General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 64: Northamptonshire

NORTHAMPTONSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7

1. Corby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22886 (42.2%)
Labour: 20991 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 7834 (14.4%)
BNP: 2525 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 1895 (3.5%)

BY ELECTION

Andy Sawford (Labour) 17267 48.4% (+9.8%)
Christine Emmett (Conservative) 9476 26.6% (-15.6%)
Margot Parker (UKIP) 5108 14.3% (n/a)
Jill Hope (Liberal Democrat) 1770 5% (-9.5%)
Gordon Riddell (BNP) 614 1.7% (-3%)
David Wickham (English Democrat) 432 1.2% (n/a)
Jonathan Hornett (Green) 378 1.1% (n/a)
Ian Gillman (Independent) 212 0.6% (n/a)
Peter Reynolds (Cannabis Law Reform) 137 0.4% (n/a)
David Bishop (Elvis Loves Pets) 99 0.3% (n/a)
Mr Mozzarella (Independent) 73 0.2% (n/a)
Rohen Kapur (Young People) 39 0.1% (n/a)
Adam Lotun (Democracy 2015) 35 0.1% (n/a)
Christopher Scotton (United People) 25 0.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 7791 21.8%
Turnout 44.8% (-24.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tom Pursglove 24,023 42.8 +0.6
Labour Co-op Andy Sawford 21,611 38.5 -0.2
UKIP Margot Parker 7,708 13.7 N/A
Liberal Democrat Peter Harris 1,458 2.6 -11.8
Green Jonathan Hornett 1,374 2.4 N/A
Majority 2,412 4.3 +0.7
Turnout 56,174 70.4 +1.2

Leave Vote: 60.1%

Sitting MP: Tom Pursglove (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

I suppose in theory Labour might be hoping to win this back but in all seriousness, I can’t see it.

2. Daventry

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29252 (56.5%)
Labour: 8168 (15.8%)
Lib Dem: 10064 (19.4%)
Green: 770 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2333 (4.5%)
English Dem: 1187 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 19188 (37.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Heaton-Harris⁵ 30,550 58.2 +1.7
Labour Abigail Campbell⁶ 9,491 18.1 +2.3
UKIP Michael Gerard⁷ 8,296 15.8 +11.3
Liberal Democrat Callum Delhoy⁸ 2,352 4.5 -15
Green Steve Whiffen 1,829 3.5 +2
Majority 21,059 40.1 +3
Turnout 52,518 72.2 -0.3

Leave Vote: 58.6%

Sitting MP: Chris Heaton-Harris (Con
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Kettering

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23247 (49.1%)
Labour: 14153 (29.9%)
Lib Dem: 7498 (15.8%)
BNP: 1366 (2.9%)
English Dem: 952 (2%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 9094 (19.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Philip Hollobone 24,467 51.8 +2.7
Labour Rhea Keehn⁶ 11,877 25.2 -4.8
UKIP Jonathan Bullock⁷ 7,600 16.1 +16.1
Green Rob Reeves⁸ 1,633 3.5 N/A
Liberal Democrat Chris McGlynn 1,490 3.2 -12.7
English Democrat Derek Hilling ⁹ 151 0.3 -1.7
Majority 12,590 26.7
Turnout 67.3

Leave Vote: 61%

Sitting MP: Philip Hollobone
Prediction: Conservative hold

UKIP aren’t standing here. Watch Hollobone’s majority rocket.

4. Northampton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13735 (34.1%)
Labour: 11799 (29.3%)
Lib Dem: 11250 (27.9%)
BNP: 1316 (3.3%)
Green: 443 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1238 (3.1%)
Christian: 98 (0.2%)
Independent: 334 (0.8%)
Others: 58 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1936 (4.8%

2015 Result:
Conservative Michael Ellis 16,699 42.4 +8.3
Labour Sally Keeble 13,454 34.1 +4.8
UKIP Tom Rubython⁶ 6,354 16.1 +13.0
Green Tony Clarke⁷ 1,503 3.8 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Angela Paterson 1,401 3.6 -24.4
Majority 3,245 8.2

Leave Vote: 60.3%

Sitting MP: Michael Ellis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Northampton South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15917 (40.8%)
Labour: 9913 (25.4%)
Lib Dem: 7579 (19.4%)
Green: 363 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1897 (4.9%)
English Dem: 618 (1.6%)
Independent: 2242 (5.8%)
Others: 449 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 6004 (15.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Mackintosh 16,163 41.6 +0.7
Labour Kevin McKeever 12,370 31.8 +6.4
UKIP Rose Gibbins 7,114 18.3 +13.4
Liberal Democrat Sadik Chaudhury 1,673 4.3 -15.1
Green Julie Hawkins 1,403 3.6 +2.7
Majority 3,793 9.8
Turnout 38,884 63.4 +5.2

Sitting MP: David Macintosh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Macintosh has stood down. If he hadn’t this seat might have gone back to Labour. It still might, but it’s doubtful.

6. South Northamptonshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33081 (55.2%)
Labour: 10380 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 12603 (21%)
Green: 685 (1.1%)
UKIP: 2406 (4%)
English Dem: 735 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 20478 (34.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrea Leadsom 36,607 60.1 +4.9
Labour Lucy Mills 10,191 16.7 -0.6
UKIP Roger Clark 8,204 13.5 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Tom Snowdon 3,613 5.9 -15.1
Green Damon Boughen 2,247 3.7 +2.5
Majority 26,416 43.4
Turnout 60,862 71.1

Leave Vote: 53.3%

Sitting MP: Andrea Leadsom (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Wellingborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24918 (48.2%)
Labour: 13131 (25.4%)
Lib Dem: 8848 (17.1%)
BNP: 1596 (3.1%)
Green: 480 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1636 (3.2%)
English Dem: 530 (1%)
TUSC: 249 (0.5%)
Independent: 240 (0.5%)
Others: 33 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 11787 (22.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Bone 26,265 52.1 +3.8
UKIP Jonathan Munday⁷ 9,868 19.6 +16.4
Labour Richard Garvie1 9,839 19.5 -5.9
Liberal Democrat Chris Nelson 2,240 4.4 -12.7
Green Marion-Turner-Hawes 2,218 4.4 +3.5
Majority 16,397 32.5
Turnout 50,430 65.4 -1.8

Leave Vote: 63%

Sitting MP: Peter Bone (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To all see previous predictions. click HERE