General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 53. Wales - Gwent

3 May 2017 at 11:31

GWENT

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 6

1. Blaenau Gwent

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2265 (7%)
Labour: 16974 (52.4%)
Lib Dem: 3285 (10.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 1333 (4.1%)
BNP: 1211 (3.7%)
UKIP: 488 (1.5%)
Peoples Voice: 6458 (19.9%)
Others: 381 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 10516 (32.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nick Smith 18,380 58.0 +5.6
UKIP Susan Boucher 5,677 17.9 +16.4
Conservative Tracey Michelle West 8 3,419 10.8 +3.8
Plaid Cymru Steffan Lewis 2,849 9.0 +4.9
Green Mark Pond 738 2.3 New
Liberal Democrat Samuel Rees 620 2.0 −8.2
Majority 12,703 40.1 +5.3
Turnout 31,683 61.7 −0.1

Leave Vote: 62%

Sitting MP: Nick Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Caerphilly

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6622 (17.1%)
Labour: 17377 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 5688 (14.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 6460 (16.7%)
BNP: 1635 (4.2%)
UKIP: 910 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10755 (27.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Wayne David 5 17,864 44.3 −0.6
UKIP Sam Gould 6 7,791 19.3 +16.9
Conservative Leo Docherty 7 6,683 16.6 -0.5
Plaid Cymru Beci Newton 8 5,895 14.6 -2.1
Green Katy Beddoe9 937 2.3 N/A
Liberal Democrat Aladdin Ayesh10 935 2.3 -12.4
TUSC Jaime Davies 178 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,073 25.0 -2.8
Turnout 40,283 63.3 +1.0

Leave Vote: 55.1%

Sitting MP: Wayne David (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Islwyn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4854 (14%)
Labour: 17069 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 3597 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 4518 (13%)
BNP: 1320 (3.8%)
UKIP: 930 (2.7%)
Independent: 1495 (4.3%)
Others: 901 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12215 (35.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Christopher James Evans 17,336 49.0 −0.2
UKIP Joe Smyth 6,932 19.6 +16.9
Conservative Laura Anne Jones 5,366 15.2 +1.2
Plaid Cymru Lyn Ackerman 3,794 10.7 −2.3
Liberal Democrat Brendan D’Cruz6 950 2.7 −7.7
Green Peter Varley7 659 1.9 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Baron von Magpie 213 0.6 N/A
TUSC Joshua Rawcliffe 151 0.4 N/A
Majority 10,404 29.4 −5.8
Turnout 35,401 63.6 +0.3

Leave Vote: 58.9%

Sitting MP: Chris Evans (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2412 (7.5%)
Labour: 14007 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 9951 (31%)
Plaid Cymru: 1621 (5.1%)
BNP: 1173 (3.7%)
UKIP: 872 (2.7%)
Independent: 1845 (5.8%)
Others: 195 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4056 (12.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gerald Jones7 17,619 53.9 +10.2
UKIP David Rowlands8 6,106 18.7 +15.9
Conservative Bill Rees 3,292 10.1 +2.5
Plaid Cymru Rhayna Pritchard 3,099 9.5 +4.4
Liberal Democrat Bob Griffin9 1,351 4.1 −26.9
Green Elspeth Parris10 603 1.8 n/a
Independent Eddy Blanche 459 1.4 n/a
Communist Robert Griffiths 186 0.6 n/a
Majority 11,513 35.2 +22.6
Turnout 32,715 53.0 −5.6

Leave Vote: 58.4%

Sitting MP: Dai Havard (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Monmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22466 (48.3%)
Labour: 12041 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 9026 (19.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1273 (2.7%)
Green: 587 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1126 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10425 (22.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Davies 23,701 49.9 +1.6
Labour Ruth Jones 12,719 26.8 +0.9
UKIP Gareth Dunn 4,942 10.4 +8.0
Liberal Democrat Veronica German 2,496 5.3 −14.1
Plaid Cymru Jonathan Clark 1,875 3.9 +1.2
Green Christopher Were 1,629 3.4 +2.2
English Democrat Stephen Morris 100 0.2 n/a
Majority 10,982 23.1 +0.7
Turnout 47,462 76.2 +4.0

Leave Vote: 48.1%

Sitting MP: David T C Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Newport East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7918 (23%)
Labour: 12744 (37%)
Lib Dem: 11094 (32.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 724 (2.1%)
BNP: 1168 (3.4%)
UKIP: 677 (2%)
Others: 123 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1650 (4.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jessica Morden 14,290 40.7 +3.7
Conservative Natasha Asghar 9,585 27.3 +4.3
UKIP David Stock 6,466 18.4 +16.5
Liberal Democrat Paul Halliday 2,251 6.4 -25.8
Plaid Cymru Tony Salkeld6 1,231 3.5 +1.4
Green David Mclean7 887 2.5 N/A
Socialist Labour Shangara Singh Bhatoe 398 1.1 +0.8
Majority 4,705 13.4 +8.6
Turnout 35,108 62.7 -0.9

Leave Vote: 59.3%

Sitting MP: Jessica Morden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Jessica Morden might be in for a nervous campaign here, but she will probably pull through.

7. Newport West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12845 (32.3%)
Labour: 16389 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6587 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 1122 (2.8%)
BNP: 1183 (3%)
Green: 450 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1144 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 3544 (8.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Paul Flynn6 16,633 41.2 -0.1
Conservative Nick Webb 13,123 32.5 +0.2
UKIP Gordon Norrie 6,134 15.2 +12.3
Plaid Cymru Simon Coopey7 1,604 4.0 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Ed Townsend 1,581 3.9 −12.7
Green Pippa Bartolotti 1,272 3.2 +2.1
Majority 3,510 8.7 −0.2
Turnout 40,347 64.9 0.1

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Paul Flynn (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat should go Tory this time but if it isn’t it can be blamed on the Tories imposing a candidate with no links to the area and without any selection competition.

8. Torfaen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20%)
Labour: 16847 (44.8%)
Lib Dem: 6264 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2005 (5.3%)
BNP: 1657 (4.4%)
Green: 438 (1.2%)
UKIP: 862 (2.3%)
Independent: 1419 (3.8%)
Others: 607 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 9306 (24.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nick Thomas-Symonds 16,938 44.6 −0.2
Conservative Graham Smith 8,769 23.1 +3.1
UKIP Ken Beswick 7,203 19.0 +16.7
Plaid Cymru Boydd Hackley-Green 2,169 5.7 +0.4
Liberal Democrat Alison Willott 1,271 3.4 −13.2
Green Matt Cooke5 746 2.0 +0.8
Socialist Labour John Cox 697 1.8 N/A
Communist Mark Griffiths 144 0.4 N/A
Majority 8,169 21.5 −3.2
Turnout 37,937 61.3 -0.2

Leave Vote: 53.5%

Sitting MP: Nick Thomas-Symonds (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A few elections ago Labour was polling 30k votes here. That number has nearly halved. The Tories have increased their vote over the years and are now pushing 10k. They have this seat in their sights, but a lot will depend on their local campaign.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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