General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 41. Fife

Scotland – Fife

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: SNP 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 6
Revised: Lib 1, SNP 5

18. Ochil & South Perthshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10342 (20.5%)
Labour: 19131 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 5754 (11.4%)
SNP: 13944 (27.6%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 689 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 5187 (10.3%)

2015 Result:
SNP Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh 26,620 46.0 +18.4
Labour Gordon Banks 16,452 28.4 -9.5
Conservative Luke Graham 11,987 20.7 +0.2
Liberal Democrats Iliyan Stefanov 1,481 2.6 -8.8
UKIP Martin Gray 1,331 2.3 +0.9
Majority 10,168 17.6
Turnout 57,871 74.8 +7.6

Sitting MP: Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

19. North East Fife

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8715 (21.8%)
Labour: 6869 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 17763 (44.3%)
SNP: 5685 (14.2%)
UKIP: 1032 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 9048 (22.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stephen Gethins⁴ 18,523 40.9 +26.7
Liberal Democrat Tim Brett⁵ 14,179 31.3 −13.0
Conservative Huw Matthew Bell⁶ 7,373 16.3 −5.5
Labour Brian Thomson⁷ 3,476 7.7 −9.5
Scottish Green Andrew Collins⁸ 1,387 3.1 N/A
Independent Mike Scott-Hayward⁹ 325 0.7 N/A
Majority 4,344 9.6
Turnout 45,263 73.0 +6.4

Sitting MP: Stephen Gethins (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Revised: Lib gain

Stephen Gethins has had a high profile as SNP Europe spokesman and this may see him home, but a LibDem gain is certainly not out of the question here. The key for Ming Campbell’s successor is to target soft Tory votes. But in all likelihood, Gethins will hang on.

20. Glenrothes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2922 (7.2%)
Labour: 25247 (62.3%)
Lib Dem: 3108 (7.7%)
SNP: 8799 (21.7%)
UKIP: 425 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16448 (40.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Peter Grant 28,459 59.8 +38.2
Labour Melanie Ward 14,562 30.6 −31.7
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark⁶ 3,685 7.7 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Jane Ann Liston⁷ 892 1.9 −5.8
Majority 13,897 29.2
Turnout 47,598 68.2 +8.5

Sitting MP: Peter Grant (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

21. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4258 (9.3%)
Labour: 29559 (64.5%)
Lib Dem: 4269 (9.3%)
SNP: 6550 (14.3%)
UKIP: 760 (1.7%)
Independent: 184 (0.4%)
Others: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 23009 (50.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Roger Mullin 27,628 52.2 +37.9
Labour Co-op Kenny Selbie 17,654 33.4 -31.2
Conservative Dave Dempsey 5,223 9.9 +0.6
UKIP Jack Neill 1,237 2.3 +0.7
Liberal Democrat Callum Leslie 1,150 2.3 -7.1
Majority 9,974 18.9 n/a 1
Turnout 52,892 69.6 +7.4

Sitting MP: Roger Mullin (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

22. Dunfermline West & Fife

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3305 (6.8%)
Labour: 22639 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 17169 (35.1%)
SNP: 5201 (10.6%)
UKIP: 633 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 5470 (11.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Douglas Chapman 28,096 50.3 +39.6
Labour Thomas Docherty 17,744 31.7 -14.5
Conservative James Adam Reekie 6,623 11.9 +5.1
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton⁵ 2,232 4.0 -31.1
Scottish Green Lewis Alan Campbell⁶ 1,195 2.1 N/A
Majority 10,352 18.5
Turnout 55,890 71.6 +5.2

Sitting MP: Douglas Chapman (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

23. Falkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5698 (11.2%)
Labour: 23207 (45.7%)
Lib Dem: 5225 (10.3%)
SNP: 15364 (30.3%)
UKIP: 1283 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 7843 (15.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP John McNally 34,831 57.7 +27.5
Labour Karen Whitefield 15,130 25.1 -20.6
Conservative Alison Harris 7,325 12.1 +0.9
UKIP David Coburn 1,829 3.0 +0.5
Liberal Democrats Galen Milne 1,225 2.0 -8.3
Majority 19,701 32.6
Turnout 60,340 72.4 +10.4

Sitting MP: John McNally (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE