General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 51. South Yorkshire

2 May 2017 at 22:27

SOUTH YORKSHIRE

Seats: 14
Current Political Makeup: Lab 13, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 1, Lab 12, LibDem 1

1. Barnsley Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6388 (17.3%)
Labour: 17487 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6394 (17.3%)
BNP: 3307 (8.9%)
UKIP: 1727 (4.7%)
Independent: 732 (2%)
Others: 966 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 11093 (30%)

2015 Result:
Labour Dan Jarvis 20,376 55.7 +8.5
UKIP Lee Hunter 7,941 21.7 +17.1
Conservative Kay Carter 5,485 15.0 -2.3
Green Michael Short 938 2.6 N/A
Liberal Democrat John Ridgway 770 2.1 -15.2
TUSC Dave Gibson 573 1.6 N/A
English Democrat Ian Sutton 477 1.3 N/A
Majority 12,435 34.0 +4.0
Turnout 36,560 56.7 +0.2

Leave Vote: 61.2%

Sitting MP: Dan Jarvis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Barnsley East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6329 (16.5%)
Labour: 18059 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6969 (18.2%)
BNP: 3301 (8.6%)
UKIP: 1731 (4.5%)
Independent: 712 (1.9%)
Others: 1285 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 11090 (28.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Michael Dugher 21,079 54.7 +7.7
UKIP Robert Swiffen 9,045 23.5 +19.0
Conservative Katharine Harborne 5,622 14.6 -1.9
Liberal Democrat Ruth Coleman-Taylor 1,217 3.2 -15.0
Yorkshire First Tony Devoy 647 1.7 N/A
English Democrat Kevin Riddiough 440 1.1 N/A
TUSC Ralph Dyson 364 0.9 N/A
Vapers in Power Billy Marsden 103 0.3 N/A
Majority 12,034 31.2 +2.3
Turnout 38,517 55.7 -0.4

Leave Vote: 71%

Sitting MP: Michael Dugher (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Don Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12877 (29.7%)
Labour: 16472 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 7422 (17.1%)
BNP: 2112 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1904 (4.4%)
English Dem: 1756 (4%)
Independent: 877 (2%)
MAJORITY: 3595 (8.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Caroline Flint 19,621 46.2 +8.2
Conservative Carl Jackson 10,736 25.3 -4.4
UKIP Guy Aston 9,963 23.5 +19.1
Liberal Democrat Rene Paterson 1,487 3.5 -13.6
TUSC Steve Williams 437 1.0 +1.0
English Democrat Louise Dutton 242 0.6 -3.5
Majority 8,885 20.9 +12.6
Turnout 42,486 59.6 +0.3

Leave Vote: 68.5%

Sitting MP: Caroline Flint (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

On a massive landslide for the Tories this seat could be in contention for them. But only then.

4. Doncaster Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10340 (24.8%)
Labour: 16569 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 8795 (21.1%)
BNP: 1762 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1421 (3.4%)
English Dem: 1816 (4.4%)
Independent: 970 (2.3%)
Others: 72 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6229 (14.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rosie Winterton 19,840 49.1 +9.4
UKIP Chris Hodgson 9,747 24.1 +20.7
Conservative Zoe Metcalfe 8,386 20.7 −4.0
Liberal Democrat John Brown 1,717 4.2 −16.8
TUSC Mev Akram 421 1.0 +1.0
English Democrat David Burnett 309 0.8 −3.6
Majority 10,093 25.0 +10.1
Turnout 40,420 56.8 +1.3

Leave Vote: 66.7%

Sitting MP: Rosie Winterton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Doncaster North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8728 (21%)
Labour: 19637 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6174 (14.9%)
BNP: 2818 (6.8%)
UKIP: 1797 (4.3%)
English Dem: 2148 (5.2%)
TUSC: 181 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10909 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ed Miliband 20,708 52.4 +5.1
UKIP Kim Parkinson 8,928 22.6 +18.3
Conservative Mark Fletcher 7,235 18.3 −2.7
Liberal Democrat Penny Baker 1,005 2.5 −12.3
Green Pete Kennedy 757 1.9 +1.9
English Democrat David Allen 448 1.1 −4.0
TUSC Mary Jackson 258 0.7 +0.2
Monster Raving Loony Nick the Flying Brick 162 0.4 +0.4
Majority 11,780 29.8 +3.5
Turnout 39,501 55.7 −1.6

Leave Vote: 71.7%

Sitting MP: Ed Miliband (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Penistone & Stocksbridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14516 (31.2%)
Labour: 17565 (37.8%)
Lib Dem: 9800 (21.1%)
BNP: 2207 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1936 (4.2%)
English Dem: 492 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 3049 (6.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Angela Smith 19,691 42.0 +4.3
Conservative Steven Jackson 12,968 27.7 -3.5
UKIP Graeme Waddicar 10,738 22.9 +18.8
Liberal Democrat Rosalyn Gordon 2,957 6.3 -14.8
English Democrat Colin Porter 500 1.1 0.0
Majority 6,723 14.3
Turnout 46,854 65.9

Sitting MP: Angela Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The majority here doubled last time but that is a false figure given the quintupling of the UKIP vote. I think Ms Smith is in deep trouble and this seat will be gained by the Tories.,

7. Rother Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13281 (28.4%)
Labour: 19147 (40.9%)
Lib Dem: 8111 (17.3%)
BNP: 3606 (7.7%)
UKIP: 2613 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 5866 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kevin Barron 20,501 43.6 +2.7
UKIP Allen Cowles 13,204 28.1 +22.5
Conservative Gareth Streeter 10,945 23.3 -5.1
Liberal Democrat Robert Teal 1,992 4.2 -13.1
English Democrat Sharon Pilling 377 0.8 N/A
Majority 7,297 15.5 +3.0
Turnout 47,019 63.3

Leave Vote: 66.5%

Sitting MP: Kevin Barron (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A big UKIP vote here. Could become a marginal and if the Tories get a landslide of 130 seats or over, this could fall.

8. Rotherham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6279 (16.7%)
Labour: 16741 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 5994 (16%)
BNP: 3906 (10.4%)
UKIP: 2220 (5.9%)
Independent: 2366 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 10462 (27.9%)

BY ELECTION
Sarah Champion (Labour) 9866 46.3% (1.7%)
Jane Collins (UKIP) 4648 21.8% (
15.9%)
Marlene Guest (BNP) 1804 8.5% (-1.9%)
Yvonne Ridley (Respect) 1778 8.3% (n/a)
Simon Wilson (Conservative) 1157 5.4% (-11.3%)
David Wildgoose (English Democrats) 703 3.3% (n/a)
Simon Copley (Independent) 582 2.7% (n/a)
Michael Beckett (Liberal Democrat) 451 2.1% (-13.9%)
Ralph Dyson (TUSC) 261 1.2% (n/a)
Paul Dickson (Independent) 51 0.2% (n/a)
Clint Bristow (no description) 29 0.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 5218 24.5%
Turnout 33.9% (-25.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Sarah Champion 19,860 52.5 +7.9
UKIP Jane Collins 11,414 30.2 +24.3
Conservative Sebastian Lowe 4,656 12.3 −4.4
Liberal Democrat Janice Middleton 1,093 2.9 −13.1
TUSC Pat McLaughlin 409 1.1 N/A
BNP Adam Walker 225 0.6 −9.8
English Democrat Dean Walker 166 0.4 N/A
Majority 8,446 22.3 −5.6
Turnout 37,823 59.4 +0.4

Leave Vote: 68.8%

Sitting MP: Sarah Champion (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4468 (11.5%)
Labour: 21400 (55%)
Lib Dem: 7768 (20%)
BNP: 3026 (7.8%)
UKIP: 1596 (4.1%)
TUSC: 656 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 13632 (35%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gill Furniss 14,087 62.5 +5.9
UKIP Steven Winstone 4,497 20.0 -2.1
Liberal Democrat Shaffaq Mohammed 1,385 6.1 +1.6
Conservative Spencer Pitfield 1,267 5.6 -5.4
Green Christine Gilligan Kubo 938 4.2 -0.1
Yorkshire First Stevie Manion 349 1.5 1.5
Give Me Back Elmo Bobby Smith 58 0.2 0.2
Majority 9,590 42.5 +8.8
Turnout 22,581 33.2

Leave Vote: 60%

Sitting MP: Gill Furniss (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Sheffield Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4206 (10.1%)
Labour: 17138 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 16973 (40.9%)
BNP: 903 (2.2%)
Green: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
Independent: 40 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 165 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Paul Blomfield 24,308 55.0 +13.7
Green Jillian Creasy 6,999 15.8 +12.1
Conservative Stephanie Roe 4,917 11.1 +1.0
Liberal Democrat Joe Otten 4,278 9.7 -31.2
UKIP Dominic Cook 3,296 7.5 +5.9
Communist Steve Andrew 119 0.3 +0.3
Pirate Andy Halsall 113 0.3 N/A
English Democrat Elizabeth Breed 68 0.2 +0.2
Above and Beyond Party Thom Brown 42 0.1 +0.1
Workers Revolutionary Michael Driver 33 0.1 +0.1
Majority 17,309 39.2 +38.8
Turnout 44,173 57.4 -2.2

Leave Vote: 32%

Sitting MP: Paul Blomfield (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Sheffield Hallam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12040 (23.5%)
Labour: 8228 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 27324 (53.4%)
Green: 919 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.3%)
English Dem: 586 (1.1%)
Christian: 250 (0.5%)
Independent: 429 (0.8%)
Others: 164 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 15284 (29.9%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg 22,215 40.0 −13.4
Labour Oliver Coppard 19,862 35.8 +19.7
Conservative Ian Walker 7,544 13.6 −9.9
UKIP Joe Jenkins 3,575 6.4 +4.1
Green Peter Garbutt 1,772 3.2 +1.4
Independent Carlton Reeve 249 0.4 N/A
English Democrat Steve Clegg 167 0.3 −0.8
Independent Jim Stop the Fiasco Wild 97 0.2 N/A
Majority 2,353 4.2 -25.7
Turnout 55,481 75.3 +1.6

Leave Vote: 34%

Sitting MP: Nick Clegg (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

12. Sheffield Heeley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7081 (17.3%)
Labour: 17409 (42.6%)
Lib Dem: 11602 (28.4%)
BNP: 2260 (5.5%)
Green: 989 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1530 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5807 (14.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Louise Haigh 20,269 48.2 +5.6
UKIP Howard Denby 7,315 17.4 +13.7
Conservative Stephen Castens 6,792 16.2 -1.2
Liberal Democrat Simon Clement-Jones 4,746 11.3 -17.1
Green Rita Wilcock 2,566 6.1 +3.7
TUSC Alan Munro 238 0.6 +0.6
English Democrat David Haslett 122 0.3 +0.3
Majority 12,954 30.8
Turnout 42,048 60.7

Leave Vote: 57.1%

Sitting MP: Louise Haigh (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

13. Sheffield South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7202 (17.4%)
Labour: 20169 (48.7%)
Lib Dem: 9664 (23.3%)
BNP: 2345 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1889 (4.6%)
Others: 139 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10505 (25.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Clive Betts 21,439 51.4 +2.7
UKIP Steven Winstone 9,128 21.9 +17.3
Conservative Matt Sleat 7,242 17.4 0.0
Liberal Democrat Gail Smith 2,226 5.3 -18.0
Green Linda Duckenfield 1,117 2.7 +2.7
CISTA Jen Battersby 207 0.5 +0.5
TUSC Ian Whitehouse 185 0.4 +0.4
English Democrat Matthew Roberts 141 0.3 +0.3
Majority 12,311 29.5 +4.1
Turnout 41,685 59.2 -2.3

Leave Vote: 66.3%

Sitting MP: Clive Betts (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

14. Wentworth & Dearne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7396 (17.6%)
Labour: 21316 (50.6%)
Lib Dem: 6787 (16.1%)
BNP: 3189 (7.6%)
UKIP: 3418 (8.1%)
MAJORITY: 13920 (33.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour John Healey 24,571 56.9 +6.3
UKIP Mike Hookem 10,733 24.9 +16.7
Conservative Michael Naughton 6,441 14.9 -2.7
Liberal Democrat Edwin Simpson 1,135 2.6 -13.5
English Democrat Alan England 309 0.7 N/A
Majority 13,838 32.0
Turnout 43,189 58.1

Leave Vote: 70.3%

Sitting MP: John Healey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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