General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 55. London - South East

3 May 2017 at 21:47

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 6 , Lab 5, LibDem 1
Revised: Con 6, Lab 6

Beckenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27597 (57.9%)
Labour: 6893 (14.5%)
Lib Dem: 9813 (20.6%)
BNP: 1001 (2.1%)
Green: 608 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1551 (3.3%)
English Dem: 223 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 17784 (37.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bob Stewart 27,955 57.3 -0.6
Labour Marina Ahmad 9,484 19.4 +5.0
UKIP Rob Bryant 6,108 12.5 +9.3
Liberal Democrat Anuja Prashar 3,378 6.9 -13.7
Green Ruth Fabricant8 1,878 3.8 +2.6
Majority 18,471 37.8
Turnout 48,803 73.2 +1.2

Leave Vote: 46.6%

Sitting MP: Col Bob Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Bermondsey & Old Southwark

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7638 (17.1%)
Labour: 13060 (29.2%)
Lib Dem: 21590 (48.4%)
BNP: 1370 (3.1%)
Green: 718 (1.6%)
Independent: 155 (0.3%)
Others: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8530 (19.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Neil Coyle 22,146 43.1 +13.8
Liberal Democrat Simon Hughes 17,657 34.3 -14.0
Conservative Jean-Paul Floru 6,051 11.8 -5.3
UKIP Andy Beadle 3,254 6.3 +6.0
Green William Lavin 2,023 3.9 +2.3
TUSC Kingsley Abrams 142 0.3 N/A
Independent Lucy Hall 72 0.1 N/A
All People’s Party Donald Cole 59 0.1 N/A
Republican Socialist Party Steve Freeman 20 0.0 N/A
Majority 4,489 8.7
Turnout 51,424 61.7 +4.2

Leave Vote: 26%

Sitting MP: Neil Coyle (Lab)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Lab hold

To be honest this could go either way. Neil Coyle has been very outspoken against Jeremy Corbyn, but it’s difficult to know whether this will play to his advantage or not. Simon Hughes had an excellent reputation as a constituency MP and it’s entirely possible he may win back the seat. I think he will.

Bexleyheath & Crayford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21794 (50.5%)
Labour: 11450 (26.5%)
Lib Dem: 5502 (12.7%)
BNP: 2042 (4.7%)
Green: 371 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1557 (3.6%)
English Dem: 466 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10344 (24%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Evennett 20,643 47.3 -3.2
Labour Stefano Borella 11,451 26.2 -0.3
UKIP Chris Attard 9,182 21.0 +17.4
Liberal Democrat Richard Davis 1,308 3.0 -9.7
Green Stella Gardiner6 950 2.2 +1.3
English Democrat Maggi Young 151 0.3 -0.8
Majority 9,192 21.3 -2.7
Turnout 43,685 67.4 +1.0

Leave Vote: 65.3%

Sitting MP: David Evennett (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Bromley & Chislehurst

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23569 (53.5%)
Labour: 7295 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 9669 (22%)
BNP: 1070 (2.4%)
Green: 607 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1451 (3.3%)
English Dem: 376 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 13900 (31.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bob Neill 23,343 53.0 -0.5
Labour John Courtneidge 10 9,779 22.2 +5.6
UKIP Emmett Jenner 6,285 14.3 +11.0
Liberal Democrat Sam Webber11 2,836 6.4 -15.5
Green Roisin Robertson12 1,823 4.1 +2.8
Majority 13,564 30.8 -0.8
Turnout 44,066 68.4 +1.1

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Bob Neill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Eltham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15753 (37.5%)
Labour: 17416 (41.5%)
Lib Dem: 5299 (12.6%)
BNP: 1745 (4.2%)
Green: 419 (1%)
UKIP: 1011 (2.4%)
English Dem: 217 (0.5%)
Independent: 104 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1663 (4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Clive Efford 18,393 42.6 +1.1
Conservative Spencer Drury 15,700 36.4 −1.2
UKIP Peter Whittle 6,481 15.0 +12.6
Liberal Democrat Alex Cunliffe 1,308 3.0 −9.6
Green James Parker 1,275 3.0 +2.0
Majority 2,693 6.2 +2.2
Turnout 43,157 67.4 +0.4

Leave Vote: 52.4%

Sitting MP: Clive Efford (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Highly marginal seat which the Tories expected to take in 2010. They didn’t manage it last time, but this time it looks like Taxi for Mr Efford!

Erith & Thamesmead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13365 (31.5%)
Labour: 19068 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 5116 (12%)
BNP: 2184 (5.1%)
Green: 322 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1139 (2.7%)
English Dem: 465 (1.1%)
Others: 817 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 5703 (13.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Teresa Pearce 21,209 49.8 +4.9
Conservative Anna Firth 11,684 27.4 −4.0
UKIP Ronie Johnson 7,368 17.3 +14.6
Liberal Democrat Simon Waddington 972 2.3 −9.8
Green Ann Garrett 941 2.2 +1.4
Christian Peoples Sidney Cordle 255 0.6 −0.3
English Democrat Graham Moore 188 0.4 −0.7
Majority 9,525 22.4 +9
Turnout 42,617 60.5 +0.3

Leave Vote: 54.6%

Sitting MP: Teresa Pearce (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Greenwich & Woolwich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10109 (24.5%)
Labour: 20262 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 7498 (18.2%)
BNP: 1151 (2.8%)
Green: 1054 (2.6%)
English Dem: 339 (0.8%)
Christian: 443 (1.1%)
TUSC: 267 (0.6%)
Independent: 65 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 10153 (24.7%

2015 Result:
Labour Matthew Pennycook 24,384 52.2 +3.0
Conservative Matt Hartley 12,438 26.6 +2.1
UKIP Ryan Acty11 3,888 8.3 N/A
Green Abbey Akinoshun12 2,991 6.4 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Tom Holder13 2,645 5.7 -12.5
TUSC Lynne Chamberlain 370 0.8 +0.1
Majority 11,946 25.6 +0.9
Turnout 46,716 63.7 +0.8

Leave Vote: 34.7%

Sitting MP: Matthew Pennycook (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Lewisham Deptford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5551 (13.5%)
Labour: 22132 (53.7%)
Lib Dem: 9633 (23.4%)
Green: 2772 (6.7%)
Others: 1132 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 12499 (30.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Vicky Foxcroft 28,572 60.2 +6.6
Conservative Bim Afolami 7,056 14.9 +1.4
Green John Coughlin 5,932 12.5 +5.8
Liberal Democrat Michael Bukola 2,497 5.3 -18.1
UKIP Massimo DiMambro 2,013 4.2 N/A
People Before Profit Helen Mercer 666 1.4 N/A
Christian Peoples Malcolm Martin 300 0.6 -0.5
TUSC Chris Flood 286 0.6 N/A
Democratic Reform Phil Badger 74 0.2 N/A
Independent David Harvey 30 0.1 N/A
Majority 21,516 45.4 +15.1
Turnout 47,426 64.6 +3.1

Leave Vote: 24.4%

Sitting MP: Vicky Foxcroft (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Lewisham East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9850 (23.6%)
Labour: 17966 (43.1%)
Lib Dem: 11750 (28.2%)
Green: 624 (1.5%)
UKIP: 771 (1.8%)
English Dem: 426 (1%)
Others: 332 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 6216 (14.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Heidi Alexander 23,907 55.7 +12.6
Conservative Peter Fortune 9,574 22.3 -1.3
UKIP Anne Waters 3,886 9.1 +7.2
Liberal Democrat Julia Fletcher 2,455 5.7 -22.4
Green Störm Poorun 2,429 5.7 +4.2
People Before Profit Nick Long 390 0.9 +0.1
Christian Peoples Maureen Martin 282 0.7 N/A
Majority 14,333 33.4 +18.5
Turnout 42,923 64.1 +0.8

Leave Vote: 35.4%

Sitting MP: Heidi Alexander (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Lewisham West & Penge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11489 (25.5%)
Labour: 18501 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 12673 (28.1%)
Green: 931 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.5%)
Others: 317 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 5828 (12.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jim Dowd 24,347 50.6 +9.5
Conservative Russell Jackson 11,633 24.2 -1.3
Green Tom Chance 4,077 8.5 +6.4
UKIP Gary Harding 3,764 7.8 +5.3
Liberal Democrat Alex Feakes 3,709 7.7 -20.4
TUSC Martin Powell-Davies 391 0.8 N/A
Independent David Hansom 160 0.3 N/A
Liberty GB Dr George Whale 84 0.1 N/A
Majority 12,714 26.4 +13.5
Turnout 48,125 66.6 +1.4

Leave Vote: 346%

Sitting MP: Jim Dowd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Old Bexley & Sidcup

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24625 (54.1%)
Labour: 8768 (19.3%)
Lib Dem: 6996 (15.4%)
BNP: 2132 (4.7%)
Green: 371 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1532 (3.4%)
English Dem: 520 (1.1%)
Others: 548 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 15857 (34.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Brokenshire 24,682 52.8 −1.3
Labour Ibby Mehmet 8,879 19.0 −0.3
UKIP Catherine Reilly 8,528 18.2 +14.9
Liberal Democrat Jennifer Keen 1,644 3.5 −11.9
Green Derek Moran 1,336 2.9 +2.0
National Health Action Bob Gill 1,216 2.6 N/A
Christian Laurence Williams 245 0.5 N/A
BNP Nicola Finch 218 0.5 −4.2
Majority 15,803 33.8 −1.1
Turnout 46,748 70.8 +1.5

Leave Vote: 62.4%

Sitting MP: James Brokenshire (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Orpington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29200 (59.7%)
Labour: 4400 (9%)
Lib Dem: 12000 (24.5%)
BNP: 1241 (2.5%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.8%)
English Dem: 199 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 17200 (35.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jo Johnson 28,152 57.4 -2.3
UKIP Idham Ramadi12 8,173 16.7 +13.9
Labour Nigel de Gruchy 7,645 15.6 +6.6
Liberal Democrat Peter Brooks 3,330 6.8 -17.7
Green Tamara Galloway13 1,732 3.5 +2.5
Majority 19,979 40.7 +5.5
Turnout 49,032 72.6 +0.4

Leave Vote: 56.2%

Sitting MP: Jo Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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