allen 1,539 3.0 +3.0
Majority 4,501 8.8 +5.4
Turnout 50,927 72.2 +1.3

Leave Vote: 48.58%

Sitting MP: Stuart Andrew (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

21. Shipley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24002 (48.6%)
Labour: 14058 (28.4%)
Lib Dem: 9890 (20%)
Green: 1477 (3%)
MAJORITY: 9944 (20.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Philip Davies 25,269 50.0 +1.4
Labour Steve Clapcote 15,645 31.0 +2.5
UKIP Waqas Khan 4,479 8.9 N/A
Green Kevin Warnes 2,657 5.3 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Andrew Martin 1,949 3.9 -16.2
Yorkshire First Darren Hill 543 1.1 N/A
Majority 9,624 19.0
Turnout 50,542 71.7

Leave Vote: 49.71%

Sitting MP: Philip Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

22. Wakefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15841 (35.6%)
Labour: 17454 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 7256 (16.3%)
BNP: 2581 (5.8%)
Green: 873 (2%)
Independent: 439 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1613 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Mary Creagh 17,301 40.3 +1.0
Conservative Antony Calvert 14,688 34.2 −1.5
UKIP Alan Hazelhurst 7,862 18.3 +18.3
Liberal Democrat Finbarr Cronin 1,483 3.5 −12.9
Green Rebecca Thackray 1,069 2.5 +0.5
TUSC Mick Griffiths 287 0.7 +0.7
CISTA Elliot Barr 283 0.7 +0.7
Majority 2,613 6.1
Turnout 42,973 60.9

Leave Vote: 62.57%

Sitting MP: Mary Creagh (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

I’m afraid Parliament will be saying goodbye to one of its nicest MPs.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE