General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 48: East Yorkshire & Humberside

1 May 2017 at 22:24

EAST YORKSHIRE & HUMBERSIDE

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Labour 3

1. Beverley & Holderness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25063 (47.1%)
Labour: 11224 (21.1%)
Lib Dem: 12076 (22.7%)
BNP: 2080 (3.9%)
Green: 686 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1845 (3.5%)
Independent: 225 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12987 (24.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Graham Stuart 25,363 48.1 +1.0
Labour Margaret Pinder 13,160 25.0 +3.9
UKIP Gary Shores 8,794 16.7 +13.2
Liberal Democrat Denis Healy 2,900 5.5 -17.2
Green Richard Howarth 1,802 3.4 +2.1
Yorkshire First Lee Walton 658 1.2 +1.2
Majority 12,203 23.2
Turnout 52,677 65.2

Leave Vote: 58.7%

Sitting MP: Graham Stuart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Brigg & Goole

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19680 (44.9%)
Labour: 14533 (33.1%)
Lib Dem: 6414 (14.6%)
BNP: 1498 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1749 (4%)
MAJORITY: 5147 (11.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Percy 22,946 53.0 +8.2
Labour Jacky Crawford 11,770 27.2 -5.9
UKIP David Jeffreys 6,694 15.5 +11.5
Green Natalie Hurst 915 2.1 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Liz Leffman 764 1.8 -12.9
Independent Trevor Dixon 153 0.4 +0.4
An Independence from Europe Ray Spalding 28 0.1 +0.1
Majority 11,176 25.8
Turnout 43,270 63.2

Leave Vote: 66.2%

Sitting MP: Andrew Percy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Cleethorpes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18939 (42.1%)
Labour: 14641 (32.6%)
Lib Dem: 8192 (18.2%)
UKIP: 3194 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 4298 (9.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Martin Vickers 21,026 46.6 +4.5
Labour Peter Keith 13,133 29.1 -3.4
UKIP Stephen Harness 8,356 18.5 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Roy Horobin 1,346 3.0 -15.2
Green Carol Thornton 1,013 2.2 +2.2
TUSC Malcolm Morland 215 0.5 +0.5
Majority 7,893 17.5
Turnout 45,089 63.9

Leave Vote: 69.5%

Sitting MP: Martin Vickers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. East Yorkshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24328 (47.5%)
Labour: 10401 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 10842 (21.2%)
BNP: 1865 (3.6%)
Green: 762 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.2%)
Others: 914 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 13486 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Greg Knight 25,276 50.6 +3.1
Labour Kevin Hickson 10,343 20.7 +0.4
UKIP Steph Todd 8,955 17.9 +13.7
Liberal Democrat Robert Adamson 2,966 5.9 -15.2
Green Mark Maloney 1,731 3.5 +2.0
Yorkshire First Stewart Arnold 720 1.4 +1.4
Majority 14,933 29.9 +3.6
Turnout 49,991 61.7 -2.1

Leave Vote: 63.7%

Sitting MP: Greg Knight (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Great Grimsby

Conservative: 10063 (30.5%)
Labour: 10777 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 7388 (22.4%)
BNP: 1517 (4.6%)
UKIP: 2043 (6.2%)
Independent: 835 (2.5%)
Others: 331 (1%)
MAJORITY: 714 (2.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Melanie Onn 13,414 39.8 +7.1
Conservative Marc Jones 8,874 26.3 −4.2
UKIP Victoria Ayling 8,417 25.0 +18.8
Liberal Democrat Steve Beasant 1,680 5.0 −17.4
Green Vicky Dunn 783 2.3 +2.3
Independent Gary Calder 390 1.2 +1.2
TUSC Val O’Flynn 173 0.5 +0.5
Majority 4,540 13.5 +11.3
Turnout 33,731 57.7 +3.9

Leave Vote: 69.2%

Sitting MP: Melanie Onn (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

In 2010 the Conservatives came very close to taking this seat. The Tory candidate then switched to UKIP and stood in 2015. She’s been replaced this time by one of their MEPs, Mike Hookem. If the Conservatives don’t win this seat this time they never will. I suspect it’ll happen.

6. Haltemprice & Howden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24486 (50.2%)
Labour: 7630 (15.7%)
Lib Dem: 12884 (26.4%)
BNP: 1583 (3.2%)
Green: 669 (1.4%)
English Dem: 1485 (3%)
MAJORITY: 11602 (23.8%)

2015 Result
Conservative David Davis 26,414 54.2 +3.9
Labour Edward Hart 10,219 21.0 +5.3
UKIP John Kitchener 6,781 13.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Carl Minns 3,055 6.3 -20.2
Green Tim Greene 1,809 3.7 +2.3
Yorkshire First Diana Wallis 479 1.0 N/A
Majority 16,195 33.2
Turnout 48,757 68.5

Leave Vote: 55.2%

Sitting MP: David Davis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Hull East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5667 (16.6%)
Labour: 16387 (47.9%)
Lib Dem: 7790 (22.8%)
UKIP: 2745 (8%)
English Dem: 715 (2.1%)
Others: 880 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8597 (25.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Karl Turner 18,180 51.7 +3.8
UKIP Richard Barrett 7,861 22.4 +14.3
Conservative Christine Mackay 5,593 15.9 -0.7
Liberal Democrat David Nolan 2,294 6.5 -16.3
Green Sarah Walpole 806 2.3 +2.3
Yorkshire First Martin Clayton 270 0.8 +0.8
National Front Mike Cooper 86 0.2 -2.3
Social Democratic Val Hoodless 54 0.2 +0.2
Majority 10,319 29.4
Turnout 35,144 53.6

Leave Vote: 72.8%

Sitting MP: Karl Turner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Hull North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4365 (13.1%)
Labour: 13044 (39.2%)
Lib Dem: 12403 (37.3%)
BNP: 1443 (4.3%)
Green: 478 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1358 (4.1%)
English Dem: 200 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 641 (1.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Diana Johnson 18,661 52.8 +13.6
UKIP Sergi Singh 5,762 16.3 +12.2
Conservative Dehenna Davison 5,306 15.0 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Mike Ross 3,175 9.0 -28.3
Green Martin Deane 2,066 5.8 +4.4
Yorkshire First Vicky Butler 366 1.0 +1.0
Majority 12,899 36.5
Turnout 35,336 55.5

Leave Vote: 59.8%

Sitting MP: Diana Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Hull West & Hessle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6361 (20.2%)
Labour: 13378 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 7636 (24.2%)
BNP: 1416 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1688 (5.4%)
English Dem: 876 (2.8%)
TUSC: 150 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 5742 (18.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alan Johnson 15,646 49.2 +6.7
UKIP Paul Salvidge 6,313 19.9 +14.5
Conservative Jo Barker 5,561 17.5 −2.7
Liberal Democrat Claire Thomas 3,169 10.0 −14.3
Green Angela Needham 943 3.0 +3.0
TUSC Paul Spooner 171 0.5 +0.1
Majority 9,333 29.3
Turnout 31,803 53.9

Leave Vote: 68%

Sitting MP: Alan Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Scunthorpe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12091 (32.6%)
Labour: 14640 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 6774 (18.3%)
BNP: 1447 (3.9%)
Green: 396 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.6%)
MAJORITY: 2549 (6.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nic Dakin 15,393 41.7 +2.1
Conservative Jo Gideon 12,259 33.2 +0.5
UKIP Stephen Howd 6,329 17.1 +12.6
Independent Des Comerford 1,097 3.0 N/A
Green Martin Dwyer 887 2.4 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Simon Dodd 770 2.1 -16.2
Independent Paul Elsom 206 0.6 N/A
Majority 3,134 8.5
Turnout 36,941 57.7

Leave Vote: 68.7%

Sitting MP: Nicholas Dakin (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

If Theresa May manages to frame this as a ‘who would be better at negotiating with the EU – me or Corbyn?’ expect this seat to go Tory. Had UKIP not done so well in 2015 they would have won it last time.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share: