General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 30. West Sussex

30 Apr 2017 at 14:34

WEST SUSSEX

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8

1. Arundel & South Downs

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32333 (57.8%)
Labour: 4835 (8.6%)
Lib Dem: 15642 (27.9%)
UKIP: 3172 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 16691 (29.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Herbert 34,331 60.8 +3.0
UKIP Peter Grace 8,154 14.4 +8.8
Labour Christopher Wellbelove 6,324 11.2 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Shweta Kapadia 4,062 7.2 −20.7
Green Isabel Thurston 3,606 6.4 +6.4
Majority 26,177 46.3 +16.4
Turnout 56,477 73.1 +0.9

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Nick Herbert (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Bognor Regis & Littlehampton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24087 (51.4%)
Labour: 6580 (14%)
Lib Dem: 11024 (23.5%)
BNP: 1890 (4%)
UKIP: 3036 (6.5%)
Independent: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13063 (27.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Gibb 24,185 51.3 −0.1
UKIP Graham Jones 10,241 21.7 +15.3
Labour Alan Butcher 6,508 13.8 −0.2
Liberal Democrat Francis Oppler 4,240 9.0 −14.5
Green Simon McDougall 1,942 4.1 +4.1
Majority 13,944 29.6 +1.7
Turnout 47,116 64.5 -1.7

Leave Vote: 64.8%

Sitting MP: Nick Gibb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Chichester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31427 (55.3%)
Labour: 5937 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 15550 (27.4%)
UKIP: 3873 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 15877 (28%)

2015 result:
Conservative Andrew Tyrie 32,953 57.7 +2.3
UKIP Andrew Moncreiff11 8,540 14.9 +8.1
Labour Mark Farwell12 6,933 12.1 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Andrew Smith13 4,865 8.5 −18.9
Green Jasper Richmond14 3,742 6.5 N/A
Patria Andrew Emerson 106 0.2 N/A
Majority 24,413 42.7 +14.7
Turnout 57,139 68.4 -1.0

Leave Vote: 50.73%

Sitting MP: Andrew Tyrie (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Crawley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21264 (44.8%)
Labour: 15336 (32.3%)
Lib Dem: 6844 (14.4%)
BNP: 1672 (3.5%)
Green: 598 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1382 (2.9%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5928 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Henry Smith 6 22,829 47.0 +2.3
Labour Chris Oxlade 6 16,303 33.6 +1.3
UKIP Christopher Brown7 6,979 14.4 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Sarah Osborne8 1,339 2.8 -11.6
Green Guy Hudson9 1,100 2.3 +1.0
Majority 6,526 13.4 +2.3
Turnout 48,550 65.7 +0.4

Leave Vote: 58.4%

Sitting MP: Henry Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Widely tipped to lose last time, instead Henry Smith increased his majority. He’s likely to do so again.

5. East Worthing & Shoreham

Conservative: 23458 (48.5%)
Labour: 8087 (16.7%)
Lib Dem: 12353 (25.5%)
Green: 1126 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2984 (6.2%)
English Dem: 389 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 11105 (22.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tim Loughton 24,686 49.5 +1.0
Labour Tim Macpherson 9,737 19.5 +2.8
UKIP Mike J. Glennon 8,267 16.6 +10.4
Liberal Democrat Bob Smytherman 3,360 6.7 −18.8
Green James Doyle 2,605 5.2 +2.9
National Health Action Carl Walker 1,243 2.5 N/A
Majority 14,949 30.0 +7.1
Turnout 49,898 67.2 +1.8

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Tim Loughton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Horsham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jeremy Quin11 32,627 57.3 +4.6
UKIP Roger Arthur1213 7,969 14.0 +8.9
Liberal Democrat Morwen Millson 6,647 11.7 −20.5
Labour Martyn Davis14 6,499 11.4 +3.9
Green Darrin Green15 2,198 3.9 +2.8
Something New James Smith16 375 0.7 +0.7
Peace Jim Duggan17 307 0.5 +0.1
Independent Jim Rae18 303 0.5 +0.5
Majority 24,658 43.3
Turnout 56,925 72.8

Leave Vote: 49.5%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Quin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Mid Sussex

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nicholas Soames 32,268 56.1 +5.4
Labour Greg Mountain 7,982 13.9 +7.3
UKIP Toby Brothers 6,898 12.0 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Daisy Cooper7 6,604 11.5 −26.0
Green Miranda Diboll8 2,453 4.3 +3.1
Independent Beki Adam9 958 1.7 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Baron Von Thunderclap 329 0.6 +0.1
Majority 24,286 42.2
Turnout 57,492 72.3

Leave Vote: 46.4%

Sitting MP: Sir Nicholas Soames (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Worthing West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25416 (51.7%)
Labour: 5800 (11.8%)
Lib Dem: 13687 (27.9%)
Green: 996 (2%)
UKIP: 2924 (6%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11729 (23.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Bottomley 26,124 51.5 −0.3
UKIP Timothy Cross 9,269 18.3 +12.3
Labour Jim Deen 7,955 15.7 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Hazel Thorpe 4,477 8.8 −19.0
Green David Aherne 2,938 5.8 +3.8
Majority 16,855 33.2
Turnout 50,763 67.1 +2.4

Leave Vote: 56.0%

Sitting MP: Sir Peter Bottomley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE

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