General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 66. London North East

7 May 2017 at 10:08

LONDON NORTH EAST

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 9
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 7

Chingford & Woodford Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22743 (52.8%)
Labour: 9780 (22.7%)
Lib Dem: 7242 (16.8%)
BNP: 1288 (3%)
Green: 650 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1133 (2.6%)
Independent: 202 (0.5%)
Others: 68 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12963 (30.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Iain Duncan Smith 20,999 47.9 -4.8
Labour Bilal Mahmood 12,613 28.8 +6.1
UKIP Freddy Vachha 5,644 12.9 +10.3
Liberal Democrat Anne Crook 2,400 5.5 -11.3
Green Rebecca Tully 1,854 4.2 +2.7
TUSC Len Hockey8 241 0.6 N/A
Class War Lisa Mckenzie 53 0.1 N/A
Majority 8,386 19.1 -11.0
Turnout 43,804 65.7 -0.8

Leave Vote: 49.9%

Sitting MP: Iain Duncan Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Edmonton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12052 (29.8%)
Labour: 21665 (53.7%)
Lib Dem: 4252 (10.5%)
Green: 516 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1036 (2.6%)
Christian: 350 (0.9%)
Independent: 127 (0.3%)
Others: 379 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 9613 (23.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Kate Osamor 25,388 61.4 +7.8
Conservative Gonul Daniels 9,969 24.1 -5.7
UKIP Neville Watson 3,366 8.1 +5.6
Green Douglas Coker 1,358 3.3 +2.0
Liberal Democrat David Schmitz 897 2.2 -8.3
TUSC Lewis Peacock 360 0.9 +0.9
Majority 15,419 37.3 +13.5
Turnout 41,338 62.6 -0.6

Leave Vote: 47.3%

Sitting MP: Kate Osamor (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Enfield North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18804 (42.3%)
Labour: 17112 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 5403 (12.2%)
BNP: 1228 (2.8%)
Green: 489 (1.1%)
UKIP: 938 (2.1%)
English Dem: 131 (0.3%)
Christian: 161 (0.4%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 96 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1692 (3.8%)

2015 Result;
Labour Joan Ryan9 20,172 43.7 +5.2
Conservative Nick de Bois 19,086 41.4 −0.9
UKIP Deborah Cairns 4,133 9.0 +6.8
Green David Flint 10 1,303 2.8 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Cara Jenkinson 1,059 2.3 −9.9
Christian Peoples Yemi Awolola11 207 0.4 N/A
TUSC Joe Simpson12 177 0.4 N/A
Majority 1,086 2.4
Turnout 46,137 67.7 +0.6

Leave Vote: 47.9%

Sitting MP: Joan Ryan (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat went Tory in 2010 but Labour narrowly won it back in 2015. Nick de Bois is standing again. There isn’t a huge UKIP vote for him to eat into here, but even if only a quarter of it comes over to him, it’s enough to overturn Ryan’s majority. Given the LibDem vote dropped by 75% last time, and this seat had a majority Remain vote, one can expect them to suck quite a few votes from Labour. In addition, this is just the kind of suburban seat that doesn’t warm to a unilateralist Labour leader.

Enfield Southgate

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21928 (49.4%)
Labour: 14302 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 6124 (13.8%)
Green: 632 (1.4%)
UKIP: 505 (1.1%)
Respect: 174 (0.4%)
English Dem: 173 (0.4%)
Independent: 391 (0.9%)
Others: 123 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7626 (17.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Burrowes 22,624 49.4 0.0
Labour Bambos Charalambous 17,871 39.0 +6.8
UKIP David Schofield 2,109 4.6 +3.5
Green Jean Robertson-Molloy 1,690 3.7 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Paul Smith 1,518 3.3 −10.5
Majority 4,753 10.4 -6.8
Turnout 45,812 70.5 +1.3

Leave Vote: 37.6%

Sitting MP: David Burrowes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Hackney North & Stoke Newington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6759 (14.5%)
Labour: 25553 (55%)
Lib Dem: 11092 (23.9%)
Green: 2133 (4.6%)
Christian: 299 (0.6%)
Independent: 96 (0.2%)
Others: 529 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 14461 (31.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Diane Abbott 31,357 62.9 +7.9
Conservative Amy Gray 7,349 14.7 +0.2
Green Heather Finlay 7,281 14.6 +10.0
Liberal Democrat Simon de Deney 2,492 5.0 −18.9
UKIP Keith Fraser 1,085 2.2 +2.2
Animal Welfare Jon Homan 221 0.5 +0.5
Communist League Jonathan Silberman 102 0.2 +0.2
Majority 24,008 48.1 +17.0
Turnout 49,887 60.0 −2.9

Leave Vote: 20.5%

Sitting MP: Diane Abbott (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ilford North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21506 (45.7%)
Labour: 16102 (34.2%)
Lib Dem: 5966 (12.7%)
BNP: 1545 (3.3%)
Green: 572 (1.2%)
UKIP: 871 (1.9%)
Others: 456 (1%)
MAJORITY: 5404 (11.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Wes Streeting 21,463 43.9 +9.6
Conservative Lee Scott 20,874 42.7 −3.1
UKIP Philip Hyde 4,355 8.9 +7.0
Liberal Democrat Richard Clare 1,130 2.3 −10.4
Green David Reynolds 1,023 2.1 +0.9
Independent Doris Osen 87 0.2 N/A
Majority 589 1.2
Turnout 48,932 65.0 -0.2

Leave Vote: 53.3%

Sitting MP: Wes Streeting (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

I didn’t think this seat would fall to Labour last time, but it did. Lee Scott is restanding. I think a lot will depend on the demographics and how they have changed since 2015. I suspect not a lot. Wes Streeting has proved to be a popular MP in Westminster and a good constituency MP, but that won’t be enough to save him, I suspect.

Ilford South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14014 (27.4%)
Labour: 25301 (49.4%)
Lib Dem: 8679 (17%)
Green: 1319 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1132 (2.2%)
Others: 746 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 11287 (22%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Mike Gapes5 33,232 64.0 +14.6
Conservative Christopher Chapman 13,455 25.9 −1.5
UKIP Amjad Khan6 2,705 5.2 +3.0
Green Rosemary Warrington7 1,506 2.9 +0.3
Liberal Democrat Ashburn Holder 1,014 2.0 −15.0
Majority 19,777 38.1 +16.0
Turnout 51,912 56.4 −1.6

Leave Vote: 43.3%

Sitting MP: Mike Gapes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Islington North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6339 (14.2%)
Labour: 24276 (54.5%)
Lib Dem: 11875 (26.7%)
Green: 1348 (3%)
UKIP: 716 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 12401 (27.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jeremy Corbyn 29,659 60.2 +5.8
Conservative Alex Burghart 8,465 17.2 +3.0
Green Caroline Russell 5,043 10.2 +7.2
Liberal Democrat Julian Gregory 3,984 8.1 −18.6
UKIP Greg Clough 1,971 4.0 +2.4
Socialist (GB) Bill Martin 112 0.2 N/A
Majority 21,194 43.0 +15.2
Turnout 49,234 67.1 +1.7

Leave Vote: 23.4%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Corbyn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Leyton & Wanstead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8928 (22.2%)
Labour: 17511 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 11095 (27.6%)
BNP: 561 (1.4%)
Green: 562 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1080 (2.7%)
Christian: 342 (0.9%)
Others: 80 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6416 (16%)

2015 Result:
Labour John Cryer 23,858 58.6 +15.0
Conservative Matthew Scott 8,939 22.0 −0.3
Green Ashley Gunstock8 2,974 7.3 +5.9
UKIP Rosamund Beattie9 2,341 5.8 +3.1
Liberal Democrat Carl Quilliam10 2,304 5.7 −22.0
Independent Mahtab Aziz 289 0.7 N/A
Majority 14,919 36.7 +20.7
Turnout 40,705 63.0 −0.2

Leave Vote: 34.8%

Sitting MP: John Cryer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Tottenham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6064 (14.9%)
Labour: 24128 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 7197 (17.7%)
Green: 980 (2.4%)
UKIP: 466 (1.1%)
Christian: 262 (0.6%)
TUSC: 1057 (2.6%)
Independent: 143 (0.4%)
Others: 390 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16931 (41.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour David Lammy 28,654 67.3 +8.0
Conservative Stefan Mrozinski 5,090 12.0 −2.9
Green Dee Searle12 3,931 9.2 +6.8
Liberal Democrat Turhan Ozen 1,756 4.1 −13.6
UKIP Tariq Saeed 1,512 3.6 +2.4
TUSC Jenny Sutton13 1,324 3.1 +0.5
Peace Tania Mahmood14 291 0.7 +0.7
Majority 23,564 55.4 +13.8
Turnout 42,558 60.1 +1.9

Leave Vote: 33.3%

Sitting MP: David Lammy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Walthamstow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5734 (14%)
Labour: 21252 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 11774 (28.7%)
Green: 767 (1.9%)
UKIP: 823 (2%)
Christian: 248 (0.6%)
TUSC: 279 (0.7%)
Independent: 117 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9478 (23.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Stella Creasy 28,779 68.9 +17.0
Conservative Molly Samuels 5,584 13.4 −0.6
Green Michael Gold 2,661 6.4 +4.5
UKIP Paul Hillman 2,507 6.0 +4.0
Liberal Democrat Stephen Cheung 1,661 4.0 −24.7
TUSC Nancy Taaffe 394 0.9 +0.3
Independent Ellie Merton 129 0.3 N/A
Workers Revolutionary Jonty Leff 81 0.2 N/A
Majority 23,195 55.5 +32.4
Turnout 41,796 62.4 -1.0

Leave Vote: 36%

Sitting MP: Stella Creasy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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