General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 25. Merseyside

29 Apr 2017 at 19:14

MERSEYSIDE

Seats: 15
Current Political Makeup: Lab 14, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 2, Lab 13

1. Birkenhead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6687 (18.9%)
Labour: 22082 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 6554 (18.6%)
MAJORITY: 15395 (43.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Frank Field 26,468 67.6 +5.1
Conservative Clark Vasey 5,816 14.9 -4.1
UKIP Wayne Harling 3,838 9.8 +9.8
Green Kenny Peers 1,626 4.2 +4.2
Liberal Democrat Allan Brame 1,396 3.6 -15.0
Majority 20,652 52.8 +9.2
Turnout 39,144 62.7 +5.1

Leave Vote: 52.7%

Sitting MP: Frank Field (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Bootle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3678 (8.9%)
Labour: 27426 (66.4%)
Lib Dem: 6245 (15.1%)
BNP: 942 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2514 (6.1%)
TUSC: 472 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 21181 (51.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Peter Dowd 33,619 74.5 +8.0
UKIP Paul Nuttall 4,915 10.9 +4.8
Conservative Jade Marsden 3,639 8.1 -0.9
Green Lisa Tallis 1,501 3.3 N/A
Liberal Democrat David Newman 978 2.2 -13.0
TUSC Peter Glover 500 1.1 0.0
Majority 28,704 63.6 +12.3
Turnout 45,152 64.4 +6.6

Leave Vote: 54.8%

Sitting MP: Peter Dowd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Garston & Halewood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6908 (16.1%)
Labour: 25493 (59.5%)
Lib Dem: 8616 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1540 (3.6%)
Respect: 268 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16877 (39.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Maria Eagle 33,839 69.1 +9.6
Conservative Martin Williams 6,693 13.7 -2.5
UKIP Carl Schears 4,482 9.2 +5.6
Liberal Democrat Anna Martin 2,279 4.7 -15.5
Green Will Ward 1,690 3.5 +3.5
Majority 27,146 55.4 +16.0
Turnout 48,983 66.1 +6.0

Leave Vote: 47.96%

Sitting MP: Maria Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Knowsley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4004 (9%)
Labour: 31650 (70.9%)
Lib Dem: 5964 (13.4%)
BNP: 1895 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 25686 (57.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour George Howarth 39,628 78.1 +7.2
UKIP Louise Bours 4,973 9.8 +7.2
Conservative Alice Bramall 3,367 6.6 -2.3
Liberal Democrat Carl Cashman 1,490 2.9 -10.4
Green Vikki Gregorich 1,270 2.5 N/A
Majority 34,655 68.3 +10.8
Turnout 50,728 64.1 +8.0

Leave Vote: 52.34%

Sitting MP: George Howarth (Lab)
Prediction: :Labour hold

5. Liverpool Riverside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4243 (10.9%)
Labour: 22998 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 8825 (22.7%)
BNP: 706 (1.8%)
Green: 1355 (3.5%)
UKIP: 674 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 14173 (36.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Louise Ellman 29,835 67.4 +8.1
Green Martin Dobson 5,372 12.1 +8.6
Conservative Jackson Ng 4,245 9.6 −1.3
UKIP Joe Chiffers 2,510 5.7 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Paul Childs 1,719 3.9 −18.9
TUSC Tony Mulhearn 582 1.3 +1.3
Majority 24,463 55.3 +18.8
Turnout 44,263 62.4 +10.3

Leave Vote: 27.3%

Sitting MP: Louise Ellman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Liverpool Walton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2241 (6.5%)
Labour: 24709 (72%)
Lib Dem: 4891 (14.2%)
BNP: 1104 (3.2%)
UKIP: 898 (2.6%)
TUSC: 195 (0.6%)
Others: 297 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 19818 (57.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Steve Rotheram 31,222 81.3 +9.3
UKIP Steven Flatman 3,445 9.0 +6.4
Conservative Norsheen Bhatti 1,802 4.7 -1.8
Green Jonathan Clatworthy 956 2.5 N/A
Liberal Democrat Patrick Moloney 899 2.3 −11.9
Independent Alexander Karran 56 0.1 N/A
The Pluralist Party Jonathan Bishop 23 0.1 N/A
Majority 27,777 72.3 +14.6
Turnout 38,403 61.1 +6.3

Leave Vote: 52.2%

Sitting MP: Steve Rotheram (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

7. Liverpool Wavertree

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2830 (7.5%)
Labour: 20132 (53.1%)
Lib Dem: 12965 (34.2%)
BNP: 150 (0.4%)
Green: 598 (1.6%)
UKIP: 890 (2.3%)
Independent: 149 (0.4%)
Others: 200 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7167 (18.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Luciana Berger 28,401 69.3 +16.2
Conservative James Pearson 4,098 10.0 +2.5
UKIP Adam Heatherington 3,375 8.2 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Leo Evans 2,454 6.0 -28.2
Green Peter Cranie 2,140 5.2 +3.6
TUSC David Walsh 362 0.9 New
Independent Niamh McCarthy 144 0.4 New
Majority 24,303 59.3 +40.4
Turnout 40,974 66.4 +5.8

Leave Vote: 35.26%

Sitting MP: Luciana Berger (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Liverpool West Derby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3311 (9.3%)
Labour: 22953 (64.1%)
Lib Dem: 4486 (12.5%)
UKIP: 1093 (3.1%)
Liberal: 3327 (9.3%)
Others: 614 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 18467 (51.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Stephen Twigg 30,842 75.2 +11.0
UKIP Neil Miney 3,475 8.5 +5.4
Conservative Ed McRandal 2,710 6.6 −2.6
Liberal Steve Radford 2,049 5.0 −4.3
Green Rebecca Lawson 996 2.4 N/A
Liberal Democrat Paul Twigger 959 2.3 −10.2
Majority 27,367 66.7 +16.1
Turnout 41,031 64.2 +7.5

Leave Vote: 49.82%

Sitting MP: Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Sefton Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16445 (33.9%)
Labour: 20307 (41.9%)
Lib Dem: 9656 (19.9%)
UKIP: 2055 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 3862 (8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Bill Esterson 26,359 53.8 +11.9
Conservative Valerie Allen 14,513 29.6 -4.3
UKIP Tim Power 4,879 10.0 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Paula Keaveney 2,086 4.3 -15.7
Green Lindsay Melia 1,184 2.4 +2.4
Majority 11,846 24.2
Turnout 49,021 72.4

Sitting MP: Bill Esterson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Southport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15683 (35.8%)
Labour: 4116 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 21707 (49.6%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6024 (13.8%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat John Pugh 13,652 31.0 −18.7
Conservative Damien Moore 12,330 28.0 −7.9
Labour Liz Savage 8,468 19.2 +9.8
UKIP Terry Durrance 7,429 16.8 +11.7
Green Laurence Rankin 1,230 2.8 N/A
Southport Party Jacqueline Barlow 992 2.2 N/A
Majority 1,322 3.0 -10.8
Turnout 44,101 65.5 +0.4

Leave Vote: 46.3%

Sitting MP: John Pugh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

*This seat has alternated between the LibDems and Conservatives for years, although the last time the Tories won it was in 1992. Labour are nowhere here. The reason why I think the Tories may win this time is that the UKIP vote shot up last time as their expense. If half that vote returns the LibDems will find it very difficult to retain this seat.

11. St Helens North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9940 (22.3%)
Labour: 23041 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 8992 (20.2%)
UKIP: 2100 (4.7%)
Others: 483 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13101 (29.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Conor McGinn 26,378 57.0 +5.3
Conservative Paul Richardson 9,087 19.6 −2.7
UKIP Ian Smith 6,983 15.1 +10.4
Liberal Democrat Denise Aspinall 2,046 4.4 −15.8
Green Elizabeth Ward 1,762 3.8 +3.8
Majority 17,291 37.4 +8.0
Turnout 46,256 61.5 +1.7

Leave Vote: 58.39%

Sitting MP: Conor McGinn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. St Helens South & Whiston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8209 (17.8%)
Labour: 24364 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 10242 (22.2%)
BNP: 2040 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1226 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 14122 (30.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Marie Rimmer 28,950 59.8 +6.9
Conservative Gillian Keegan 7,707 15.9 −1.9
UKIP John Beirne 6,766 14.0 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Brian Spencer 2,737 5.7 −16.6
Green James Chan 2,237 4.6 +4.6
Majority 21,243 43.9 +13.3
Turnout 48,397 62.3 +3.2

Leave Vote: 56.1%

Sitting MP: Marie Rimmer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

13. Wallasey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13071 (31.4%)
Labour: 21578 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 5693 (13.7%)
UKIP: 1205 (2.9%)
Independent: 107 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8507 (20.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Angela Eagle 26,176 60.4 +8.6
Conservative Chris Clarkson 9,828 22.7 -8.7
UKIP Geoffrey Caton 5,063 11.7 +8.8
Green Julian Pratt 1,288 3.0 +3.0
Liberal Democrat Kris Brown 1,011 2.3 -11.3
Majority 16,348 37.7 +17.3
Turnout 43,366 66.2 +3.0

Leave Vote: 52.5%

Sitting MP: Angela Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hard to believe this was ever a Conservative seat.

14. Wirral South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15745 (39.5%)
Labour: 16276 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 6611 (16.6%)
UKIP: 1274 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 531 (1.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alison McGovern 20,165 48.2 +7.4
Conservative John Bell 15,566 37.2 −2.2
UKIP David Scott 3,737 8.9 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Jewkes 1,474 3.5 −13.0
Green Paul Cartlidge 895 2.1 +2.1
Majority 4,599 11.0
Turnout 41,837 73.5

Leave Vote: 45.5%

Sitting MP: Alison McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A very difficult seat to call. The LibDem vote last time went to Labour. Could some of it return this time? The UKIP vote here is not huge. Alison McGovern has got a good reputation and if anyone can hold this seat I expect her to.

15. Wirral West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16726 (42.5%)
Labour: 14290 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 6630 (16.8%)
UKIP: 899 (2.3%)
Independent: 506 (1.3%)
Others: 321 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 2436 (6.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Margaret Greenwood 18,898 45.1 +8.9
Conservative Esther McVey 18,481 44.2 +1.7
UKIP Hilary Jones 2,772 6.6 +4.3
Liberal Democrat Peter Reisdorf 1,433 3.4 −13.4
Independent David James 274 0.7 -0.1
Majority 417 1.0
Turnout 41,858 75.6

Leave Vote: 42.6%

Sitting MP: Margaret Greenwood (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Esther McVey’s former seat. I expect it to return to the Tory fold.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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