General Election Predictions

General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 67. London North West

7 May 2017 at 13:30

LONDON NORTH WEST

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5 , Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 3

Brent Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5067 (11.2%)
Labour: 18681 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 20026 (44.2%)
Green: 668 (1.5%)
Respect: 230 (0.5%)
Christian: 488 (1.1%)
Independent: 163 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1345 (3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Dawn Butler 29,216 62.1 +20.9
Conservative Alan Mendoza7 9,567 20.3 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Lauren Keith8 3,937 8.4 -35.8
Green Shahrar Ali9 1,912 4.1 +2.6
UKIP Stephen Priestley 1,850 3.9 N/A
TUSC John Boyle 235 0.5 N/A
Communities United Kamran Malik 170 0.4 N/A
Independent Noel Coonan 145 0.3 N/A
Majority 19,649 41.8
Turnout 47,032 61.1 -0.1

Leave Vote: 42.9%

Sitting MP: Dawn Butler (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Brent North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16486 (31.5%)
Labour: 24514 (46.9%)
Lib Dem: 8879 (17%)
Green: 725 (1.4%)
UKIP: 380 (0.7%)
English Dem: 247 (0.5%)
Independent: 734 (1.4%)
Others: 333 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8028 (15.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Barry Gardiner 28,351 54.3 +7.4
Conservative Luke Parker 17,517 33.5 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Paul Lorber 2,607 5.0 −12.0
UKIP Alan Craig 2,024 3.9 +3.1
Green Scott Bartle 1,539 2.9 +1.6
Independent Elcena Jeffers 197 0.4 +0.4
Majority 10,834 20.7 5.3
Turnout 52,235 63.5 +1.2

Leave Vote: 42.6%

Sitting MP: Barry Gardiner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Chipping Barnet

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24700 (48.8%)
Labour: 12773 (25.2%)
Lib Dem: 10202 (20.2%)
Green: 1021 (2%)
UKIP: 1442 (2.8%)
Independent: 470 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 11927 (23.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Theresa Villiers 25,759 48.6 –0.2
Labour Amy Trevethan 18,103 34.1 +8.9
UKIP Victor Kaye 4,151 7.8 +5.0
Green Audrey Poppy 2,501 4.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Marisha Ray 10 2,381 4.5 –15.7
Independent Mehdi Akhavan 118 0.2 +0.2
Majority 7,656 14.4 –9.2
Turnout 53,013 68.1 +3.0

Leave Vote: 41.1%

Sitting MP: Theresa Villiers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Finchley & Golders Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21688 (46%)
Labour: 15879 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 8036 (17%)
Green: 737 (1.6%)
UKIP: 817 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 5809 (12.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mike Freer9 25,835 50.9 +4.9
Labour Sarah Sackman9 20,173 39.7 +6.1
UKIP Richard King10 1,732 3.4 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Davies11 1,662 3.3 −13.8
Green Adele Ward12 1,357 2.7 +1.1
Majority 5,662 11.2 −1.1
Turnout 50,759 70.0 +8.9

Leave Vote: 31.1%

Sitting MP: Mike Freer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Hampstead & Kilburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17290 (32.7%)
Labour: 17332 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 16491 (31.2%)
BNP: 328 (0.6%)
Green: 759 (1.4%)
UKIP: 408 (0.8%)
Independent: 91 (0.2%)
Others: 123 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 42 (0.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Tulip Siddiq 23,977 44.4 +11.6
Conservative Simon Marcus 22,839 42.3 +9.6
Liberal Democrat Maajid Nawaz 3,039 5.6 −25.6
Green Rebecca Johnson 2,387 4.4 +3.0
UKIP Magnus Nielsen 1,532 2.8 +2.1
Independent The Eurovisionary Carroll * 113 0.2 N/A
U Party Robin Ellison 77 0.1 N/A
Majority 1,138 2.1 +2.0
Turnout 53,964 67.3 +1.0

Leave Vote: 23.7%

Sitting MP: Tulip Siddiq (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Very difficult to predict, even though if it wasn’t in central London, I’d be predicting an automatic Conservative gain. A very small Leave vote here, this result may well depend on whether people vote on Brexit as a single issue. Tulip Siddiq has been a vocal Remain supporter and her best bet is to concentrate on that single issue. If the Tory vote holds up and any Labour votes seep to the LibDems, then Ms Siddiq is toast. I suspect that might well happen.

Harrow East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21435 (44.7%)
Labour: 18032 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 6850 (14.3%)
Green: 793 (1.7%)
UKIP: 896 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3403 (7.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bob Blackman 24,668 50.3 +5.7
Labour Uma Kumaran 19,911 40.6 +3.1
UKIP Aidan Powlesland 2,333 4.8 +2.9
Liberal Democrat Ross Barlow 1,037 2.1 -12.2
Green Emma Wallace 846 1.7 +0.1
TUSC Nana Asante 205 0.4 +0.4
Majority 4,757 9.7 +2.6
Turnout 49,000 69.0 +1.9

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Bob Blackman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Harrow West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16968 (36.8%)
Labour: 20111 (43.6%)
Lib Dem: 7458 (16.2%)
Green: 625 (1.4%)
UKIP: 954 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3143 (6.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Gareth Thomas 21,885 47.0 +3.3
Conservative Hannah David 19,677 42.2 +5.4
UKIP Ali Bhatti 2,047 4.3 +2.2
Liberal Democrat Chris Noyce 1,567 3.3 −12.9
Green Rowan Langley 1,310 2.8 +1.4
Independent Kailash Trivedi 117 0.2 N/A
Majority 2,208 4.7 −2.1
Turnout 46,603 66.9 −0.7

Leave Vote: 41.9%

Sitting MP: Gareth Thomas (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Labour vote has been declining here, partly for demographic reasons. The Tories had hoped to take this seat last time, but they are odds on to do so now.

Hendon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19635 (42.3%)
Labour: 19529 (42.1%)
Lib Dem: 5734 (12.4%)
Green: 518 (1.1%)
UKIP: 958 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 106 (0.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Matthew Offord 24,328 49.0 +6.7
Labour Andrew Dismore 20,604 41.5 −0.6
UKIP Raymond Shamash7 2,595 5.2 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Alasdair Hill 1,088 2.2 −10.2
Green Ben Samuel 1,015 2.0 +0.9
Majority 3,724 7.5 +7.3
Turnout 49,630 65.9 +7.1

Leave Vote: 41.6%

Sitting MP: Matthew Offord
Prediction: Conservative hold

One of those seats that defies predictions and remains Conservative. It will do so again.

Hornsey & Wood Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9174 (16.7%)
Labour: 18720 (34%)
Lib Dem: 25595 (46.5%)
Green: 1261 (2.3%)
Independent: 201 (0.4%)
Others: 91 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6875 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Catherine West10 29,417 50.9 +16.9
Liberal Democrat Lynne Featherstone 18,359 31.8 -14.7
Conservative Suhail Rahuja 5,347 9.3 -7.4
Green Gordon Peters 3,146 5.4 +3.2
UKIP Clive Morrison11 1,271 2.2 n/a
Christian Peoples Helen Spiby-Vann 118 0.2 n/a
Workers Revolutionary Frank Sweeney 82 0.1 n/a
Hoi Polloi Geoff Moseley 45 0.1 n/a
Majority 11,058 19.1
Turnout 57,785 72.9 +4.0

Leave Vote: 18.2%

Sitting MP: Catherine West (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If Lynne Featherstone had been standing again here I’d have predicted she would give Catherine West a run for her money, but an 11k majority is surely too much for a LibDem candidate to overturn. Having said that, this has one of the highest Remain votes in the country and if there is enough anti-Corbyn feeling here, you never know.

Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28866 (57.5%)
Labour: 9806 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 8345 (16.6%)
Green: 740 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1351 (2.7%)
Christian: 198 (0.4%)
Others: 899 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 19060 (38%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Hurd 30,521 59.6 +2.1
Labour Michael Borio 10,297 20.1 +0.6
UKIP Gerard Barry12 5,598 10.9 +8.2
Liberal Democrat Josh Dixon 2,537 5.0 -11.7
Green Karen Pillai13 1,801 3.5 +2.0
TUSC Wally Kennedy 302 0.6 +0.6
NLP Sockalingam Yogalingam14 166 0.3 +0.3
Majority 20,224 39.5 +1.5
Turnout 51,222 70.0 -0.8

Leave Vote: 49.5%

Sitting MP: Nick Hurd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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