General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 52. Nottinghamshire

NOTTINGHAMSHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 6, Lab 5

1. Ashfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10698 (22.2%)
Labour: 16239 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 16047 (33.3%)
BNP: 2781 (5.8%)
UKIP: 933 (1.9%)
English Dem: 1102 (2.3%)
Independent: 396 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gloria De Piero 19,448 41.0 +7.3
Conservative Helen Harrison⁶ 10,628 22.4 +0.2
UKIP Simon Ashcroft 10,150 21.4 +19.5
Liberal Democrat Philip Smith⁷ 7,030 14.8 −18.5
Justice for Men and Boys Mike Buchanan 153 0.3 +0.3
Majority 8,820 18.6 +18.2
Turnout 47,409 61.5 −0.8

Leave Vote: 70.5%

Sitting MP: Gloria de Piero (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

With a majority of 8,800 you’d think Gloria de Piero would think of this as a safe seat, but it is nothing of the sort. It only has that level of majority because the opposition vote is split equally between UKIP and the Conservatives. If the UKIP vote collapses to its 2010 levels this could be one of the more surprising results of the night. For now, I reckon de Piero’s high profile and apparent local popularity will see her through.

2. Bassetlaw

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16803 (33.9%)
Labour: 25018 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 5570 (11.2%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.6%)
Independent: 407 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8215 (16.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour John Mann 23,965 48.6 -1.8
Conservative Sarah Downes 15,122 30.7 -3.2
UKIP Dave Scott 7,865 16.0 +12.4
Liberal Democrat Leon Duveen 1,331 2.7 -8.5
Green Kristopher Wragg 1,006 2.0 N/A
Majority 8,843 17.9 +1.3
Turnout 49,289 63.6 -1.2

Leave Vote: 68.3%

Sitting MP: John Mann (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Broxtowe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20585 (39%)
Labour: 20196 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 8907 (16.9%)
BNP: 1422 (2.7%)
Green: 423 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 389 (0.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anna Soubry 24,163 45.2 +6.2
Labour Nick Palmer 19,876 37.2 -1.1
UKIP Frank Dunne 5,674 10.6 +8.4
Liberal Democrat Stan Heptinstall 2,120 4.0 -12.9
Green David Kirwan 1,544 2.9 +2.1
Justice for Men and Boys Ray Barry 63 0.1 N/A
Majority 4,287 8.0 +7.3
Turnout 53,440 74.4 +1.2

Leave Vote: 52.5%

Sitting MP: Anna Soubry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This is a seat Labour will have its eye on, on the assumption that UKIP could suck away a lot of Conservative votes from the vocal Remain supporter Anna Soubry. However, I think she has enough of a buffer to fight them off.

4. Gedling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17962 (37.3%)
Labour: 19821 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 7350 (15.3%)
BNP: 1598 (3.3%)
UKIP: 1459 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1859 (3.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Vernon Coaker 20,307 42.3 +1.2
Conservative Carolyn Abbott 17,321 36.1 −1.2
UKIP Lee Waters 6,930 14.4 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Robert Swift 1,906 4.0 −11.3
Green Jim Norris 1,534 3.2 +3.2
Majority 2,986 6.2 +2.3
Turnout 47,998 68.5 +0.6

Sitting MP: Vernon Coaker (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Ever since Labour won the seat from Andrew Mitchell in 1997 their hold on it has been somewhat precarious. Coaker will be a casualty of the May surge here.

5. Mansfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12741 (26.3%)
Labour: 18753 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 7469 (15.4%)
BNP: 2108 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2985 (6.2%)
Others: 4339 (9%)
MAJORITY: 6012 (12.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alan Meale⁸ 18,603 39.4 +0.7
Conservative Andrea Clarke⁹ 13,288 28.2 +1.8
UKIP Sid Pepper¹⁰ 11,850 25.1 +18.9
Liberal Democrat Tony Rogers¹¹ 1,642 3.5 -12.0
Green Paul Frost¹² 1,486 3.1 +3.1
TUSC Karen Seymour¹¹ 324 0.7 +0.7
Majority 5,315 11.3 -1.1
Turnout 47,193 60.9 +0.5

Leave Vote: 70.1%

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Meale (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat hasn’t returned a Tory MP in living memory. I expect that to change on June 9th. The UKIP vote here is huge and if only a quarter of it went to the Tories it could e enough to see them take the seat.

6. Newark

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27590 (53.9%)
Labour: 11438 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 10246 (20%)
UKIP: 1954 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 16152 (31.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robert Jenrick 29,834 57.0 +3.2
Labour Michael Payne 11,360 21.7 -0.6
UKIP Brian Mapletoft 6,294 12.0 +8.2
Liberal Democrat David Dobbie 2,385 4.6 -15.4
Green Elayne Forster 1,792 3.4 N/A
Consensus – The Community Party Helen Tyrer 637 1.2 N/A
Majority 18,474 35.3 +3.8
Turnout 52,302 70.9 -0.5

Leave Vote: 55.7%

Sitting MP: Robert Jenrick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Nottingham East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7846 (23.7%)
Labour: 15022 (45.4%)
Lib Dem: 8053 (24.3%)
Green: 928 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.4%)
Christian: 125 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6969 (21%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Chris Leslie 19,208 54.6 +9.2
Conservative Garry Hickton 7,314 20.8 -2.9
UKIP Fran Loi⁸ 3,501 9.9 +6.5
Green Antonia Zenkevitch ⁹ 3,473 9.9 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Tad Jones 1,475 4.2 -20.1
Independent Seb Soar ¹⁰ 141 0.4 +0.4
Independent James Stephenson 97 0.3 +0.3
Majority 11,894 33.8 +12.8
Turnout 58.2 +1.8

Leave Vote: 42.6%

Sitting MP: Chris Leslie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Nottingham North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8508 (24.8%)
Labour: 16646 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (17.1%)
BNP: 1944 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1338 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 8138 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Graham Allen 19,283 54.6 +6.0
Conservative Louise Burfitt-Dons 7,423 21.0 −3.8
UKIP Stephen Crosby⁷ 6,542 18.5 +14.6
Green Katharina Boettge⁸ 1,088 3.1 +3.1
Liberal Democrat Tony Sutton 847 2.4 −14.7
TUSC Cathy Meadows 160 0.5 +0.5
Majority 11,860 33.6
Turnout 34,285 53.6 −0.6

Leave Vote: 63.3%

Sitting MP: Graham Allen (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Nottingham South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13437 (32.9%)
Labour: 15209 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 9406 (23.1%)
BNP: 1140 (2.8%)
Green: 630 (1.5%)
UKIP: 967 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 1772 (4.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lilian Greenwood⁸ 20,697 47.6 +10.3
Conservative Jane Hunt⁹ 13,761 31.7 −1.3
UKIP David Hollas¹⁰ 4,900 11.3 +8.9
Green Adam McGregor¹¹ 2,345 5.4 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Deborah Newton-Cook¹² 1,532 3.5 -19.5
TUSC Andrew Clayworth 230 0.5 +0.5
Majority 6,936 16.0
Turnout 43,465 63.0 +2.5

Leave Vote: 45.6%

Sitting MP: Lilian Greenwood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not the biggest Labour majority, but I reckon this is safe for Lilian Greenwood due to the comparatively small UKIP vote.

10. Rushcliffe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27470 (51.2%)
Labour: 11128 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 11659 (21.7%)
Green: 1251 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2179 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 15811 (29.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kenneth Clarke 28,354 51.4 +0.2
Labour David Mellen 14,525 26.3 +5.6
UKIP Matthew Faithfull⁹ 5,943 10.8 +6.7
Green Richard Mallender 3,559 6.5 +4.2
Liberal Democrat Robert Johnston 2,783 5.0 −16.7
Majority 13,829 25.1 −4.4
Turnout 55,164 75.3 +1.7

Leave Vote: 41.5%

Sitting MP: Kenneth Clarke (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Sherwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19211 (39.2%)
Labour: 18997 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7283 (14.9%)
BNP: 1754 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (3%)
Independent: 219 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 214 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Spencer 22,833 45.0 +5.8
Labour Léonie Mathers 18,186 35.9 −2.9
UKIP Sally Chadd⁹ 7,399 14.6 +11.6
Green Lydia Davies-Bright¹⁰ 1,108 2.2 +2.2
Liberal Democrat Dan Mosley¹¹ 1,094 2.2 −12.7
Class War Dave Perkins 78 0.2 0.2
Majority 4,647 9.2
Turnout 50,698 69.1

Leave Vote: 63.7%

Sitting MP: Mark Spencer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE