General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 47. Greater Manchester

1 May 2017 at 20:36

GREATER MANCHESTER

Seats: 27
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 22
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8, Lab 19

1. Altrincham & Sale West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24176 (48.9%)
Labour: 11073 (22.4%)
Lib Dem: 12581 (25.5%)
UKIP: 1563 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 11595 (23.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Graham Brady 26,771 53.0 +4.0
Labour James Wright 13,481 26.7 +4.3
Liberal Democrat Jane Brophy 4,235 8.4 −17.1
UKIP Chris Frost 4,047 8.0 +4.8
Green Nick Robertson-Brown 1,983 3.9 +3.9
Majority 13,290 26.3 +2.8
Turnout 50,517 70.2 +0.9

Leave Vote: 38.6%

Sitting MP: Graham Brady (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Ashton under Lyne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9510 (24.7%)
Labour: 18604 (48.4%)
Lib Dem: 5703 (14.8%)
BNP: 2929 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.4%)
MAJORITY: 9094 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Angela Rayner 19,366 49.8 +1.4
Conservative Tracy Sutton 8,610 22.1 −2.6
UKIP Maurice Jackson 8,468 21.8 +17.4
Green Charlotte Hughes 1,531 3.9 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Carly Hicks 943 2.4 -12.4
Majority 10,756 27.6 +3.9
Turnout 38,918 57.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 63.4%

Sitting MP: Angela Rayner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Blackley & Broughton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6260 (18.3%)
Labour: 18563 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 4861 (14.2%)
BNP: 2469 (7.2%)
UKIP: 894 (2.6%)
Respect: 996 (2.9%)
Christian: 161 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 12303 (36%)

2015 Result:
Labour Graham Stringer 22,982 61.9 +7.7
UKIP Martin Power 6,108 16.5 +13.8
Conservative Michelle Tanfield-Johnson 5,581 15.0 -3.3
Green David Jones 1,567 4.2 +4.2
Liberal Democrat Richard Gadsden 874 2.4 -11.9
Majority 16,874 45.5 +9.5
Turnout 37,112 51.6 +2.9

Leave Vote: 50%

Sitting MP: Graham Stringer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Bolton North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15786 (36.5%)
Labour: 19870 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 5624 (13%)
UKIP: 1815 (4.2%)
Others: 182 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4084 (9.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour David Crausby 18,541 43.0 −3.0
Conservative James Daly 14,164 32.8 −3.7
UKIP Harry Lamb 8,117 18.8 +14.6
Liberal Democrat Stephen Rock 1,236 2.9 −10.1
Green Laura Diggle 1,103 2.6 +2.6
Majority 4,377 10.1 +0.7
Turnout 43,161 63.6 -0.7

Sitting MP: David Crausby (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Leave Vote: 58.1%

This seat used to be known as a weathervane seat. Labour’s majority increased last time but only because the huge increase in the UKIP vote suppressed the Conservative vote. Assuming a lot of the UKIP vote returns to the Tories this seat will fall.

5. Bolton South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10148 (25.6%)
Labour: 18782 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 6289 (15.9%)
BNP: 2012 (5.1%)
Green: 614 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.9%)
Others: 195 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 8634 (21.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Yasmin Qureshi 20,555 50.5 +3.0
UKIP Jeff Armstrong 9,627 23.6 +19.7
Conservative Mudasir Dean 8,289 20.3 −5.3
Green Alan Johnson 1,200 2.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Darren Reynolds 1,072 2.6 −13.2
Majority 10,928 26.8
Turnout 40,743 58.5

Leave Vote: 63%

Sitting MP: Yasmin Qureshi (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Bolton West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18235 (38.3%)
Labour: 18327 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 8177 (17.2%)
Green: 545 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1901 (4%)
Independent: 254 (0.5%)
Others: 137 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 92 (0.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Green 19,744 40.6 +2.3
Labour Julie Hilling 18,943 39.0 +0.5
UKIP Bob Horsefield 7,428 15.3 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Andrew Martin 1,947 4.0 -13.2
Independent Andy Smith 321 0.7 +0.7
TUSC John Vickers 209 0.4 +0.4
Majority 801 1.6
Turnout 48,592 66.8

Leave Vote: 55.6%

Sitting MP: Chris Green (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Bury North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18070 (40.2%)
Labour: 15827 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 7645 (17%)
BNP: 1825 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1282 (2.9%)
Independent: 181 (0.4%)
Others: 131 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2243 (5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Nuttall 18,970 41.9 +1.8
Labour James Frith 18,592 41.1 +5.9
UKIP Ian Henderson 5,595 12.4 +9.5
Green John Southworth 1,141 2.5 +2.5
Liberal Democrat Richard Baum 932 2.1 −14.9
Majority 378 0.8 −4.2
Turnout 45,230 66.9 −0.4

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: David Nuttall (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Bury South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16216 (33.6%)
Labour: 19508 (40.4%)
Lib Dem: 8796 (18.2%)
BNP: 1743 (3.6%)
Green: 493 (1%)
UKIP: 1017 (2.1%)
English Dem: 494 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3292 (6.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ivan Lewis 21,272 45.1 +4.6
Conservative Daniel Critchlow 16,350 34.6 +1.0
UKIP Séamus Martin 6,299 13.3 +11.2
Liberal Democrat Paul Ankers 1,690 3.6 −14.6
Green Glyn Heath 1,434 3.0 +2.0
English Democrat Valerie Morris 170 0.4 −0.7
Majority 4,922 10.4 +3.6
Turnout 47,215 63.9 −1.7

Lave Vote: 54.5%

Sitting MP: Ivan Lewis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ivan Lewis is in danger here but the UKIP vote isn’t that high here so there is more for the Tory candidate to do to win. I suspect Lewis will prevail.

9. Cheadle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21445 (40.8%)
Labour: 4920 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 24717 (47.1%)
UKIP: 1430 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 3272 (6.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mary Robinson 22,889 43.1 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Mark Hunter 16,436 31.0 -16.1
Labour Martin Miller 8,673 16.3 +7.0
UKIP Shaun Hopkins 4,423 8.3 +5.6
Independent Matthew Torbitt 390 0.7 +0.7
Above and Beyond Drew Carswell 208 0.4 +0.4
Independence from Europe Helen Bashford 76 0.1 +0.1
Majority 6,453 12.2
Turnout 53,095 72.5

Sitting MP: Mary Robinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Denton & Reddish

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9360 (24.9%)
Labour: 19191 (51%)
Lib Dem: 6727 (17.9%)
UKIP: 2060 (5.5%)
Independent: 297 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 9831 (26.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andrew Gwynne 19,661 50.8 −0.2
Conservative Lana Hempsall 9,150 23.7 −1.2
UKIP Andrew Fairfoull 7,225 18.7 +13.2
Green Nick Koopman 1,466 3.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Mark Jewell 957 2.5 −15.4
Independent Victoria Lofas 222 0.6 N/A
Majority 10,511 27.2
Turnout 38,681 58.1

Leave Vote: 61.4%

Sitting MP: Andrew Gwynne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Hazel Grove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14114 (33.6%)
Labour: 5234 (12.5%)
Lib Dem: 20485 (48.8%)
UKIP: 2148 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6371 (15.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative William Wragg 17,882 41.8 +7.8
Liberal Democrat Lisa Smart 11,330 26.2 -22.6
Labour Michael Taylor 7,584 17.5 +5.1
UKIP Darran Palmer 5,283 12.2 +7.1
Green Graham Reid 1,140 2.6 +2.6
Majority 6,552 15.2
Turnout 42,759 68.5 +1.9

Leave Vote: 51.7%

Sitting MP: William Wragg (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. Heywood & Middleton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12528 (27.2%)
Labour: 18499 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 10474 (22.7%)
BNP: 3239 (7%)
UKIP: 1215 (2.6%)
Independent: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5971 (12.9%)

BY-ELECTION
Liz McInnes (Labour) 11633 40.9% (0.8%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 11016 38.7% (
36.1%)
Iain Gartside (Conservative) 3496 12.3% (-14.9%)
Anthony Smith (Liberal Democrat) 1457 5.1% (-17.6%)
Abi Jackson (Green) 870 3.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 617 2.2% (-10.7%)
Turnout 36% (-21.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Liz McInnes 20,926 43.1 +3.0
UKIP John Bickley 15,627 32.2 +29.6
Conservative Iain Gartside 9,268 19.1 −8.1
Liberal Democrat Anthony Smith 1,607 3.3 −19.4
Green Abi Jackson 1,110 2.3 +2.3
Majority 5,299 10.9
Turnout 48,538 60.7

Leave Vote: 61.9%

Sitting MP: Liz McInnes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

13. Leigh

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9284 (20.9%)
Labour: 21295 (48%)
Lib Dem: 8049 (18.2%)
BNP: 2724 (6.1%)
UKIP: 1535 (3.5%)
Christian: 137 (0.3%)
Independent: 988 (2.2%)
Others: 320 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12011 (27.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andy Burnham 24,312 53.9 +5.8
Conservative Louisa Townson 10,216 22.6 +1.7
UKIP Les Leggett 8,903 19.7 +16.3
Liberal Democrat Bill Winlow 1,150 2.5 −15.6
TUSC Stephen Hall 542 1.2 N/A
Majority 14,096 31.2 +4.1
Turnout 45,123 59.4 −2.6

Leave Vote: 63.3%

Sitting MP: Andy Burnham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

14. Makerfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8210 (18.8%)
Labour: 20700 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 7082 (16.2%)
BNP: 3229 (7.4%)
Independent: 3424 (7.8%)
Others: 1126 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12490 (28.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Yvonne Fovargue 23,208 51.8 +4.5
UKIP Andrew Collinson 10,053 22.4 +22.4
Conservative Syeda Zaidi 8,752 19.5 +0.8
Liberal Democrat John Skipworth 1,639 3.7 −12.5
Green Philip Mitchell 1,136 2.5 +2.5
Majority 13,155 29.4 +0.9
Turnout 44,788 60.2 +0.8

Leave Vote: 64.9%

Sitting MP: Yvonne Fovargue (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

15. Manchester Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4704 (11.8%)
Labour: 21059 (52.7%)
Lib Dem: 10620 (26.6%)
BNP: 1636 (4.1%)
Green: 915 (2.3%)
UKIP: 607 (1.5%)
Independent: 120 (0.3%)
Others: 266 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10439 (26.1%)

BY ELECTION
Lucy Powell (Labour) 11507 69.1% (16.4%)
Marc Ramsbottom (Liberal Democrat) 1571 9.4% (-17.2%)
Matthew Sephton (Conservative) 754 4.5% (-7.3%)
Chris Cassidy (UKIP) 749 4.5% (
3.0%)
Tom Dylan (Green) 652 3.9% (1.6%)
Eddy O’Sullivan (BNP) 492 3% (-1.1%)
Loz Kaye (Pirate) 308 1.9% (n/a)
Alex Davidson (TUSC) 220 1.3% (n/a)
Catherine Higgins (Respect) 182 1.1% (n/a)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 78 0.5% (n/a)
Lee Holmes (Peoples Democratic) 71 0.4% (n/a)
Peter Clifford (Communist League) 64 0.4% (n/a)
MAJORITY 9936 59.7% (
33.6%)
Turnout 18.2% (-28.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Lucy Powell 27,772 61.3 +8.5
Conservative Xingang Wang 6,133 13.5 +1.7
UKIP Myles Power 5,033 11.1 +9.6
Green Kieran Turner-Dave 3,838 8.5 +6.2
Liberal Democrat John Reid 1,867 4.1 −22.5
Pirate Loz Kaye 346 0.8 N/A
TUSC Alex Davidson 270 0.6 N/A
Communist League John Davies 72 0.2 N/A
Majority 21,639 47.7 +21.6
Turnout 45,331 52.7 +6.0

Leave Vote: 36.4%

Sitting MP: Lucy Powell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

16. Manchester Gorton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4224 (11%)
Labour: 19211 (50.1%)
Lib Dem: 12508 (32.6%)
Green: 1048 (2.7%)
Respect: 507 (1.3%)
Christian: 254 (0.7%)
TUSC: 337 (0.9%)
Others: 236 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 6703 (17.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gerald Kaufman 28,187 67.1 +17.0
Green Laura Bannister 4,108 9.8 +7.0
Conservative Mohammed Afzal 4,063 9.7 -1.4
UKIP Phil Eckersley 3,434 8.2 N/A
Liberal Democrat Dave Page 1,782 4.2 -28.4
TUSC Simon Hickman 264 0.6 -0.3
Pirate Cris Chesha 181 0.4 -0.2
Majority 24,079 57.3 +39.8
Turnout 42,019 57.6 +7.1

Sitting MP: Sir Gerald Kaufman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

17. Manchester Withington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5005 (11.1%)
Labour: 18216 (40.5%)
Lib Dem: 20110 (44.7%)
Green: 798 (1.8%)
UKIP: 698 (1.6%)
Independent: 147 (0.3%)
Others: 57 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1894 (4.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jeff Smith 26,843 53.7 +13.3
Liberal Democrat John Leech 11,970 24.0 −20.7
Conservative Robert Manning 4,872 9.8 −1.4
Green Lucy Bannister 4,048 8.1 +6.3
UKIP Mark Davies 2,172 4.3 +2.8
Independent Marcus Farmer 61 0.1 0.0
Majority 14,873 29.8
Turnout 49,966 67.5 +5.5

Leave Vote: 38.2%

Sitting MP: Jeff Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

18. Oldham East & Saddleworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11773 (26.4%)
Labour: 14186 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 14083 (31.6%)
BNP: 2546 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1720 (3.9%)
Christian: 212 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 103 (0.2%)

BY-ELECTION
Debbie Abrahams (Labour) 14718 42.1% (10.2%)
Elwyn Watkins (Liberal Democrat) 11160 31.9% (
0.3%)
Kashif Ali (Conservative) 4481 12.8% (-13.6%)
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 2029 5.8% (1.9%)
Derek Adams (BNP) 1560 4.5% (-1.2%)
Peter Allen (Green) 530 1.5% (n/a)
Nick the Flying Brick Delves (Loony) 145 0.4% (n/a)
Stephen Morris (English Democrats) 144 0.4% (n/a)
Loz Kaye (Pirate) 96 0.3% (n/a)
David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis) 67 0.2% (n/a)
MAJORITY 3558 10.2% (
10%)

2015 Result:
Labour Debbie Abrahams 17,529 39.4 +7.5
Conservative Sajjad Hussain 11,527 25.9 −0.5
UKIP Peter Klonowski 8,557 19.2 +15.4
Liberal Democrat Richard Marbrow 5,718 12.9 −18.8
Green Miranda Meadowcroft 1,152 2.6 N/A
Majority 6,002 13.5 +13.3
Turnout 44,483 61.8 +0.6

Leave Vote: 57.9%

Sitting MP: Debbie Abrahams (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A possible upset here if the stars align. Not sure they will, though.

19. Oldham West & Royton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10151 (23.7%)
Labour: 19503 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 8193 (19.1%)
BNP: 3049 (7.1%)
UKIP: 1387 (3.2%)
Respect: 627 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 9352 (21.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jim McMahon 17,209 62.1 +7.3
UKIP John Bickley 6,487 23.4 +2.8
Conservative James Daly 2,596 9.4 −9.6
Liberal Democrat Jane Brophy 1,024 3.7 0.0
Green Simeon Hart 249 0.9 −1.0
Monster Raving Loony Sir Oink A-Lot 141 0.5 N/A
Majority 10,722 38.7 +4.5
Turnout 27,706 40.3 −19.3

Leave Vote: 62.3%

Sitting MP: Jim McMahon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

20. Rochdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8305 (18.1%)
Labour: 16699 (36.4%)
Lib Dem: 15810 (34.4%)
UKIP: 1999 (4.4%)
Independent: 313 (0.7%)
Others: 2781 (6.1%)
MAJORITY: 889 (1.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Simon Danczuk 20,961 46.1 +9.8
UKIP Mohammed Masud 8,519 18.8 +14.4
Conservative Azi Ahmed 7,742 17.0 -1.0
Liberal Democrat Andy Kelly 4,667 10.3 -24.2
Rochdale First Farooq Ahmed 1,535 3.4 N/A
Green Mark Hollinrake 1,382 3.0 N/A
National Front Kevin Bryan 433 1.0 -3.9
Islam Zinda Baad Platform Mohammed Salim 191 0.4 -0.8
Majority 12,442 27.4 +25.5
Turnout 45,430 57.4 -0.7

Sitting MP: Simon Danczuk (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

21. Salford & Eccles

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8497 (20.5%)
Labour: 16655 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 10930 (26.3%)
BNP: 2632 (6.3%)
UKIP: 1084 (2.6%)
English Dem: 621 (1.5%)
TUSC: 730 (1.8%)
Independent: 384 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5725 (13.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rebecca Long-Bailey 21,364 49.4 +9.3
Conservative Greg Downes 8,823 20.4 −0.1
UKIP Paul Doyle 7,806 18.0 +15.4
Green Emma Van Dyke 2,251 5.2 +5.2
Liberal Democrat Charlie Briggs 1,614 3.7 −22.6
We are the Reality Party Mark “Bez” Berry 703 1.6 +1.6
TUSC Noreen Bailey 517 1.2 −0.6
Pirate Sam Clark 183 0.4 +0.4
Majority 12,541 29.0 +15.2
Turnout 43,261 58.2 +3.2

Leave Vote: 52.8%

Sitting MP: Rebecca Long-Bailey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

22. Stalybridge & Hyde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13445 (32.9%)
Labour: 16189 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 6965 (17%)
BNP: 2259 (5.5%)
Green: 679 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1342 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 2744 (6.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Jonathan Reynolds 18,447 45.0 +5.4
Conservative Martin Riley 11,761 28.7 -4.2
UKIP Angela McManus 7,720 18.8 +15.5
Green Jenny Ross 1,850 4.5 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Peter Flynn 1,256 3.1 -14.0
Majority 6,686 16.3 +9.6
Turnout 41,034 59.4 +0.2

Leave Vote: 58.5%

Sitting MP: Jonathan Reynolds (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Jonathan Reynolds is one of the nicest politicians you could hope to meet, so I assume he is a very diligent constituency MP. He may need every vote of his personal vote to pull through here. But with UKIP not standing, a Tory gain is very likely.

23. Stockport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9913 (25.3%)
Labour: 16697 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9778 (25%)
BNP: 1201 (3.1%)
Green: 677 (1.7%)
UKIP: 862 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 6784 (17.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ann Coffey 19,771 49.9 +7.2
Conservative Daniel Hamilton 9,710 24.5 -0.8
UKIP Steven Woolfe 5,206 13.1 +10.9
Liberal Democrat Daniel Hawthorne 3,034 7.7 -17.3
Green Gary Lawson 1,753 4.4 +2.7
Left Unity John Pearson 175 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,061 25.4
Turnout 39,649 62.0

Leave Vote: 47.9%

Sitting MP: Ann Coffey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

24. Stretford & Urmston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12886 (28.7%)
Labour: 21821 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 7601 (16.9%)
Green: 916 (2%)
UKIP: 1508 (3.4%)
Christian: 178 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 8935 (19.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kate Green 24,601 53.0 +4.4
Conservative Lisa Cooke 12,916 27.8 -0.8
UKIP Kalvin Chapman 5,068 10.9 +7.6
Green Geraldine Coggins 2,187 4.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Louise Ankers 1,362 2.9 -14.0
Whig Paul Bradley-Law 169 0.4 +0.4
Population Party UK Paul Carson 83 0.2 +0.2
Majority 11,685 25.2 +5.3
Turnout 46,386 66.8 +2.7

Leave Vote: 48.9%

Sitting MP: Kate Green (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

25. Wigan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10917 (24.7%)
Labour: 21404 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (15.4%)
BNP: 2506 (5.7%)
UKIP: 2516 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 10487 (23.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lisa Nandy 23,625 52.2 +3.7
Conservative Caroline Kerswell 9,389 20.7 −4.0
UKIP Mark Bradley 8,818 19.5 +13.8
Green Will Patterson 1,273 2.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Mark Clayton 1,255 2.8 -12.6
Wigan Independents Gareth Fairhurst 768 1.7 N/A
Independent Brian Parr 165 0.4 N/A
Majority 14,236 31.4 +7.6
Turnout 45,293 59.5 +1.1

Leave Vote: 63%

Sitting MP: Lisa Nandy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

26. Worsley & Eccles South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13555 (32.5%)
Labour: 17892 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 6883 (16.5%)
UKIP: 2037 (4.9%)
English Dem: 1334 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 4337 (10.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Barbara Keeley 18,600 44.2 +1.3
Conservative Iain Lindley 12,654 30.1 -2.4
UKIP Owen Hammond 7,688 18.3 +13.4
Green Chris Bertenshaw 1,242 3.0 +3.0
Liberal Democrat Kate Clarkson 1,100 2.6 -13.9
TUSC Steve North 380 0.9 +0.9
Reality Mags McNally 200 0.5 +0.5
Independent Geoffrey Berg 184 0.4 +0.4
Majority 5,946 14.1

Leave Vote: 62.2%

Sitting MP: Barbara Keeley (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Could be a tight one. It would need to be a huge landslide for this one to fall.

27. Wythenshawe & Sale East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10412 (25.6%)
Labour: 17987 (44.1%)
Lib Dem: 9107 (22.3%)
BNP: 1572 (3.9%)
UKIP: 1405 (3.4%)
TUSC: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 7575 (18.6%)

BY ELECTION
Mike Kane (Labour): 13,261
John Bickley (UKIP): 4,301
Reverend Daniel Critchlow (Conservatives): 3,479
Mary Di Mauro (Lib Dem): 1,176
Nigel Woodcock (Green Party): 748
Eddy O’Sullivan (BNP): 708
Captain Chaplington-Smythe (Monster Raving Loony): 288
Turnout: 28%

2015 Result:
Mike Kane Labour 21,693 50.1 +6.0
Fiona Green Conservative 11,124 25.7 +0.2
Lee Clayton UKIP 6,354 14.7 +11.2
Victor Chamberlain Liberal Democrat 1,927 4.5 -17.9
Jess Mayo Green 1,658 3.8 N/A
Johnny Disco Monster Raving Loony 292 0.7 N/A
Lynn Worthington TUSC 215 0.5 -0.2
ajority: 10,569 (24.4%)
Swing: 3.0% from Con to Lab

Sitting MP: Michael Kane (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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