General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 40. Scotland - Glasgow Surrounds

1 May 2017 at 09:58

Scotland – Glasgow Surrounds

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: SNP 9
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 8, LibDem 1

24. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintolloch East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3407 (8.3%)
Labour: 23549 (57.2%)
Lib Dem: 3924 (9.5%)
SNP: 9794 (23.8%)
Others: 476 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 13755 (33.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stuart McDonald 29,572 59.9 +36.1
Labour Gregg McClymont 14,820 30.0 −27.2
Conservative Malcolm MacKay 3,891 7.9 −0.4
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 1,099 2.2 −7.3
Majority 14,752 29.9 n/a
Turnout 49,382 73.6 +9.3

Sitting MP: Stuart McDonald (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

25. West Dunbartonshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3242 (7.7%)
Labour: 25905 (61.3%)
Lib Dem: 3434 (8.1%)
SNP: 8497 (20.1%)
UKIP: 683 (1.6%)
Others: 505 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 17408 (41.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Martin Docherty 30,198 59.0 +38.9
Labour Co-op Gemma Doyle 16,027 31.3 -30.0
Conservative Maurice Corry 3,597 7.0 -0.6
Liberal Democrats Aileen Morton 816 1.6 -6.5
Independent Claire Muir7 503 1.0 N/A
Majority 14,171 27.7 n/a 1
Turnout 51,141 73.9 +9.9

Sitting MP: Martin Docherty (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

26. Inverclyde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4502 (12%)
Labour: 20993 (56%)
Lib Dem: 5007 (13.3%)
SNP: 6577 (17.5%)
UKIP: 433 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 14416 (38.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Ronnie Cowan 24,585 55.1 +37.6
Labour Iain McKenzie 13,522 30.3 -25.7
Conservative George Jabbour 4,446 10.0 -2.0
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,106 2.5 -10.8
UKIP Michael Burrows 715 1.6 +0.4
CISTA Craig Hamilton 233 0.5 n/a
Majority 11,063 24.8 n/a1
Turnout 44,607 75.2 +11.8

Sitting MP: Ronnie Cowan (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

27. Paisley & Renfrewshire South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3979 (9.9%)
Labour: 23842 (59.6%)
Lib Dem: 3812 (9.5%)
SNP: 7228 (18.1%)
Independent: 513 (1.3%)
Others: 624 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16614 (41.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Mhairi Black 23,548 50.9 +32.8
Labour Douglas Alexander 17,864 38.6 –21.0
Conservative Fraser Galloway 3,526 7.6 –2.3
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,010 2.2 –7.3
Scottish Socialist Sandra Webster 278 0.6 –0.3
Majority 5,684 12.3
Turnout 46,226 75.4 +9.1

Sitting MP: Mhairi Black (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

31. East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6613 (13%)
Labour: 26241 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5052 (9.9%)
SNP: 11738 (23%)
Green: 1003 (2%)
Independent: 299 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 14503 (28.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Lisa Cameron 33,678 55.6 +32.6
Labour Michael McCann 17,151 28.3 -23.2
Conservative Graham Simpson 7,129 11.8 -1.2
UKIP Rob Sale 1,221 2.0 N/A
Liberal Democrats Paul McGarry3 1,042 1.7 -8.2
Independent John Houston 318 0.5 -0.1
Majority 16,527 27.3
Turnout 60,539 72.8 +6.2

Sitting MP: Lisa Cameron (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

32. Lanark & Hamilton East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6981 (15%)
Labour: 23258 (50%)
Lib Dem: 5249 (11.3%)
SNP: 9780 (21%)
UKIP: 616 (1.3%)
Independent: 670 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 13478 (29%)

2015 Result:
SNP Angela Crawley 26,976 48.8 +27.8
Labour Jimmy Hood 16,876 30.5 -19.4
Conservative Alex Allison 8,772 15.9 +0.9
UKIP Donald Mackay 1,431 2.6 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Gregg Cullen 1,203 2.2 -9.1
Majority 10,100 18.3
Turnout 55,258 69.1 +6.8

Sitting MP: Angela Crawley (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

33. Airdrie & Shotts

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3133 (8.7%)
Labour: 20849 (58.2%)
Lib Dem: 2898 (8.1%)
SNP: 8441 (23.5%)
Independent: 528 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 12408 (34.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Neil Gray 23,887 53.9 +30.4
Labour Pamela Nash 15,108 34.1 −24.0
Conservative Eric Holford 3,389 7.7 −1.0
UKIP Matthew Williams 1,088 2.5 +2.5
Liberal Democrat John Love 678 1.5 −6.6
Independent Deryck Beaumont 136 0.3 N/A
Majority 8,779 19.8
Turnout 44,286 66.3 +8.8

Sitting MP: Neil Gray (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

58. East Dunbartonshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7431 (15.5%)
Labour: 16367 (34.1%)
Lib Dem: 18551 (38.7%)
SNP: 5054 (10.5%)
UKIP: 545 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2184 (4.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP John Nicolson 22,093 40.3 +29.8
Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson 19,926 36.3 -2.4
Labour Amanjit Jhund 6,754 12.3 −21.8
Conservative Andrew Polson 4,727 8.6 −6.9
Scottish Green Ross Greer 804 1.5 N/A
UKIP Wilfred Arasaratnam 567 1.0 −0.1
Majority 2,167 4.0 n/a
Turnout 54,871 81.91 +6.7

Sitting MP: John Nicholson (SNP)
Prediction: LibDem gain

This is the top LibDem target in Scotland and with a little tactical voting from Labour and the Tories she might well pull it off. John Nicholson has been one of the more high profile SNP MPs but a high national profile doesn’t always go down well locally. One to watch on election night, but I suspect Jo Swinson might win.

59. Paisley & Renfrewshire North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6381 (14.6%)
Labour: 23613 (54%)
Lib Dem: 4597 (10.5%)
SNP: 8333 (19.1%)
Independent: 550 (1.3%)
Others: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 15280 (35%)

2015 Result:
SNP Gavin Newlands 25,601 50.7 +31.7
Labour Jim Sheridan 16,525 32.7 -21.3
Conservative John Anderson 6,183 12.3 -2.3
Liberal Democrat James Speirs 1,055 2.1 -8.4
Scottish Green Ryan Morrison 703 1.4 n/a
CISTA Andy Doyle 202 0.4 n/a
TUSC Jim Halfpenny2 193 0.4 n/a
Majority 9,076 18.0
Turnout 50,462 76.2 +7.6

Sitting MP: Gavin Newlands (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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