General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 54. Wales - Mid Glamorgan

3 May 2017 at 11:55

MID GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 1, Lab 4

1. Bridgend

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11668 (30.4%)
Labour: 13931 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8658 (22.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2269 (5.9%)
BNP: 1020 (2.7%)
UKIP: 801 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 2263 (5.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Madeleine Moon 14,624 37.1 +0.7
Conservative Meirion Jenkins 12,697 32.2 +1.8
UKIP Caroline Jones 5,911 15.0 +12.9
Plaid Cymru James Christopher Radcliffe 9 2,784 7.1 +1.1
Liberal Democrat Anita Dawn Davies 10 1,648 4.2 −18.4
Independent Les Tallon Morris 763 1.9 N/A
Green Tony White 736 1.9 N/A
TUSC Aaron David 118 0.3 N/A
Pirate David A Elston 106 0.3 N/A
National Front Adam John Lloyd 66 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,927 4.9 −1.0
Turnout 39,453 65.8 +0.5

2015 Result:
Labour Madeleine Moon 14,624 37.1 +0.7
Conservative Meirion Jenkins 12,697 32.2 +1.8
UKIP Caroline Jones 5,911 15.0 +12.9
Plaid Cymru James Christopher Radcliffe 9 2,784 7.1 +1.1
Liberal Democrat Anita Dawn Davies 10 1,648 4.2 −18.4
Independent Les Tallon Morris 763 1.9 N/A
Green Tony White 736 1.9 N/A
TUSC Aaron David 118 0.3 N/A
Pirate David A Elston 106 0.3 N/A
National Front Adam John Lloyd 66 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,927 4.9 −1.0
Turnout 39,453 65.8 +0.5

Leave Vote: 50.3%

Sitting MP: Madeleine Moon (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

2. Cynon Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3010 (10.1%)
Labour: 15681 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 4120 (13.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 6064 (20.3%)
UKIP: 1001 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 9617 (32.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ann Clwyd 14,532 47.7 −4.8
Plaid Cymru Cerith Griffiths 5,126 16.8 −3.5
UKIP Rebecca Rees-Evans 4,976 16.3 +13.0
Conservative Keith Dewhurst 3,676 12.1 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Angharad Jones 830 2.7 −11.1
Green John Matthews 799 2.6 N/A
Socialist Labour Chris Beggs 533 1.7 N/A
Majority 9,406 30.9 −1.3
Turnout 30,472 59.3 +0.3

Leave Vote: 56.7%

Sitting MP: Ann Clwyd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Ogmore

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5398 (15.6%)
Labour: 18644 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 5260 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3326 (9.6%)
BNP: 1242 (3.6%)
UKIP: 780 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 13246 (38.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chris Elmore 7 12,383 52.6 −0.3
UKIP Glenda Davies 3,808 16.2 +1.2
Plaid Cymru Abi Thomas 3,683 15.7 +5.6
Conservative Alex Williams 2,956 12.6 −3.3
Liberal Democrat Janet Ellard 702 3.0 −0.0
Majority 8,575 36.4 −0.6
Turnout 23,532 43 −20.7

Leave Vote: 58.9%

Sitting MP: Chris Elmore (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Pontypridd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5932 (16.2%)
Labour: 14220 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 11435 (31.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2673 (7.3%)
Green: 361 (1%)
UKIP: 1229 (3.4%)
Christian: 365 (1%)
Others: 456 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 2785 (7.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Owen Smith 15,554 41.1 +2.3
Conservative Ann-Marie Mason 6,569 17.3 +1.1
UKIP Andrew Tomkinson 5,085 13.4 +10.0
Liberal Democrat Mike Powell 4,904 12.9 −18.3
Plaid Cymru Osian Lewis 4,348 11.5 +4.2
Green Katy Clay 992 2.6 +1.6
Socialist Labour Damien Biggs 332 0.9 −0.3
TUSC Esther Pearson 98 0.3 N/A
Majority 8,985 23.7 +16.1
Turnout 37,882 64.3 +1.3

Sitting MP: Owen Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Rhondda

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1993 (6.4%)
Labour: 17183 (55.3%)
Lib Dem: 3309 (10.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 5630 (18.1%)
UKIP: 358 (1.2%)
Independent: 2599 (8.4%)
MAJORITY: 11553 (37.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chris Bryant 15,976 50.7 −4.6
Plaid Cymru Shelley Rees-Owen 8,521 27.0 +8.9
UKIP Ron Hughes 3,998 12.7 +11.5
Conservative Lyn Hudson 2,116 6.7 +0.3
Liberal Democrat George Summers 474 1.5 −9.1
Green Lisa Rapado 453 1.4 N/A
Majority 7,455 23.6 −13.6
Turnout 31,538 60.9 +0.6

Leave Vote: 60%

Sitting MP: Chris Bryant (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

Share: