General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 37. Wales - Clwyd

CLWYD

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 3, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7

1. Aberconwy

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10734 (35.8%)
Labour: 7336 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 5786 (19.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 5341 (17.8%)
UKIP: 632 (2.1%)
Christian: 137 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3398 (11.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Guto Bebb 12,513 41.5 +5.7
Labour Mary Wimbury 8,514 28.2 +3.8
Plaid Cymru Dafydd Meurig 3,536 11.7 −6.1
UKIP Andrew Haigh 3,467 11.5 +9.4
Liberal Democrats Victor Babu⁷ 1,391 4.6 −14.7
Green Petra Haig⁸ 727 2.4 N/A
Majority 3,999 13.3 +2.0
Turnout 30,148 66.2 −1.0

Sitting MP: Guto Bebb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Alyn & Deeside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12885 (32.3%)
Labour: 15804 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 7308 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1549 (3.9%)
BNP: 1368 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1009 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 2919 (7.3%)

2015 Result
Labour Mark Tami 16,540 40.0 +0.4
Conservative Laura Knightly 13,197 31.9 −0.3
UKIP Blair Smillie 7,260 17.6 +15.0
Liberal Democrat Tudor Jones 1,733 4.2 −14.1
Plaid Cymru Jacqueline Hurst 1,608 3.9 +0.0
Green Alasdair Ibbotson 976 2.4 N/A
Majority 3,343 8.1 +0.8
Turnout 41,314 66.6 +1.1

Sitting MP: Mark Tami (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Not a safe seat but there are only two realistic outcomes here. A Labour hold or a Tory gain. Yes, you read that right. This is a seat where UKIP were apparently leeching votes off Labour. Those votes may well go to the Tories this time.

3. Clwyd South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10477 (30.2%)
Labour: 13311 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 5965 (17.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3009 (8.7%)
BNP: 1100 (3.2%)
UKIP: 819 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 2834 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Susan Elan Jones 13,051 37.2 −1.2
Conservative David Nicholls ⁷ 10,649 30.4 +0.2
UKIP Mandy Jones 5,480 15.6 +13.3
Plaid Cymru Mabon ap Gwynfor 3,620 10.3 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Bruce Roberts 1,349 3.8 −13.4
Green Duncan Rees 915 2.6 N/A
Majority 2,402 6.9 -1.3
Turnout 35,064 63.8 −0.7

Sitting MP: Susan Elan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories had hopes here in 2010 and 2015. This time they could do it.

4. Clwyd West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15833 (41.5%)
Labour: 9414 (24.7%)
Lib Dem: 5801 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 5864 (15.4%)
UKIP: 864 (2.3%)
Christian: 239 (0.6%)
Independent: 96 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6419 (16.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Jones 16,463 43.3 +1.7
Labour Gareth Thomas 9,733 25.6 +0.9
UKIP Warwick Nicholson 4,988 13.1 +10.8
Plaid Cymru Marc Jones 4,651 12.2 −3.2
Liberal Democrat Sarah Lesiter-Burgess 1,387 3.6 −11.6
Socialist Labour Bob English 612 1.6 n/a
Above and Beyond Rory Jepson 194 0.5 n/a
Majority 6,730 17.7 +0.9
Turnout 38,028 64.8 -1.0

Sitting MP: David Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Delyn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12811 (34.6%)
Labour: 15083 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 5747 (15.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 1844 (5%)
BNP: 844 (2.3%)
UKIP: 655 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 2272 (6.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour David Hanson 15,187 40.5 −0.2
Conservative Mark Isherwood 12,257 32.7 −1.9
UKIP Nigel Williams 6,150 16.4 +14.6
Plaid Cymru Paul Rowlinson 1,803 4.8 −0.2
Liberal Democrat Tom Rippeth 1,380 3.7 −11.9
Green Kay Roney 680 1.8 N/A
Majority 2,930 7.8 +1.7
Turnout 37,457 69.8 +0.6

Sitting MP: David Hanson (Lab)
Prediction Conservative gain

A straight Labour/Tory fight here, one which David Hanson won in2015. However, there is little room for complacency as his majority has reduced from more than 11,000 to 2930. UKIP have done well in this seat in all sorts of elections. This seat is more likely to go Tory than not.

6. Vale of Clwyd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12508 (35.2%)
Labour: 15017 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 4472 (12.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2068 (5.8%)
BNP: 827 (2.3%)
UKIP: 515 (1.4%)
Others: 127 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2509 (7.1%

2015 Result:
James Davies 13,760 39.0 +3.8
Labour Chris Ruane 13,523 38.4 −3.9
UKIP Paul Davies-Cooke⁸ 4,577 13.0 +11.5
Plaid Cymru Mair Rowlands 2,486 7.1 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Gwyn Williams⁹ 915 2.6 −10.0
Majority 237 0.7 Turnout 35,261 62.4 −1.3
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +3.9 - Clwyd

Sitting MP: James Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A surprise capture for the Conservatives in 2015, but former Labour MP Chris Ruane is standing again. Lots of UKIP votes up for grabs.

7. Wrexham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8375 (25.4%)
Labour: 12161 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 8503 (25.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2029 (6.2%)
BNP: 1134 (3.4%)
UKIP: 774 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3658 (11.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Lucas 12,181 37.2 +0.4
Conservative Andrew Mark Atkinson 10,350 31.6 +6.2
UKIP Niall Plevin-Kelly 5,072 15.5 +13.2
Plaid Cymru Carrie Harper 2,501 7.6 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Rob Walsh 1,735 5.3 −20.5
Green David Munnerley 669 2.0 N/A
Independent Brian Edwards⁷ 211 0.6 N/A
Majority 1,831 5.6 −5.5
Turnout 32,719 64.2 −0.6

Sitting MP: Ian Lucas (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Conservatives have always scratched their heads and wondered why they haven’t ever won Wrexham in recent times. They may well stop scratching on June 8th.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE