General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 33. London - South West

LONDON SOUTH WEST

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1, LibDem 2

Battersea

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23103 (47.3%)
Labour: 17126 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 7176 (14.7%)
Green: 559 (1.1%)
UKIP: 505 (1%)
Independent: 155 (0.3%)
Others: 168 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5977 (12.2%)

2015 Results:
Conservative Jane Ellison 26,730 52.4 +5.0
Labour Will Martindale ⁸ 18,792 36.8 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Luke Taylor ⁹ 2,241 4.4 -10.3
Green Joe Stuart ⁸ 1,682 3.3 +2.2
UKIP Christopher Howe ⁸ 1,586 3.1 +2.1
Majority 7,938 15.6 +3.4
Turnout 51,031 67.0 +1.3

Leave Vote: 22%

Sitting MP: Jane Ellison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Kingston & Surbiton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20868 (36.5%)
Labour: 5337 (9.3%)
Lib Dem: 28428 (49.8%)
Green: 555 (1%)
UKIP: 1450 (2.5%)
Others: 473 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 7560 (13.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Berry 23,249 39.2 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Ed Davey 20,415 34.5 -15.3
Labour Lee Godfrey 8,574 14.5 +5.1
UKIP Ben Roberts 4,321 7.3 +4.8
Green Clare Keogh 2,322 3.9 +2.9
Christian Peoples Daniel Gill 198 0.3 -0.1
TUSC Laurel Fogarty 174 0.3 N/A
Majority 2,834 4.8
Turnout 59,253 72.9 +2.5

Leave Vote: 40.8%

Sitting MP: James Berry (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain

Ed Davey won this seat in 1997 with a wafer thin majority of 56, which rose to more than 15,000 in 2001. But since then the Conservative vote has been on the rise. Davey has only managed to win with such handsome majorities because he has squeezed the Labour vote from 23% down to 9%. In 2015 the Labour vote rose to 14.5%. If Davey can squeeze it again he wins. James Berry was a Remain supporter but that might not be enough to save him, especially if the Greens stand down, as they are threatening to do.

Mitcham & Morden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11056 (25.2%)
Labour: 24722 (56.4%)
Lib Dem: 5202 (11.9%)
BNP: 1386 (3.2%)
Green: 381 (0.9%)
UKIP: 857 (2%)
Independent: 155 (0.4%)
Others: 38 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 13666 (31.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Siobhain McDonagh 27,380 60.7 +4.2
Conservative Paul Holmes 10,458 23.2 −2.1
UKIP Richard Hilton 4,287 9.5 +7.5
Green Mason Redding 1,422 3.2 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Diana Coman 1,378 3.1 −8.8
Christian Peoples Des Coke 217 0.5 N/A
Majority 16,922 37.5 +6.3
Turnout 45,142 65.9 −1.1

Leave Vote: 49%

Sitting MP: Siobhan McDonough (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Putney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21223 (52%)
Labour: 11170 (27.4%)
Lib Dem: 6907 (16.9%)
BNP: 459 (1.1%)
Green: 591 (1.4%)
UKIP: 435 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10053 (24.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Justine Greening 23,018 53.8 +0.8
Labour Sheila Boswell 12,838 30.0 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Andrew Hallett 2,717 6.3 −10.6
Green Christopher Poole¹¹ 2,067 4.8 +3.4
UKIP Patricia Ward 1,989 4.6 +3.5
Animal Welfare Guy Dessoy 184 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,180 23.8 -0.8
Turnout 42,813 67.0 +2.6

Leave Vote: 27.8%
Sitting MP: Justine Greening (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Richmond Park

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29461 (49.7%)
Labour: 2979 (5%)
Lib Dem: 25370 (42.8%)
Green: 572 (1%)
UKIP: 669 (1.1%)
Independent: 84 (0.1%)
Others: 133 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4091 (6.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Zac Goldsmith 34,404 58.2 +8.5
Liberal Democrat Robin Meltzer 11,389 19.3 -23.5
Labour Sachin Patel¹² 7,296 12.3 +7.3
Green Andrée Frieze¹³ 3,548 6.0 +5.0
UKIP Sam Naz¹⁴ 2,464 4.2 +3.0
Majority 23,015 38.9 +32.0
Turnout 59,101 76.5 -0.4

Leave Vote: 28.7%

2016 By-Election Result:
Liberal Democrat Sarah Olney 20,510 49.6 +30.4
Independent Zac Goldsmith 18,638 45.1 -13[n 7]
Labour Christian Wolmar 1,515 3.6 -8.6
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 184 0.4 N/A
Independent Fiona Syms 173 0.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Dominic Stockford 164 0.4 N/A
One Love Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir 67 0.1 N/A
No label David Powell 32 0.08 N/A
Majority 1,872 4.5
Turnout 41,367 53.4 -23.0

Sitting MP: Sarah Olney (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This is not a by-election and the LibDems are going to find it difficult to hold this seat, even though the Greens have stood down. People forget that at the last election Zac Goldsmith got more than 30k votes and won with a 24k majority. I’d be very surprised to find Sarah Olney winning on June 8th, but I suppose stranger things have happened.

Sutton & Cheam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20548 (42.4%)
Labour: 3376 (7%)
Lib Dem: 22156 (45.7%)
BNP: 1014 (2.1%)
Green: 246 (0.5%)
UKIP: 950 (2%)
English Dem: 106 (0.2%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1608 (3.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Paul Scully 20,732 41.5 -0.8
Liberal Democrat Paul Burstow 16,811 33.7 -12.0
Labour Emily Brothers⁹ 5,546 11.1 +4.2
UKIP Angus Dalgleish 5,341 10.7 +8.7
Green Maeve Tomlinson 1,051 2.1 +1.6
National Health Action Dave Ash¹⁰ 345 0.7 n/a
TUSC Pauline Gorman 79 0.2 n/a
Majority 3,921 7.9
Turnout 49,905 72.1 -0.7

Leave Vote: 51.3%

Sitting MP: Paul Scully (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold

I’m split on this one. Paul Scully won by more than anyone thought last time, and there’s a substantial UKIP vote to eat into, but the LibDems have always been strong here. If Paul Burstow was restanding I might have put this down as a LibDem re-gain, but he’s not, so I won’t.

Twickenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20343 (34.1%)
Labour: 4583 (7.7%)
Lib Dem: 32483 (54.4%)
BNP: 654 (1.1%)
Green: 674 (1.1%)
UKIP: 868 (1.5%)
Others: 116 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12140 (20.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tania Mathias 25,580 41.3 +7.2
Liberal Democrat Vince Cable 23,563 38.0 −16.4
Labour Nick Grant 7,129 11.5 +3.8
UKIP Barry Edwards 3,069 4.9 +3.5
Green Tanya Williams 2,463 4.0 +2.8
Christian Dominic Stockford 174 0.3 n/a
Magna Carta David Wedgwood 26 0.0 N/A
Majority 2,017 3.3
Turnout 62,004 77.3 +2.5

Leave Vote: 33.3%
Sitting MP: Tania Mathias (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain

This was one of the shocks of election night 2015. Vince Cable regaining this seat is by no means a foregone conclusion, but if the LibDems want to have any sort of revival, it’s something he needs to do. If I were him I’d be spending every hour in Twickenham and avoid the media spotlight. I think he’ll just about squeeze home.

Wimbledon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23257 (49.1%)
Labour: 10550 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 11849 (25%)
Green: 590 (1.2%)
UKIP: 914 (1.9%)
Christian: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11408 (24.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Hammond 25,225 52.1 +3.0
Labour Andrew Judge 12,606 26.0 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Shas Sheehan 6,129 12.7 −12.3
UKIP Peter Bucklitsch 2,476 5.1 +3.2
Green Charles Barraball 1,986 4.1 +2.9
Majority 12,619 26.1 +2.0
Turnout 48,422 73.5 +0.5

Leave Vote: 27.3%

Sitting MP: Stephen Hammond (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE