General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 42: Scotland - Edinburgh

1 May 2017 at 12:42

Scotland – Edinburgh

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: SNP 8, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 9
Revised: Lab 1, Lib 1, SNP 7

34. Linlithgow & Falkirk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (11.9%)
Labour: 25634 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 6589 (12.8%)
SNP: 13081 (25.4%)
MAJORITY: 12553 (24.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Martyn Day6 32,055 52.0 +26.6
Labour Michael Connarty6 19,121 31.0 −18.8
Conservative Sandy Batho6 7,384 12.0 +0.1
UKIP Alistair Forrest6 1,682 2.7 n/a
Liberal Democrats Emma Farthing-Sykes7 1,252 2.0 −10.8
National Front Neil McIvor6 103 0.2 n/a
Majority 12,934 21.0
Turnout 61,597 70.8 +7.2

Sitting MP: Martyn Day (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

35. Livingston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5158 (10.8%)
Labour: 23215 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 5316 (11.1%)
SNP: 12424 (25.9%)
BNP: 960 (2%)
UKIP: 443 (0.9%)
Independent: 149 (0.3%)
Others: 242 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10791 (22.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Hannah Bardell 32,736 56.9 +31.0
Labour Graeme Morrice7 15,893 27.6 −20.8
Conservative Chris Donnelly 5,929 10.3 −0.5
UKIP Nathan Somerville8 1,757 3.1 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas9 1,232 2.1 −9.0
Majority 16,843 29.3
Turnout 57,547 69.9 +6.8

Sitting MP: Hannah Bardell (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

36. Edinburgh West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10767 (23.2%)
Labour: 12881 (27.7%)
Lib Dem: 16684 (35.9%)
SNP: 6115 (13.2%)
MAJORITY: 3803 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Michelle Thomson 21,378 39.0 +25.8
Liberal Democrats Mike Crockart 18,168 33.1 −2.8
Conservative Lindsay Paterson 6,732 12.3 −10.9
Labour Cameron Day 6,425 11.7 −16.0
Scottish Green Pat Black 1,140 2.1 N/A
UKIP Otto Inglis 1,015 1.9 n/a
Majority 3,210 5.9
Turnout 54,858 76.5 +5.2

Sitting MP: Michelle Thomson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Revised: Lib gain

Given Michelle Thomson’s, er, troubles, this might well depress the SNP vote here, even though she’s not standing again. Could well be a LibDem gain.

37. Edinburgh South West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11026 (24.3%)
Labour: 19473 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8194 (18%)
SNP: 5530 (12.2%)
Green: 872 (1.9%)
Others: 367 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8447 (18.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Joanna Cherry4 22,168 43.0 +30.8
Labour Ricky Henderson5 14,033 27.2 -15.6
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst6 10,444 20.2 -4.0
Scottish Green Richard Doherty7 1,965 3.8 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Daniel Farthing-Sykes8 1,920 3.7 -14.3
UKIP Richard Lucas9 1,072 2.1 n/a
Majority 8,135 15.8
Turnout 51,602 71.5 +3.0

Sitting MP: Joanna Cherry (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Not the safest of seats for the SNP, but it’s difficult to see Labour coming back here given their poll ratings.

38. Edinburgh North & Leith

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7079 (14.9%)
Labour: 17740 (37.5%)
Lib Dem: 16016 (33.8%)
SNP: 4568 (9.6%)
Green: 1062 (2.2%)
Liberal: 389 (0.8%)
TUSC: 233 (0.5%)
Independent: 128 (0.3%)
Others: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1724 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Deidre Brock 23,742 40.9 +31.3
Labour Co-op Mark Lazarowicz7 18,145 31.3 -6.2
Conservative Iain McGill8 9,378 16.2 +1.3
Scottish Green Sarah Beattie-Smith9 3,140 5.4 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart10 2,634 4.5 -29.3
UKIP Alan Melville11 847 1.5 n/a
Left Unity Bruce Whitehead12 122 0.2 n/a
Majority 5,597 9.6
Turnout 58,008 71.7 +3.3

Sitting MP: Deirdre Brock (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Not a massive majority, but again, is Labour really in a position to mount a serious challenge? The answer is no.

39. Edinburgh East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4358 (10.9%)
Labour: 17314 (43.4%)
Lib Dem: 7751 (19.4%)
SNP: 8133 (20.4%)
Green: 2035 (5.1%)
TUSC: 274 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 9181 (23%)

2015 Result:
SNP Tommy Sheppard 23,188 49.2 +28.8
Labour Sheila Gilmore 14,082 29.9 −13.5
Conservative James McMordie 4,670 9.9 −1.0
Scottish Green Peter McColl 2,809 6.0 +0.9
Liberal Democrat Karen Utting 1,325 2.8 −16.6
UKIP Oliver Corbishley8 898 1.9 N/A
TUSC Ayesha Saleem 9 117 0.2 −0.4
Majority 9,106 19.3
Turnout 47,089 70.1 +4.7

Sitting MP: Tommy Sheppard (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

40. Edinburgh South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9452 (21.6%)
Labour: 15215 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 14899 (34%)
SNP: 3354 (7.7%)
Green: 881 (2%)
MAJORITY: 316 (0.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Murray 19,293 39.1 +4.4
SNP Neil Hay 16,656 33.8 +26.1
Conservative Miles Briggs 8,626 17.5 -4.1
Scottish Green Phyl Meyer 2,090 4.2 +2.2
Liberal Democrats Pramod Subbaraman 1,823 3.7 -30.3
UKIP Paul Marshall 601 1.2 n/a
Scottish Socialist Colin Fox 197 0.4 n/a
Majority 2,637 5.4 +4.7
Turnout 49,286 74.9 +1.1

Sitting MP: Ian Murray (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
Revised: Lab hold

The state of the Scottish Labour Party makes it highly likely this seat will fall to the SNP leaving Labour with no seats in Scotland at all. Incredible.

41. Midlothian

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4661 (11.9%)
Labour: 18449 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6711 (17.1%)
SNP: 8100 (20.6%)
Green: 595 (1.5%)
UKIP: 364 (0.9%)
TUSC: 166 (0.4%)
Independent: 196 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10349 (26.4%)

2015 Result:
SNP Owen Thompson7 24,453 50.6 +30.0
Labour Kenny Young8 14,594 30.2 −16.8
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne7 5,760 11.9 0.0
Scottish Green Ian Baxter9 1,219 2.5 +1.0
UKIP Gordon Norrie10 1,173 2.4 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Aisha Mir 1,132 2.3 −14.8
Majority 9,859 20.4
Turnout 48,331 71.2 +7.3

Sitting MP: Owen Thompson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

42. East Lothian

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9661 (19.7%)
Labour: 21919 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 8288 (16.9%)
SNP: 7883 (16%)
Green: 862 (1.8%)
UKIP: 548 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 12258 (24.9%)

2015 Result:
SNP George Kerevan 25,104 42.5 +26.5
Labour Fiona O’Donnell7 18,301 31.0 −13.6
Conservative David Roach8 11,511 19.5 −0.2
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer9 1,517 2.6 −14.3
Scottish Green Jason Rose10 1,245 2.1 +0.4
UKIP Oluf Marshall 1,178 2.0 +0.9
Independent Mike Allan 158 0.3 N/A
Majority 6,803 11.5
Turnout 59,014 74.2 +7.3

Sitting MP: George Kerevan (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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