General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 38. Warwickshire

WARWICKSHIRE

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 6

1. Kenilworth & Southam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25945 (53.6%)
Labour: 6949 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 13393 (27.7%)
Green: 568 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1214 (2.5%)
Independent: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12552 (25.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jeremy Wright 28,474 58.4 +4.8
Labour Bally Singh 7,472 15.3 +1.0
UKIP Harry Cottam 5,467 11.2 +8.7
Liberal Democrat Richard Dickson 4,913 10.1 -17.6
Green Rob Ballantyne⁶ 1,956 4.0 +2.8
Monster Raving Loony Nicholas Green 370 0.8 +0.8
Digital Democracy ⁷ Jon Foster-Smith ⁸ 139 0.3 +0.3
Majority 21,002 43.0 +17.1
Turnout 48,791 74.8 -6.4

Leave Vote: 46.2%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Wright (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. North Warwickshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18993 (40.2%)
Labour: 18939 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 5481 (11.6%)
BNP: 2106 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1335 (2.8%)
English Dem: 411 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 54 (0.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Craig Tracey 20,042 42.3 +2.1
Labour Mike O’Brien 17,069 36.0 -4.0
UKIP William Cash⁵ 8,256 17.4 +14.6
Liberal Democrat Alan Beddow 978 2.1 -9.8
Green Ian Bonner 894 1.9 N/A
TUSC Eileen Hunter 138 0.3 N/A
Majority 2,973 6.3 +6.2
Turnout 47,377 67.2 -0.2

Leave Vote: 67.8%

Sitting MP: Craog Tracey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Nuneaton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18536 (41.5%)
Labour: 16467 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 6846 (15.3%)
BNP: 2797 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 2069 (4.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Marcus Jones 20,827 45.5 +4.0
Labour Vicky Fowler 15,945 34.9 -2.0
UKIP Alwyn Waine ¹⁵ 6,582 14.4 N/A
Green Keith Kondakor ¹⁶ 1,281 2.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Christina Jebb ¹⁷ 816 1.8 -13.6
TUSC Paul Reilly 194 0.4 N/A
English Democrat Steve Paxton 104 0.2 N/A
Majority 4,882 10.7 +6.1
Turnout 45,749 67.2 +1.4

Leave Vote: 64.5%

Sitting MP: Marcus Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Rugby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20901 (44%)
Labour: 14901 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 9434 (19.9%)
BNP: 1375 (2.9%)
Green: 451 (1%)
UKIP: 406 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 6000 (12.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Pawsey 24,040 49.1 +5.0
Labour Claire Edwards 13,695 27.9 -3.5
UKIP Gordon Davies 6,855 14.0 +13.1
Liberal Democrat Ed Goncalves 2,776 5.8 -14.1
Green Terry White 1,415 2.9 +1.9
TUSC Peter McLaren 225 0.5 N/A
Majority 10,345 21.1 +8.5
Turnout 49,006 70.1 +1.2

Leave Vote: 58.6%

Sitting MP: Mark Pawsey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Stratford on Avon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26052 (51.5%)
Labour: 4809 (9.5%)
Lib Dem: 14706 (29.1%)
BNP: 1097 (2.2%)
Green: 527 (1%)
UKIP: 1846 (3.7%)
English Dem: 473 (0.9%)
Independent: 1032 (2%)
MAJORITY: 11346 (22.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nadhim Zahawi 29,674 57.7 +6.1
UKIP Edward Fila 6,798 13.2 +9.6
Labour Jeff Kenner 6,677 13.0 +3.5
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Adams 6,182 12.0 −17.1
Green Dominic Giles 2,128 4.1 +3.1
Majority 22,876 44.5 +22.1
Turnout 51,459 72.6 -0.1

Leave Vote: 51%

Sitting MP: Nadhim Zahawi (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Warwick & Leamington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20876 (42.6%)
Labour: 17363 (35.4%)
Lib Dem: 8977 (18.3%)
Green: 693 (1.4%)
UKIP: 926 (1.9%)
Independent: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3513 (7.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris White 24,249 47.9 Increase 5.4
Labour Lynnette Kelly 17,643 34.9 Decrease 0.5
UKIP Alastair MacBrayne⁶ 4,183 8.3 Increase 6.4
Liberal Democrat Haseeb Arif 2,512 5.0 Decrease 13.3
Green Azzees Minott 1,994 3.9 Increase 2.1
Majority 6,606 13.1 Increase 5.9
Turnout 50,581 70.7 Decrease 0.3

Leave Vote: 41.6%

Sitting MP: Chris White (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE