General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 36. Devon

DEVON

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 11, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 11, Lab 1

1. Central Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27737 (51.5%)
Labour: 3715 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 18507 (34.4%)
Green: 1044 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2870 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 9230 (17.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mel Stride 28,436 52.2 +0.7
UKIP John Conway 7,171 13.2 +7.8
Labour Lynne Richards⁷ 6,985 12.8 +5.9
Liberal Democrat Alex White 6,643 12.2 −22.2
Green Andy Williamson 4,866 8.9 +7.0
Independent Arthur Price 347 0.6 N/A
Majority 21,265 39.0
Turnout 54,448 74.9

Leave Vote: 50.9%

Sitting MP: Mel Stride (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. East Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25662 (48.3%)
Labour: 5721 (10.8%)
Lib Dem: 16548 (31.2%)
Green: 815 (1.5%)
UKIP: 4346 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 9114 (17.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Hugo Swire 25,401 46.4 −1.9
Independent Claire Wright 13,140 24.0 N/A
UKIP Andrew Chapman 6,870 12.5 +4.4
Labour Steve Race⁵ 5,591 10.2 −0.6
Liberal Democrat Stuart Mole 3,715 6.8 −24.4
Majority 12,261 22.4
Turnout 54,717 73.7

Leave Vote: 50.4%

Sitting MP: Hugo Swire (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Exeter

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17221 (33%)
Labour: 19942 (38.2%)
Lib Dem: 10581 (20.3%)
BNP: 673 (1.3%)
Green: 792 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1930 (3.7%)
Liberal: 1108 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 2721 (5.2%

2015 Result:
Labour Ben Bradshaw 25,062 46.4 +8.2
Conservative Dom Morris 17,879 33.1 +0.1
UKIP Keith Crawford 5,075 9.4 +5.7
Green Diana Moore 3,491 6.5 +4.9
Liberal Democrat Joel Mason 2,321 4.3 −16.2
TUSC Ed Potts 190 0.4 N/A
Majority 7,183 13.3 +8.1
Turnout 54,018 70.2 +2.5

Leave Vote: 44.8%

Sitting MP: Ben Bradshaw (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The result here will depend on whether the LibDems can win back the vote they lost so dramatically last time. To be honest I have no idea whether that will happen or not, but given that this is a Remain supporting constituency anything is possible. If the Labour vote goes down a few thousand and the Tories can win back a few thousand from UKIP anything is possible. This seat was a Tory seat for many years in the 80s and 90s and it could be again. But I am going to play safe on this one. Bradshaw has a good reputation locally and may just survive the tsunami.

4. Newton Abbot

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20774 (43%)
Labour: 3387 (7%)
Lib Dem: 20251 (41.9%)
Green: 701 (1.5%)
UKIP: 3088 (6.4%)
Independent: 82 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 523 (1.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anne Marie Morris 22,794 47.5 +4.3
Liberal Democrat Richard Younger-Ross⁷ 11,506 23.9 -18.1
UKIP Rod Peers 6,726 13.9 +7.6
Labour Roy Freer⁸ 4,736 9.8 +2.8
Green Steven Smyth-Bonfield⁹ 2,216 4.6 +3.1
Majority 11,288 23.4 +22.3
Turnout 47,978 69 -0.6

Leave Vote: 56%

Sitting MP: Anne-Marie Morris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. North Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18484 (36%)
Labour: 2671 (5.2%)
Lib Dem: 24305 (47.4%)
BNP: 614 (1.2%)
Green: 697 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3720 (7.2%)
English Dem: 146 (0.3%)
Independent: 588 (1.1%)
Others: 96 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5821 (11.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Heaton-Jones⁴ 22,341 42.7 +6.7
Liberal Democrat Nick Harvey⁵ 15,405 29.4 −17.9
UKIP Steve Crowther⁶ 7,719 14.8 +7.5
Labour Mark Cann⁴ 3,699 7.1 +1.9
Green Ricky Knight⁴ 3,018 5.8 +4.4
Communist Gerry Sables 138 0.3 +0.1
Majority 6,936 13.3 +2.0
Turnout 52,453 70.2 +1.3

Leave Vote: 57%

Sitting MP: Peter Heaton-Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Sir Nick Harvey is restanding for the LibDems and if anyone can win it back he can. However, this is a very Eurosceptic area and in the end that’s what may enable the Tories to hold on.

6. Plymouth Moor View

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13845 (33.3%)
Labour: 15433 (37.2%)
Lib Dem: 7016 (16.9%)
BNP: 1438 (3.5%)
Green: 398 (1%)
UKIP: 3188 (7.7%)
Others: 208 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1588 (3.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Johnny Mercer 16,020 37.6 +4.3
Labour Alison Seabeck 14,994 35.2 -2.0
UKIP Penny Mills 9,152 21.5 +13.8
Liberal Democrat Stuart Bonar 1,265 3.0 -13.9
Green Benjamin Osborn 1,023 2.4 +2.4
TUSC Louise Parker 152 0.4 +0.4
Majority 1,026 2.4
Turnout 42,606 61.6 -0.1

Leave Vote: 68.5%

Sitting MP: Johnny Mercer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

I called this wrong last time and thought it would stay Labour. However, Mercer has been quite high profile and given this has a huge Leave vote it’s difficult to see him losing it.

7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15050 (34.3%)
Labour: 13901 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 10829 (24.7%)
Green: 904 (2.1%)
UKIP: 2854 (6.5%)
Independent: 233 (0.5%)
Others: 123 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1149 (2.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Oliver Colvile 18,120 37.8 +3.5
Labour Luke Pollard 17,597 36.7 +5.0
UKIP Roy Kettle 6,731 14.0 +7.5
Green Libby Brown 3,401 7.1 +5.0
Liberal Democrat Graham Reed 2,008 4.2 -20.5
Communist Laura-Jane Rossington 106 0.2 N/A
Majority 523 1.1
Turnout 47,963 65.5

Leave Vote: 51.3%

Sitting MP: Oliver Colville (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A genuine three way marginal in 2010, it became a two horse fight last time. Labour will be hoping to retake a seat they held during the entirety of the Blair/Brown years but the resukt here is by no means certain.

8. South West Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27908 (56%)
Labour: 6193 (12.4%)
Lib Dem: 12034 (24.1%)
Green: 641 (1.3%)
UKIP: 3084 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 15874 (31.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gary Streeter 28,500 56.6 +0.6
Labour Chaz Singh 8,391 16.7 +4.2
UKIP Robin Julian 7,306 14.5 +8.3
Liberal Democrat Tom Davies 3,767 7.5 -16.7
Green Win Scutt 2,408 4.8 +3.5
Majority 20,109 39.9 +8.1
Turnout 50,372 70.9 -0.3

Leave Vote: 55.1%

Sitting MP: Gary Streeter (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Tiverton & Honiton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27614 (50.3%)
Labour: 4907 (8.9%)
Lib Dem: 18294 (33.3%)
Green: 802 (1.5%)
UKIP: 3277 (6%)
MAJORITY: 9320 (17%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Neil Parish 29,013 54.0 +3.7
UKIP Graham Smith 8,857 16.5 +10.5
Labour Caroline Kolek 6,835 12.7 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Stephen Kearney 5,626 10.5 −22.9
Green Paul Edwards 3,415 6.4 +4.9
Majority 20,156 37.5 +20.5
Turnout 70.5

Leave Vote: 57.8%

Sitting MP: Neil Parrish (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Torbay

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19048 (38.7%)
Labour: 3231 (6.6%)
Lib Dem: 23126 (47%)
BNP: 709 (1.4%)
Green: 468 (1%)
UKIP: 2628 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 4078 (8.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kevin Foster⁵ 19,551 40.7 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Adrian Sanders 16,265 33.8 −13.2
UKIP Anthony McIntyre⁶ 6,540 13.6 +8.3
Labour Su Maddock⁷ 4,166 8.7 +2.1
Green Paula Hermes⁸ 1,557 3.2 +2.3
Majority 3,286 6.8
Turnout 48,079 63.0 −1.6

Leave Vote: 62.4%

Sitting MP: Kevin Foster (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Regarded as a surefire Tory gain in 2010 it didn’t happen, but five years later it did. The LibDems will hope to retake this, but with such a high leave vote it’s difficult to see.

11. Torridge & West Devon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25230 (45.7%)
Labour: 2917 (5.3%)
Lib Dem: 22273 (40.3%)
BNP: 766 (1.4%)
Green: 1050 (1.9%)
UKIP: 3021 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 2957 (5.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Geoffrey Cox⁹ 28,774 50.9 +5.2
UKIP Derek Sargent¹⁰ 10,371 18.3 +12.9
Liberal Democrat Paula Dolphin⁹ 7,483 13.2 −27.1
Labour Mike Sparling 6,015 10.6 +5.4
Green Cathrine Simmons⁹ 3,941 7.0 +5.1
Majority 18,403 32.5 +28.1
Turnout 56,786 72.2 +0.8

Leave Vote: 57.2%

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Cox (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. Totnes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21940 (45.9%)
Labour: 3538 (7.4%)
Lib Dem: 17013 (35.6%)
BNP: 624 (1.3%)
Green: 1181 (2.5%)
UKIP: 2890 (6%)
Independent: 390 (0.8%)
Others: 267 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4927 (10.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Sarah Wollaston¹⁷ 24,941 53.0 +7.1
UKIP Justin Haque¹⁸ 6,656 14.1 +8.1
Labour Nicky Williams¹⁸ 5,988 12.7 +5.3
Green Gill Coombs¹⁸ 4,845 10.3 +7.8
Liberal Democrat Julian Brazil¹⁹ 4,667 9.9 -25.7
Majority 18,385 38.8 +28.5
Turnout 47,097 68.6 -1.8

Leave Vote: 53.9%

Sitting MP: Dr Sarah Wollaston (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE