Over the last few days I have been burnishing my credentials as a political geek and been carrying out some research about the likely makeup of the next House of Commons. In particular the likely number of women MPs. I’ve used my Seat by Seat predictions to analyse how many female MPs there will be from each party and who they will be. I’ll come to the detail in a moment, but my research shows that the number of Conservative female MPs will rise by around a third, but the number of Labour MPs who are female will plummet, even though the percentage of women will rise. Overall, though, the total number of female MPs is unlikely to rise by more than a few.
Let’s put this into some historical context. Since 1918 there have been 456 female MPs. If I am right about the likely Tory majority and makeup of the House of Commons after June 8th we will see 35 new female MPs across all parties – 25 of them Conservatives. These include three ‘retreads’ (Mary Macleod, Esther McVey & Jo Swinson).
This is a list of all the new female MPs…
Bath Lib Wera Hobhouse
Batley and Spen Con Ann Myatt
Birmingham, Edgbaston Con Caroline Squire
Birmingham, Northfield Con Meg Powell Chandler
Brentford and Isleworth Con Mary Macleod
Bristol East Theodora Clarke
Bristol West Green Mary Scott Cato
Chelmsford Con Vicky Ford
Chorley Con Caroline Moon
Coventry North West Con Resham Kotecha
Coventry South Con Michelle Lowe
Dagenham and Rainham Con Julie Marson
Dewsbury Con Beth Prescott
Ealing Central and Acton Con Joy Morrissey
Gedling Con Carolyn Abbott
Great Grimsby Con Jo Gideon
Hampstead and Kilburn Con Claire-Louise Leyland
Harrow West Con Hannah David
Hornchurch and Upminster Con Julia Dockerill
Hove Con Kristy Adams
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle Lab Emma Hardy
Leigh Lab Jo Platt
Lewes Lib Kelly-Marie Blundell
Lewisham West and Penge Lab Ellie Reeves
Oxford East Lab Annaliese Dodds
Saffron Walden Con Kemi Adegoke
Scunthorpe Con Holly Mumby-Scott
Tatton Con Esther McVey
Thornbury and Yate Lib Clare Young
Westminster North Con Lindsay Hall
Wolverhampton North East Con Sarah Macken
East Dunbartonshire Lib Jo Swinson
Alyn and Deeside Con Laura Knightly
Cardiff Central LibDem Eluned Parrott
Llanelli Plaid Mari Arthur
Newport West Con Angela Rhys Evans
Bridgend Con Karen Robson
After June 8th, assuming a Tory majority of around 130, there will be 195 female MPs in the House of Commons – only tfour more than there are at the moment. This is mainly because the number of female Labour MPs will reduce from 99 to 73. The number of Tory female MPs rises from 68 to 93, and the number of female LibDems from 0 to 5.
Percentage wise the Tory contingent goes up from 20.5% to 23.7%, the Labour proportion rises from 42.5% to 44.8%. The SNP drops from 20 to 17 female MPs and from 35.7% to 32%.
Here’s the list of all 195 female candidates I predict will be elected on June 8th by constituency.
Aberdeen North SNP Kirsty Blackman
Aldridge-Brownhills Con Wendy Morton
Alyn and Deeside Con Laura Knightly
Ashfield Lab Gloria de Piero
Ashton-under-Lyne Lab Angela Rayner
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock SNP Corri Wilson
Banbury Con Victoria Prentis
Banff and Buchan SNP Eilidh Whiteford
Barking Lab Margaret Hodge
Barnsley East Lab Steph Peacock
Basingstoke Con Maria Miller
Bath Lib Wera Hobhouse
Batley and Spen Con Ann Myatt
Battersea Con Jane Ellison
Berwick-upon-Tweed Con Ann Marie Trevelyan
Bethnal Green and Bow Lab Rushanara Ali
Birmingham, Edgbaston Con Caroline Squire
Birmingham, Ladywood Lab Shabana Mahmood
Birmingham, Northfield Con Meg Powell Chandler
Birmingham, Yardley Lab Jess Phillips
Blackburn Lab Kate Hollern
Blaydon Lab Liz Twist
Bolton South East Lab Yasmin Quereshi
Bradford West Lab Naz Shah
Brent Central Lab Dawn Butler
Brentford and Isleworth Con Mary Macleod
Bridgend Con Karen Robson
Brighton, Pavilion Green Caroline Lucas
Bristol East Con Theodora Clarke
Bristol North West Con Charlotte Leslie
Bristol West Green Mary Scott Cato
Broxtowe Con Anna Soubry
Bury St Edmunds Con Jo Churchill
Camberwell and Peckham Lab Harriet Harman
Cannock Chase Con Amanda Milling
Cardiff Central LibDem Eluned Parrott
Castle Point Con Rebecca Harris
Central Ayrshire SNP Philippa Whitford
Chatham and Aylesford Con Tracey Crouch
Cheadle Con Mary Robinson
Chelmsford Con Vicky Ford
Chesham and Amersham Con Cheryl Gillan
Chippenham Con Michelle Donelan
Chipping Barnet Con Theresa Villiers
Chorley Con Caroline Moon
City of Durham Lab Roberta Blackman-Woods
Congleton Con Fiona Bruce
Copeland Con Trudi Harrison
Coventry North East Lab Colleen Fletcher
Coventry North West Con Resham Kotecha
Coventry South Con Michelle Lowe
Cynon Valley Lab Ann Clwyd
Dagenham and Rainham Con Julie Marson
Derby North Con Amanda Solloway
Derby South Lab Margaret Beckett
Devizes Con Claire Perry
Dewsbury Con Beth Prescott
Don Valley Lab Caroline Flint
Doncaster Central Lab Rosie Winterton
Dulwich and West Norwood Lab Helen Hayes
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Plaid Liz Savile-Roberts
Ealing Central and Acton Con Joy Morrissey
East Dunbartonshire Lib Jo Swinson
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow SNP Lisa Cameron
East Renfrewshire SNP Kirsten Oswald
Eastbourne Con Caroline Ansell
Eastleigh Con Mims Davies
Eddisbury Con Antoniette Sandbach
Edinburgh North and Leith SNP Deirdre Brock
Edinburgh South West SNP Joanna Cherry
Edmonton Lab Kate Osamor
Epping Forest Con Eleanor Laing
Erewash Con Maggie Throup
Erith and Thamesmead Lab Theresa Pearce
Falkirk SNP John McNally
Fareham Con Suella Fernandes
Faversham and Mid Kent Con Helen Whateley
Feltham and Heston Lab Seema Malhotra
Fermanagh & South Tyrone SF Michelle Gildernew
Garston and Halewood Lab Maria Eagle
Gedling Con Carolyn Abbott
Glasgow Central SNP Alison Thewliss
Glasgow North East SNP Ann McLaughlin
Glasgow North West SNP Carol Monaghan
Gosport Con Caroline Dinenage
Great Grimsby Con Jo Gideon
Guildford Con Anne Milton
Hackney North and Stoke Newington Lab Diane Abott
Hackney South and Shoreditch Lab Meg Hillier
Hampstead and Kilburn Lab Claire-Louise Leyland
Harrow West Con Hannah David
Hastings and Rye Con Amber Rudd
Heywood and Middleton Lab Liz McInnes
Hornchurch and Upminster Con Julia Dockerill
Hornsey and Wood Green Lab Catherine West
Houghton and Sunderland South Lab Bridget Phillipson
Hove Con Kristy Adams
Islington South and Finsbury Lab Emily Thornberry
Kensington Con Victoria Borwick
Kingston upon Hull North Lab Diana Johnson
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle Lab Emma Hardy
Lanark and Hamilton East SNP Angela Crawley
Leeds West Lab Rachel Reeves
Leicester South Lab Liz Kendall
Leigh Lab Jo Platt
Lewes Lib Kelly-Marie Blundell
Lewisham East Lab Heidi Alexander
Lewisham West and Penge Lab Ellie Reeves
Lewisham, Deptford Lab Vicky Foxcroft
Liverpool, Riverside Lab Louise Ellman
Liverpool, Wavertree Lab Luciana Berger
Livingston SNP Hannah Bardell
Llanelli Plaid Mari Arthur
Loughborough Con Nicky Morgan
Louth and Horncastle Con Victoria Atkins
Maidenhead Con Theresa May
Maidstone and The Weald Con Helen Grant
Makerfield Lab Yvonne Fovargue
Manchester Central Lab Lucy Powell
Meriden Con Caroline Spelman
Mid Bedfordshire Con Nadine Dorries
Mid Derbyshire Con Pauline Latham
Mitcham and Morden Lab Siobhain McDonagh
Morley and Outwood Con Andrea Jenkyns
Neath Lab Christina Rees
Newcastle upon Tyne Central Lab Chi Onwurah
Newcastle upon Tyne North Lab Catherine McKinnell
Newport East Lab Jessica Morden
Newport West Con Angela Rhys Jones
Newton Abbot Con Anne-Marie Morris
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Lab Yvette Cooper
North Ayrshire and Arran SNP Patricia Blackford
North Down Ind Sylvia Hermon
North Tyneside Lab Mary Glindon
North West Durham Lab Laura Pidcock
Norwich North Con Chloe Smith
Nottingham South Lab Lilian Greenwood
Ochil and South Perthshire SNP Tasmin Ahmed-Sheikh
Oldham East and Saddleworth Lab Debbie Abrahams
Oxford East Lab Annaliese Dodds
Oxford West and Abingdon Con Nicola Blackwood
Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP Mhairi Black
Penistone and Stocksbridge Con Nicola Wilson
Portsmouth North Con Penny Mordant
Portsmouth South Con Flick Drummond
Putney Con Justine Greening
Redcar Lab Anna Turley
Redditch Con Rachel Maclean
Rochester and Strood Con Kelly Tolhurst
Romsey and Southampton North Con Caroline Nokes
Rotherham Lab Sarah Champion
Rutherglen and Hamilton West SNP Margaret Farrier
Saffron Walden Con Kemi Adegoke
Salford and Eccles Lab Rebecca Long-Bailey
Scunthorpe Con Holly Mumby-Scott
Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough Lab Gill Furniss
Sleaford and North Hykeham Con Caroline Johnson
South Cambridgeshire Con Heidi Allen
South Derbyshire Con Heather Wheeler
South Down SDLP Margaret Ritchie
South East Cambridgeshire Con Lucy Frazer
South East Cornwall Con Sheryll Murray
South Northamptonshire Con Andrea Leadsom
South Ribble Con Seema Kennedy
South Shields Lab Emma Lewell-Buck
South West Norfolk Con Liz Truss
St Albans Con Anne Main
St Helens South and Whiston Lab Marie Rimmer
Staffordshire Moorlands Con Karen Bradley
Stockport Lab Ann Coffey
Stourbridge Con Margaret James
Stretford and Urmston Lab Kate Green
Suffolk Coastal Con Therese Coffey
Sunderland Central Lab Julie Elliott
Swansea East Lab Carolyn Harris
Tatton Con Esther McVey
Taunton Deane Con Rebecca Pow
Telford Con Lucy Allan
Thornbury and Yate Lib Clare Young
Thurrock Con Jackie Doyle-Price
Totnes Con Sarah Wollaston
Truro and Falmouth Con Sarah Newton
Vauxhall Lab Kate Hoey
Wallasey Lab Angela Eagle
Walthamstow Lab Stella Creasy
Warrington North Lab Helen Jones
Washington and Sunderland West Lab Sharon Hodgson
Wealden Con Nusrat Ghani
West Ham Lab Lyn Brown
West Lancashire Lab Rosie Cooper
West Worcestershire Con Harriet Baldwin
Westminster North Con Lindsay Hall
Wigan Lab Lisa Nandy
Wirral South Lab Alison McGovern
Witham Con Priti Patel
Wolverhampton North East Con Sarah Macken
York Central Lab Rachel Maskell
