General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 46. North Yorkshire

1 May 2017 at 19:04

NORTH YORKSHIRE

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7, Lab 1

1. Harrogate & Knaresborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24305 (45.7%)
Labour: 3413 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 23266 (43.8%)
BNP: 1094 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1056 (2%)
MAJORITY: 1039 (2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Jones 28,153 52.7 +7.0
Liberal Democrat Helen Flynn 11,782 22.1 -21.7
UKIP David Simister 5,681 10.6 +8.7
Labour Jan Williams 5,409 10.1 +3.7
Green Shan Oakes 2,351 4.4 N/A
Majority 16,371 30.7 +28.7
Turnout 53,376 69.0 -1.6

Leave Vote: 47.2%

Sitting MP: Andrew Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Richmond

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33541 (62.8%)
Labour: 8150 (15.3%)
Lib Dem: 10205 (19.1%)
Green: 1516 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 23336 (43.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Rishi Sunak 27,744 51.4 −11.4
UKIP Matthew Cooke 8,194 15.2 +15.2
Labour Mike Hill 7,124 13.2 −2.1
Liberal Democrat John Harris 3,465 6.4 −12.7
Independent John Blackie 3,348 6.2 +6.2
Green Leslie Rowe 2,313 4.3 +1.4
Independent Robin Scott 1,811 3.4 +3.4
Majority 19,550 36.2
Turnout 53,999 64.7

Leave Vote: 57.4%

Sitting MP: Rishi Sunak (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Scarborough & Whitby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21108 (42.8%)
Labour: 12978 (26.3%)
Lib Dem: 11093 (22.5%)
BNP: 1445 (2.9%)
Green: 734 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1484 (3%)
Independent: 329 (0.7%)
Others: 111 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8130 (16.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robert Goodwill 20,613 43.2 +0.3
Labour Ian McInnes 14,413 30.2 +3.9
UKIP Sam Cross 8,162 17.1 +14.1
Green David Malone 2,185 4.6 +3.1
Liberal Democrat Michael Beckett 2,159 4.5 -18.0
Alliance for Green Socialism Juliet Boddington 207 0.4 +0.2
Majority 6,200 13.0
Turnout 47,739 64.9

Sitting MP: Robert Goodwill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Selby & Ainsty

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25562 (49.4%)
Labour: 13297 (25.7%)
Lib Dem: 9180 (17.7%)
BNP: 1377 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1635 (3.2%)
English Dem: 677 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 12265 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nigel Adams 27,725 52.5 +3.1
Labour Mark Hayes 14,168 26.8 +1.1
UKIP Colin Heath 7,389 14.0 +10.8
Liberal Democrat Nicola Turner 1,920 3.6 -14.1
Green Ian Richards 1,465 2.8 N/A
TUSC Ian Wilson 137 0.3 N/A
Majority 13,557 25.7
Turnout 52,804 69.4

Leave Vote: 57.7%

Sitting MP: Nigel Adams (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Skipton & Ripon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27685 (50.6%)
Labour: 5498 (10%)
Lib Dem: 17735 (32.4%)
BNP: 1403 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1909 (3.5%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
Others: 179 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9950 (18.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Smith 30,248 55.4 +4.9
Labour Malcolm Birks 9,487 17.4 +7.3
UKIP Alan Henderson 7,651 14.0 +10.5
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 4,057 7.4 −25.0
Green Andy Brown 3,116 5.7 N/A
Majority 20,761 38.1 +19.9
Turnout 54,559 71.6 +0.9

Sitting MP: Julian Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Thirsk & Malton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20167 (52.9%)
Labour: 5169 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 8886 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2502 (6.6%)
Liberal: 1418 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 11281 (29.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kevin Hollinrake 27,545 52.6 -0.3
Labour Alan Avery 8,089 15.4 +1.9
UKIP Toby Horton 7,805 14.9 +8.3
Liberal Democrat Di Keal 4,703 9.0 -14.3
Green Chris Newsam 2,404 4.6 N/A
Liberal John Clark 1,127 2.2 -1.6
Independent Philip Tate 692 1.3 N/A
Majority 19,456 37.2
Turnout 52,365 67.6

Sitting MP: Kevin Hollinrake (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. York Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12122 (26.1%)
Labour: 18573 (40%)
Lib Dem: 11694 (25.2%)
BNP: 1171 (2.5%)
Green: 1669 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.4%)
Others: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6451 (13.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rachael Maskell 20,212 42.4 +2.4
Conservative Robert McIlveen 13,496 28.3 +2.2
UKIP Ken Guest 4,795 10.1 +7.7
Green Jonathan Tyler 4,791 10.0 +6.5
Liberal Democrat Nick Love 3,804 8.0 -17.2
Yorkshire First Chris Whitwood 291 0.6 +0.6
TUSC Megan Ollerhead 288 0.6 +0.6
Majority 6,716 14.1 +0.2
Turnout 47,677 63.3 +1.2

Leave Vote: 38.8%

Sitting MP: Rachael Maskell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. York Outer

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22912 (43%)
Labour: 9108 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 19224 (36.1%)
BNP: 956 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3688 (6.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Sturdy 26,477 49.1 +6.1
Labour Joe Riches 13,348 24.8 +7.7
Liberal Democrat James Blanchard 6,269 11.6 -24.4
UKIP Paul Abbott 5,251 9.7 +7.7
Green Ginnie Shaw 2,558 4.7 +4.7
Majority 13,129 24.4 +17.5
Turnout 53,903 68.6 −2.5

Leave Vote: 44.7%

Sitting MP: Julian Sturdy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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