General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 62: Wiltshire

WILTSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7

1. Chippenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21500 (41%)
Labour: 3620 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 23970 (45.8%)
BNP: 641 (1.2%)
Green: 446 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1783 (3.4%)
English Dem: 307 (0.6%)
Christian: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 2470 (4.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Michelle Donelan¹⁸ 26,354 47.6 +6.6
Liberal Democrat Duncan Hames¹⁸ 16,278 29.4 -16.4
UKIP Julia Reid¹⁹ 5,884 10.6 +7.2
Labour Andy Newman²⁰ 4,561 8.2 +1.3
Green Tina Johnston ²¹ 2,330 4.2 +3.3
Majority 10,076 18.2 13.5
Turnout 55,407 74.7 +2.0

Leave Vote: 51.2%

Sitting MP: Michelle Donelan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This was a Tory gain from the LibDems last time and is another of those ‘blue wall’ west country seats which the LibDems are going to have great difficulty in winning back.

2. Devizes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25519 (55.1%)
Labour: 4711 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 12514 (27%)
Green: 813 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2076 (4.5%)
Independent: 566 (1.2%)
Others: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 13005 (28.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Claire Perry 28,295 57.7 +2.7
UKIP David Pollitt 7,544 15.4 +10.9
Labour Chris Watts 6,360 13.0 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Manda Rigby 3,954 8.1 −18.9
Green Emma Dawnay¹⁰ 2,853 5.8 +4.1
Majority 20,751 42.3 +14.2
Turnout 49,006 70.8 +2

Leave Vote: 53.5%

Sitting MP: Claire Perry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. North Swindon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22408 (44.6%)
Labour: 15348 (30.5%)
Lib Dem: 8668 (17.2%)
BNP: 1542 (3.1%)
Green: 487 (1%)
UKIP: 1842 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 7060 (14%)

2015 Result
Conservative Justin Tomlinson 26,295 50.3 +5.8
Labour Mark Dempsey ⁸ 14,509 27.8 -2.7
UKIP James Faulkner⁹ 8,011 15.3 +11.7
Green Poppy Hebden-Leeder 1,723 3.3 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Janet Ellard¹⁰ 1,704 3.3 -14.0
Majority 11,786 22.6
Turnout 64.5

Leave Vote: 57.3%

Sitting MP: Justin Tomlinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. North Wiltshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25114 (51.6%)
Labour: 3239 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 17631 (36.2%)
Green: 599 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1908 (3.9%)
Independent: 208 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7483 (15.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Whiteside Gray⁶ 28,938 57.2 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Brian Mathew⁶ 7,892 15.6 −20.6
UKIP Pat Bryant⁷ 5,813 11.5 +7.6
Labour Peter Baldrey 4,930 9.8 +3.1
Green Phil Chamberlain⁸ 2,350 4.6 +3.4
Independent Simon Killane⁶ 390 0.8 N/A
Independent Giles Wareham 243 0.5 N/A
Majority 21,046 41.6 +26.2
Turnout 50,556 74.5 +1.2

Leave Vote: 50.3%

Sitting MP: James Gray (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Salisbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23859 (49.2%)
Labour: 3690 (7.6%)
Lib Dem: 17893 (36.9%)
BNP: 765 (1.6%)
Green: 506 (1%)
UKIP: 1392 (2.9%)
Independent: 257 (0.5%)
Others: 119 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5966 (12.3%

2015 Result:
Conservative John Glen 28,192 55.6 +6.4
Labour Thomas Corbin 7,771 15.3 +7.7
UKIP Paul Martin¹⁶ 6,152 12.1 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Reetendra Banerji 5,099 10.1 -26.9
Green Alison Craig 2,762 5.4 +4.4
Independent Arthur Uther Pendragon¹⁷ 729 1.4 N/A
Majority 20,421 40.3 +28.0
Turnout 50,705 72.9 +1.0

Leave Vote: 49.9%

Sitting MP: John Glen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. South Swindon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19687 (41.8%)
Labour: 16143 (34.3%)
Lib Dem: 8305 (17.6%)
Green: 619 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2029 (4.3%)
Christian: 176 (0.4%)
Independent: 160 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3544 (7.5%)

2015 Result:

Conservative Robert Buckland 22,777 46.2 +4.5
Labour Anne Snelgrove 16,992 34.5 +0.2
UKIP John Short⁹ 5,920 12.0 +7.7
Liberal Democrat Damon Hooton¹⁰ 1,817 3.7 -13.9
Green Talis Kimberley-Fairbourn¹¹ 1,757 3.6 +2.3
Majority 5,785 11.7
Turnout 66.6 +1.7

Leave Vote: 51.7%

Sitting MP: Robert Buckland (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South West Wiltshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25321 (51.7%)
Labour: 5613 (11.5%)
Lib Dem: 14954 (30.5%)
UKIP: 2684 (5.5%)
Independent: 446 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 10367 (21.1%)

2015 Result
Conservative Andrew Murrison 27,198 52.7 +1.0
UKIP Matthew Brown⁶ 9,030 17.5 +12.0
Labour George Aylett 6,948 13.5 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Trevor Carbin 5,482 10.6 -19.9
Green Phil Randle 2,985 5.8 +5.8
Majority 18,168 35.2 +14.1
Turnout 51,643 70.7 +2.3

Leave Vote: 56.9%
Sitting MP: Andrew Murrison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

To see previous predictions, click HERE