General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 44. Scotland - North East

1 May 2017 at 17:50

Scotland – North East

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: SNP 6
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 5, Con 1

7. Banff & Buchan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11841 (30.8%)
Labour: 5382 (14%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (11.3%)
SNP: 15868 (41.3%)
BNP: 1010 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4027 (10.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Eilidh Whiteford 27,487 60.2 +18.9
Conservative Alex Johnstone 13,148 28.8 −2.0
Labour Sumon Hoque1 2,647 5.8 −8.2
Liberal Democrat David Evans 2,347 5.1 −6.2
Majority 14,339 31.4 +18.9
Turnout 45,629 66.5 +6.7

Sitting MP: Eilidh Whiteford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

8. Gordon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9111 (18.7%)
Labour: 9811 (20.1%)
Lib Dem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22.2%)
BNP: 699 (1.4%)
Green: 752 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 6748 (13.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Alex Salmond10 27,717 47.7 +25.5
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 19,030 32.7 −3.3
Conservative Colin Clark 6,807 11.7 −7.0
Labour Braden Davy 3,441 5.9 −14.2
UKIP Emily Santos11 1,166 2.0 N/A
Majority 8,687 15.0
Turnout 58,161 73.3 +6.9

Sitting MP: Alex Salmond (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

9. Aberdeen North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4666 (12.4%)
Labour: 16746 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 7001 (18.6%)
SNP: 8385 (22.2%)
BNP: 635 (1.7%)
Others: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 8361 (22.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Kirsty Blackman 24,793 56.4 +34.2
Labour Richard Baker 11,397 25.9 −18.5
Conservative Sanjoy Sen 5,304 12.1 −0.3
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 2,050 4.7 −13.9
TUSC Tyrinne Rutherford 206 0.5 +0.5
National Front Christopher Willett 186 0.4 +0.4
Majority 13,396 30.5
Turnout 43,936 64.9 +6.7

Sitting MP: Kirsty Blackman (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

10. Aberdeen South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8914 (20.7%)
Labour: 15722 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 12216 (28.4%)
SNP: 5102 (11.9%)
BNP: 529 (1.2%)
Green: 413 (1%)
Others: 138 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3506 (8.1%)

2015 Result:
SNP Callum McCaig 20,221 41.6 +29.8
Labour Anne Begg 12,991 26.8 −9.8
Conservative Ross Thomson 11,087 22.8 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Denis Rixon 2,252 4.6 −23.7
Scottish Green Dan Yeats 964 2.0 +1.0
UKIP Sandra Skinner 897 1.8 N/A
Independent Christopher Gray 139 0.3 N/A
Majority 7,230 14.9
Turnout 48,551 71.3 +4.1

Sitting MP: Callum McCaig (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

11. West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13678 (30.3%)
Labour: 6159 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 17362 (38.4%)
SNP: 7086 (15.7%)
BNP: 513 (1.1%)
UKIP: 397 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3684 (8.2%)

2015 Result:
SNP Stuart Blair Donaldson 22,949 41.6 +25.9
Conservative Alexander James Amherst Burnett 15,916 28.8 -1.4
Liberal Democrat Sir Robert Hill Smith 11,812 21.4 -17.0
Labour Barry Black 2,487 4.5 -9.1
UKIP David Michael Lansdell 1,006 1.8 +1.6
Scottish Green Richard Paul Openshaw 885 1.6 +1.6
Independent Graham Reid 141 0.3 +0.3
Majority 7,033 12.7
Turnout 55,196 75.2 +6.8

Sitting MP: Stuart Blair Donaldson (SNP)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A surprise gain for the SNP last time, this was in effect a three way marginal. It still could be, but it’s a moot point as to whether the Conservatives can really eat into the SNP vote here. But they did so in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election.

12. Angus

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11738 (30.9%)
Labour: 6535 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 4090 (10.8%)
SNP: 15020 (39.6%)
UKIP: 577 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3282 (8.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Mike Weir 24,130 54.2 +14.7
Conservative Derek Wann 12,900 29.0 −1.9
Labour Gerard McMahon 3,919 8.8 −8.4
UKIP Calum Walker 1,355 3.0 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Sanjay Samani 1,216 2.7 −8.0
Scottish Green David Mumford 965 2.2 N/A
Majority 11,230 25.2 +16.6
Turnout 44,485 67.6 +7.2

Sitting MP: Michael Weir (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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