General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 26. London - East

29 Apr 2017 at 20:26

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 6
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 5

Barking

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8073 (17.8%)
Labour: 24628 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 3719 (8.2%)
BNP: 6620 (14.6%)
Green: 317 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1300 (2.9%)
Christian: 482 (1.1%)
Independent: 77 (0.2%)
Others: 127 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 16555 (36.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Margaret Hodge 24,826 57.7 +3.4
UKIP Roger Gravett 9,554 22.2 +19.3
Conservative Mina Rahman13 7,019 16.3 −1.5
Green Tony Rablen 879 2.0 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Peter Wilcock 562 1.3 −6.9
TUSC Joseph Mambuliya14 183 0.4 N/A
Majority 15,272 35.5 -1.0
Turnout 43,023 58.2 -3.2

Leave Vote: 59.6%

Sitting MP: Margaret Hodge (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Bethnal Green & Bow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7071 (13.9%)
Labour: 21784 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 10210 (20.1%)
BNP: 1405 (2.8%)
Green: 856 (1.7%)
Respect: 8532 (16.8%)
Independent: 277 (0.5%)
Others: 593 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 11574 (22.8%)

2015 Result:
Rushanara Ali Labour 32,387 61.2 +18.3
Matthew Smith Conservative 8,070 15.2 +1.3
Alistair Polson Green 4,906 9.3 +7.6
Pauline McQueen UKIP 3,219 6.1 N/A
Teena Lashmore Liberal Democrat 2,395 4.5 −15.6
Glyn Robbins TUSC 949 1.8 N/A
M Rowshan Ali Communities United 356 0.7 N/A
Jonathan Dewey CISTA 303 0.6 N/A
Alasdair Henderson15 Whig 203 0.4 N/A
Elliot Ball The 30–50 Coalition 78 0.1 N/A
Jason Pavlou Red Flag Anti-Corruption 58 0.1 N/A
Majority: 24,317 (45.9%) +23.1
Swing: 8.5% from Con to Lab

Leave Vote: 30.9%

Sitting MP: Rushanara Ali (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Dagenham & Rainham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15183 (34.3%)
Labour: 17813 (40.3%)
Lib Dem: 3806 (8.6%)
BNP: 4952 (11.2%)
Green: 296 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1569 (3.5%)
Christian: 305 (0.7%)
Independent: 308 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2630 (5.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jon Cruddas 17,830 41.4 +1.1
UKIP Peter Harris 12,850 29.8 +26.3
Conservative Julie Marson 10,492 24.4 -10.0
Green Kate Simpson8 806 1.9 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Denise Capstick910 717 1.7 -6.9
BNP Tess Culnane 151 0.4 -10.8
Independent Terry London 133 0.3 +0.3
English Democrat Kim Gandy 71 0.2 +0.2
Majority 4,980 11.6 +5.7
Turnout 43,050 62.3 -0.9

Leave Vote: 70.34

Sitting MP: Jon Cruddas (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat has threatened to go Tory for some time and in 2010 it nearly did. In 2015 UKIP surprised everyone by coming second. Their vote is likely to diminish massively in this election to the benefit of the Conservatives.

East Ham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7645 (15.2%)
Labour: 35471 (70.4%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (11.6%)
Green: 586 (1.2%)
English Dem: 822 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 27826 (55.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Stephen Timms 40,563 77.6 +7.2
Conservative Samir Jassal 6,311 12.1 −3.1
UKIP Daniel Oxley 2,622 5.0 N/A
Green Tamsin Omond7 1,299 2.5 +1.3
Liberal Democrat David Thorpe 856 1.6 −10.0
Communities United Mohammed Aslam 409 0.8 N/A
TUSC Lois Austin 8 230 0.4 N/A
Majority 34,252 65.5 +10.3
Turnout 52,290 59.8 +4.2

Leave Vote: 46.3%

Sitting MP: Stephen Timms (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hackney South & Shoreditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5800 (13.5%)
Labour: 23888 (55.7%)
Lib Dem: 9600 (22.4%)
Green: 1493 (3.5%)
UKIP: 651 (1.5%)
Liberal: 539 (1.3%)
Christian: 434 (1%)
Independent: 95 (0.2%)
Others: 358 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 14288 (33.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Meg Hillier 30,633 64.4 +8.7
Conservative Jack Tinley 6,420 13.5 0.0
Green Charlotte George 5,519 11.6 +8.6
Liberal Democrat Ben Mathis 2,186 4.6 −17.8
UKIP Angus Small 1,818 3.8 +2.3
TUSC Brian Debus 302 0.6 +0.6
CISTA Paul Birch 297 0.6 +0.6
Christian Peoples Taiwo Adewuyi 236 0.5 +0.5
Independent Russell Shaw Higgs 78 0.2 +0.2
Workers Revolutionary Bill Rogers 63 0.1 +0.1
Campaign Gordon Shrigley7 28 0.1 +0.1
Majority 24,213 50.9 +19.3
Turnout 47,580 56.0 −2.9

Leave Vote: 22.8%

Sitting MP: Meg Hillier (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hornchurch & Upminster

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27469 (51.4%)
Labour: 11098 (20.8%)
Lib Dem: 7426 (13.9%)
BNP: 3421 (6.4%)
Green: 542 (1%)
UKIP: 2848 (5.3%)
Christian: 281 (0.5%)
Independent: 305 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16371 (30.7%

2015 Result:
Conservative Angela Watkinson 27,051 49.0 -2.5
UKIP Lawrence Webb 13,977 25.3 +20.0
Labour Paul McGeary 11,103 20.1 -0.7
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Mitchell 1,501 2.7 -11.2
Green Melanie Collins 1,411 2.6 +1.5
BNP Paul Borg 193 0.3 -6.1
Majority 13,074 23.7 -11.25
Turnout 55,236 69.6 +1.6

Leave Vote: 69.8%

Sitting MP: Angela Watkinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Romford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26031 (56%)
Labour: 9077 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 5572 (12%)
BNP: 2438 (5.2%)
Green: 447 (1%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.4%)
English Dem: 603 (1.3%)
Independent: 151 (0.3%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 16954 (36.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Rosindell 25,067 51.0 −5.0
UKIP Gerard Batten 11,208 22.8 +18.4
Labour Sam Gould 10,268 20.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Ian Sanderson7 1,413 2.9 −9.1
Green Lorna Tooley8 1,222 2.5 +1.5
Majority 13,859 28.2 −8.3
Turnout 49,178 67.7 +2.4

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Rosindell 25,067 51.0 −5.0
UKIP Gerard Batten 11,208 22.8 +18.4
Labour Sam Gould 10,268 20.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Ian Sanderson7 1,413 2.9 −9.1
Green Lorna Tooley8 1,222 2.5 +1.5
Majority 13,859 28.2 −8.3
Turnout 49,178 67.7 +2.4

Leave Vote: 67.4%

Sitting MP: Andrew Rosindell
Prediction: Conservative hold

West Ham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6888 (14.7%)
Labour: 29422 (62.7%)
Lib Dem: 5392 (11.5%)
Green: 645 (1.4%)
UKIP: 766 (1.6%)
Independent: 1245 (2.7%)
Others: 2593 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 22534 (48%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lyn Brown 36,132 68.4 +5.8
Conservative Festus Akinbusoye 8,146 15.4 +0.8
UKIP Jamie McKenzie12 3,950 7.5 +5.9
Green Rachel Collinson13 2,651 5.0 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Paul Reynolds14 1,430 2.7 -8.8
Christian Peoples Andy Uzoka 369 0.7 -2.1
Communities United Cydatty Bogie 115 0.2 +0.2
Majority 27,986 53.0 +5.0
Turnout 52,793 58.2 +3.2

Leave Vote: 48%

Sitting MP: Lyn Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share: