General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 43. Scotland - Central

1 May 2017 at 17:35

Scotland – Central

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: SNP 5
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 5
Revised: Con 1, SNP 4

13. Dundee East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6177 (15.2%)
Labour: 13529 (33.3%)
Lib Dem: 4285 (10.6%)
SNP: 15350 (37.8%)
Green: 542 (1.3%)
UKIP: 431 (1.1%)
Others: 254 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 1821 (4.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stewart Hosie 28,765 59.7 +21.9
Labour Lesley Brennan 9,603 19.9 −13.4
Conservative Bill Bowman 7,206 15.0 −0.3
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 1,387 2.9 −7.7
Scottish Green Helen Grayshan 895 1.9 +0.5
CISTA Lesley Parker-Hamilton 225 0.5 N/A
TUSC Carlo Morelli 104 0.2 N/A
Majority 19,162 39.8 +34.3
Turnout 48,185 71.0 +9.0

Sitting MP: Stewart Hosie (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

14. Dundee West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3461 (9.3%)
Labour: 17994 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 4233 (11.4%)
SNP: 10716 (28.9%)
TUSC: 357 (1%)
Independent: 365 (1%)
MAJORITY: 7278 (19.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Chris Law 27,684 61.9 +33.0
Labour Michael Marra 10,592 23.7 −24.8
Conservative Nicola Ross 3,852 8.6 −0.7
Scottish Green Pauline Hinchion5 1,225 2.7 n/a
Liberal Democrats Daniel Coleman6 1,057 2.4 −9.0
TUSC Jim McFarlane7 304 0.7 −0.3
Majority 17,092 38.2
Turnout 44,714 67.8 +8.8

Sitting MP: Chris Law (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

15. Perth & North Perthshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14739 (30.5%)
Labour: 7923 (16.4%)
Lib Dem: 5954 (12.3%)
SNP: 19118 (39.6%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4379 (9.1%)

2015 Result:
SNP Pete Wishart 27,379 50.5 +10.9
Conservative Alexander Stewart6 17,738 32.7 +2.2
Labour Scott Nicholson 4,413 8.1 -8.3
Liberal Democrats Peter Barrett 2,059 3.8 -8.5
Scottish Green Louise Ramsay 1,146 2.1 n/a
UKIP John Myles 1,110 2.0 n/a
Independent Xander McDade 355 0.7 n/a
Majority 9,641 17.8 +8.7
Turnout 54,200 74.8 +7.9

Sitting MP: Pete Wishart (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Revised: Con gain

Rumour is that the Tories are fighting hard to wrest this from the SNP. It would be a brave person who would put money on it though.

16. Argyll & Bute

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10861 (24%)
Labour: 10274 (22.7%)
Lib Dem: 14292 (31.6%)
SNP: 8563 (18.9%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
Independent: 272 (0.6%)
Others: 156 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3431 (7.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Brendan O’Hara 22,959 44.3 +25.3
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 14,486 27.9 −3.7
Conservative Alastair Redman 7,733 14.9 −9.1
Labour Mary Galbraith 5,394 10.4 −12.3
UKIP Caroline Santos5 1,311 2.5 N/A
Majority 8,473 16.3 N/A
Turnout 51,883 75.3 +8.0

Sitting MP: Brendan O’Hara (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

17. Stirling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11254 (24%)
Labour: 19558 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (14.5%)
SNP: 8091 (17.3%)
Green: 746 (1.6%)
UKIP: 395 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8304 (17.7%)

2015 Result:
SNP Steven Paterson 23,783 45.6 +28.3
Labour Johanna Boyd 13,303 25.5 −16.2
Conservative Stephen Kerr 12,051 23.1 −0.9
Scottish Green Mark Ruskell 1,606 3.1 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 1,392 2.7 −11.8
Majority 10,480 20.1
Turnout 52,135 77.5 +6.7

Sitting MP: Steven Paterson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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