General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 61. Surrey

SURREY

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 11
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 11

1. East Surrey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31007 (56.7%)
Labour: 4925 (9%)
Lib Dem: 14133 (25.9%)
UKIP: 3770 (6.9%)
Independent: 383 (0.7%)
Others: 422 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 16874 (30.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Sam Gyimah 32,211 57.4 +0.7
UKIP Helena Windsor 9,553 17.0 +10.1
Labour Matt Wilson 6,627 11.8 +2.8
Liberal Democrat David Lee 5,189 9.2 -16.6
Green Nicola Dodgson 2,159 3.8 N/A
Independent Sandy Pratt 364 0.6 N/A
Majority 22,658 40.4
Turnout 56,103 70.4 −0.7

Leave Vote: 54.2%

Sitting MP: Sam Gyimah
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Epsom & Ewell

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30868 (56.2%)
Labour: 6538 (11.9%)
Lib Dem: 14734 (26.8%)
UKIP: 2549 (4.6%)
Others: 266 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16134 (29.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Grayling 33,309 58.3 +2.1
Labour Sheila Carlson 8,866 15.5 +3.6
UKIP Robert Leach 7,117 12.5 +7.8
Liberal Democrat Stephen Gee 5,002 8.8 -18.1
Green Susan McGrath 2,116 3.7 N/A
Independent Lionel Blackman 612 1.1 N/A
Independent Gareth Harfoot 121 0.2 N/A
Majority 24,443 42.8
Turnout 57,143 72.7 +2.3

Leave Vote: 47.8%

Sitting MP: Chris Grayling (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Esher & Walton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32134 (58.9%)
Labour: 5829 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 13541 (24.8%)
UKIP: 1783 (3.3%)
English Dem: 307 (0.6%)
Independent: 378 (0.7%)
Others: 571 (1%)
MAJORITY: 18593 (34.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Dominic Raab 35,845 62.9 +4.0
Labour Francis Eldergill 7,229 12.7 +2.0
UKIP Nicholas Wood 5,551 9.7 +6.5
Liberal Democrat Andrew Davis 5,372 9.4 −15.4
Green Olivia Palmer 2,355 4.1 N/A
CISTA Matthew Heenan 396 0.7 N/A
Independent Della Reynolds 228 0.4 N/A
Majority 28,616 50.2
Turnout 56,976 71.3 −0.7

Leave Vote: 41.6%

Sitting MP: Dominic Raab (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Guildford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29618 (53.3%)
Labour: 2812 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 21836 (39.3%)
UKIP: 1021 (1.8%)
Others: 280 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7782 (14%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anne Milton 30,802 57.1 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Kelly-Marie Blundell 8,354 15.5 −23.8
Labour Richard Wilson 6,534 12.1 +7.0
UKIP Harry Aldridge 4,774 8.8 +7.0
Green John Pletts 2,558 4.7 N/A
Guildford Greenbelt Group Susan Parker 538 1.0 N/A
Peace John Morris 230 0.4 −0.1
CISTA Gerri Smyth 196 0.4 N/A
Majority 22,448 41.6 +27.6
Turnout 53,986 70.5 −1.6

Sitting MP: Anne Milton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Hard to think this was a LibDem seat not that long ago.

5. Mole Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31263 (57.5%)
Labour: 3804 (7%)
Lib Dem: 15610 (28.7%)
Green: 895 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2752 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 15653 (28.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Paul Beresford⁵ 33,434 60.6 +3.1
Liberal Democrat Paul Kennedy 7,981 14.5 −14.3
UKIP Paul Oakley ⁶ 6,181 11.2 +6.1
Labour Leonard Amos⁷ 4,565 8.3 +1.3
Green Jacquetta Fewster⁸ 2,979 5.4 +3.8
Majority 25,453 46.1
Turnout 55,329 74.2 −0.6

Leave Vote: 47.3%

Sitting MP: Sir Paul Beresford (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Reigate

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26688 (53.4%)
Labour: 5672 (11.3%)
Lib Dem: 13097 (26.2%)
BNP: 1345 (2.7%)
Green: 1087 (2.2%)
UKIP: 2089 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 13591 (27.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Crispin Blunt 29,151 56.8 +3.4
UKIP Joe Fox 6,817 13.3 +9.1
Labour Ali Aklakul 6,578 12.8 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Anna Tarrant 5,369 10.5 −15.7
Green Jonathan Essex 3,434 6.7 +4.5
Majority 22,334 43.5
Turnout 51,349 69.9 +0.1

Leave Vote: 48%

Sitting MP: Crispin Blunt (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Runneymede & Weybridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26915 (55.9%)
Labour: 6446 (13.4%)
Lib Dem: 10406 (21.6%)
Green: 696 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3146 (6.5%)
Independent: 541 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 16509 (34.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Philip Hammond 29,901 59.7 +3.8
Labour Arran Neathey 7,767 15.5 +2.1
UKIP Joe Branco⁸ 6,951 13.9 +7.4
Liberal Democrat John Vincent⁹ 3,362 6.7 −14.9
Green Rustam Majainah¹⁰ 2,071 4.1 +2.7
Majority 22,134 44.2 +7.9
Turnout 50,224 68.1 +1.7

Leave Vote: 49.8%

Sitting MP: Philip Hammond (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. South West Surrey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33605 (58.7%)
Labour: 3419 (6%)
Lib Dem: 17287 (30.2%)
BNP: 644 (1.1%)
Green: 690 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1486 (2.6%)
Others: 128 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 16318 (28.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jeremy Hunt 34,199 59.6 +0.9
UKIP Mark Webber 5,643 9.8 +7.2
Labour Howard Kaye 5,415 9.4 +3.4
National Health Action Louise Irvine 4,851 8.5 +8.5
Liberal Democrat Patrick Haveron1 3,586 6.3 −23.9
Green Susan Ryland¹⁰ 3,105 5.4 +4.2
Something New Paul Robinson 320 0.6 +0.6
Majority 28,556 49.8 +21.3
Turnout 54,014

Leave Vote: 40.7%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Hunt (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Spelthorne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22261 (47.1%)
Labour: 7789 (16.5%)
Lib Dem: 12242 (25.9%)
UKIP: 4009 (8.5%)
TUSC: 176 (0.4%)
Independent: 314 (0.7%)
Others: 513 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10019 (21.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kwasi Kwarteng 24,386 49.7 +2.6
UKIP Redvers Cunningham⁹ 10,234 20.9 +12.4
Labour Rebecca Geach¹⁰ 9,114 18.6 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Rosie Shimell¹¹ 3,163 6.4 -19.4
Green Paul Jacobs¹² 1,724 3.5 N/A
Independent Juliet Griffith 230 0.5 N/A
TUSC Paul Couchman¹³ 228 0.5 +0.1
Majority 14,152 28.8

Leave Vote: 60.35

Sitting MP: Kwasi Kwarteng (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Surrey Heath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31326 (57.6%)
Labour: 5552 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 14037 (25.8%)
UKIP: 3432 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 17289 (31.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Michael Gove 32,582 59.9 Increase 2.2
UKIP Paul Chapman¹⁰ 7,778 14.3 Increase 8.0
Labour Laween Atroshi 6,100 11.2 Increase 1.0
Liberal Democrat Ann-Marie Barker 4,937 9.1 Decrease 16.8
Green Kimberley Lawson¹¹ 2,400 4.4 N/A
Christian Juliana Brimicombe 361 0.7 N/A
Independent Bob and Roberta Smith¹² 273 0.5 N/A
Majority 24,804 45.6 Increase 13.8
Turnout 54,431 68.5 Decrease 1.5

Leave Vote: 51.2%

Sitting MP: Michael Gove (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Woking

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26551 (50.3%)
Labour: 4246 (8%)
Lib Dem: 19744 (37.4%)
UKIP: 1997 (3.8%)
Others: 248 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6807 (12.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jonathan Lord 29,199 56.2 +5.9
Labour Jill Rawling 8,389 16.1 +8.1
Liberal Democrat Chris Took 6,047 11.6 −25.8
UKIP Rob Burberry 5,873 11.3 +7.5
Green Martin Robson 2,109 4.1 N/A
CISTA Declan Wade 229 0.4 N/A
Magna Carta Conservation Party Great Britain Ruth Temple 77 0.1 N/A
The Evolution Party Angela Woolford 41 0.1 N/A
Majority 20,810 40.0 +27.1
Turnout 51,964 70.0 −1.5

Leave Vote: 44.3%

Sitting MP: Jonathan Lord (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE