General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 39: Herefordshire & Worcestershire

HEREFORDSHIRE & WORCESTERSHIRE

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June: Con 8

1. Hereford & South Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22366 (46.2%)
Labour: 3506 (7.2%)
Lib Dem: 19885 (41.1%)
BNP: 986 (2%)
UKIP: 1638 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 2481 (5.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jesse Norman 24,844 52.6 Increase 6.3
UKIP Nigel Ely⁸ 7,954 16.8 Increase 13.4
Labour Anna Coda 6,042 12.8 Increase 5.5
Liberal Democrat Lucy Hurds⁹ 5,002 10.6 Decrease 30.5
Green Diana Toynbee ¹⁰ 3,415 7.2 Increase 7.2
Majority 16,890 35.7 Increase 30.6
Turnout 47,257 66.8 Decrease 0.9

Leave Vote: 60.4%
Sitting MP: Jesse Norman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. North Herefordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24631 (51.8%)
Labour: 3373 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 14744 (31%)
Green: 1533 (3.2%)
UKIP: 2701 (5.7%)
Independent: 586 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 9887 (20.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bill Wiggin 26,716 55.6 Increase 3.9
UKIP Jonathan Oakton 6,720 14.0 Increase 8.3
Liberal Democrat Jeanie Falconer 5,768 12.0 Decrease 19.0
Labour Sally Prentice 5,478 11.4 Increase 4.3
Green Daisy Blench 3,341 7.0 Increase 3.7
Majority 19,996 41.6 Increase 20.8
Turnout 42,545 72.0 Increase 0.5

Leave Vote: 58%

Sitting MP: Bill Wiggin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Bromsgrove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22558 (43.7%)
Labour: 11250 (21.8%)
Lib Dem: 10124 (19.6%)
BNP: 1923 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2950 (5.7%)
Independent: 336 (0.7%)
Others: 2489 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 11308 (21.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Sajid Javid 28,133 53.8 Increase 10.2
Labour Tom Ebbutt 11,604 22.2 Increase 0.4
UKIP Stuart Cross 8,163 15.6 Increase 9.9
Liberal Democrat Bart Ricketts 2,616 5.0 Decrease 14.6
Green Giovanni Esposito 1,729 3.3 Increase 3.3
Majority 16,529 31.6 Increase 9.7
Turnout 52,245 71.2 Increase 0.6

Leave Vote: 55.4%

Sitting MP: Sajid Javid (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Mid Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27770 (54.5%)
Labour: 7613 (14.9%)
Lib Dem: 11906 (23.4%)
Green: 593 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3049 (6%)
MAJORITY: 15864 (31.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nigel Huddleston 29,763 57.0 Increase 2.5
UKIP Richard Keel⁹ 9,213 17.7 Increase 11.7
Labour Robin Lunn 7,548 14.5 Decrease 0.5
Liberal Democrat Margaret Rowley¹⁰ 3,750 7.2 Decrease 16.2
Green Neil Franks¹¹ 1,933 3.7 Increase 2.5
Majority 20,532 39.3
Turnout 52,225 71.5 Increase 0.9

Leave Vote: 59.4%

Sitting MP: Nigel Huddleston (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Redditch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19138 (43.5%)
Labour: 13317 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 7750 (17.6%)
BNP: 1394 (3.2%)
Green: 393 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1497 (3.4%)
English Dem: 255 (0.6%)
Christian: 101 (0.2%)
Independent: 100 (0.2%)
Others: 73 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5821 (13.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Karen Lumley 20,771 47.1 +3.6
Labour Rebecca Blake 13,717 31.1 +0.9
UKIP Peter Jewell 7,133 16.2 +12.8
Liberal Democrat Hilary Myers 1,349 3.1 -14.5
Green Kevin White 960 2.2 +1.3
Independent Seth Colton 168 0.4 +0.4
Majority 7,054 16.0

Leave Vote: 61%

Sitting MP: Karen Lumley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. West Worcestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27213 (50.3%)
Labour: 3661 (6.8%)
Lib Dem: 20459 (37.8%)
Green: 641 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2119 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 6754 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Harriett Baldwin 30,342 56.1 Increase 5.8
UKIP Richard Chamings⁸ 7,764 14.4 Increase 10.4
Labour Daniel Walton 7,244 13.4 Increase 6.6
Liberal Democrat Dennis Wharton 5,245 9.7 Decrease 28.1
Green Julian Roskams 3,505 6.5 Increase 5.3
Majority 22,578 41.7 Increase 29.0
Turnout 54,100 73.7

Leave Vote: 52.5%

Sitting MP: Harriett Baldwin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Worcester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19358 (39.5%)
Labour: 16376 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 9525 (19.4%)
BNP: 1219 (2.5%)
Green: 735 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.8%)
Independent: 129 (0.3%)
Others: 272 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 2982 (6.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robin Walker 22,534 45.3 +5.8
Labour Joy Squires⁹ 16,888 34.0 +0.5
UKIP James Goad¹⁰ 6,378 12.8 +10.1
Green Louis Stephen 2,024 4.1 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Federica Smith¹¹ 1,677 3.4 -16.1
TUSC Pete McNally¹² 153 0.3 +0.3
Independent Mark Shuker¹³ 69 0.1 +0.1
Majority 5,646 11.4
Turnout 70.0

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Robin Walker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Wyre Forest

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18793 (36.9%)
Labour: 7298 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 6040 (11.9%)
BNP: 1120 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1498 (2.9%)
Health Concern: 16150 (31.7%)
MAJORITY: 2643 (5.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Garnier 22,394 45.3 +8.4
Labour Matt Lamb 9,523 19.3 +4.9
UKIP Michael Wrench 7,967 16.1 +13.2
National Health Action Richard Taylor 7,221 14.6 -17.1
Liberal Democrat Andy Crick 1,228 2.5 -9.4
Green Natalie McVey 1,117 2.3 N/A
Majority 12,871 26.0
Turnout 49,440 63.8 -3.0

Leave Vote: 63.1%

Sitting MP: Mark Garnier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE