This article first appeared in the i Newspaper

 

Assuming you don’t live there, think about the last time you thought about Northern Ireland. Events there are routinely ignored in the UK media, despite it being an integral component of the United Kingdom.

It has a population of just shy of two million people, which if it were a city, would make it the second largest in the country. And yet it mostly only makes the news if there is some sort of terror attack. Nearly 27 years after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, it really deserves better. So it is little wonder that there is growing discussion about a reunification of the two parts of Ireland.

Until recently no one really took seriously the prospects for the two parts of Ireland to be reunited. Views were so entrenched, particularly among unionists, that it seemed a pipedream, only indulged in by romanticists in the south. And then Brexit happened.

Since 2022 the Irish Times have been conducting in-depth annual surveys on attitudes to reunification in the north and south. This year’s results make for some fascinating reading.

In Northern Ireland support for a united Ireland has grown to 34 per cent, up eight percentage points in two years with now less than half (48 per cent) opposing it. Among Protestants, support for the union with Britain has increased by two percentage points to 81 per cent while among the Catholic community support for reunification has gone up from 55 per cent to 63 per cent in two years. If this trend continues – and it may well not – then by 2027 there could be a majority across both communities in favour of a united Ireland.

Significantly, if a cross border poll emerged with a majority for unity, the number of unionists who would find this “impossible to accept” has nearly halved in two years (32 per cent to 20 per cent). But one in five of the population is a significant minority – and there are still risks of sparking yet another round of paramilitary resistance.

Support in the Republic for reunification has remained pretty constant at around two thirds of the population. This is rather lower than one might imagine, and indeed over the last two years has fallen to 64 per cent.

It’s a heart versus head thing. People in the south know full well that Britain subsidises the economy in the north to the tune of £10-15bn per annum. This year the Republic of Ireland government will have a total expenditure of £100bn, so at a stroke reunification would increase this expenditure by 10 to 15 per cent.

Would the citizens of the south be prepared to have their taxes increased commensurately? For similar reasons, one in five Catholics in the north want to stay within the governance of the UK. They know that whatever the faults of the British NHS, they would resent paying between €45 and €70 Euros just to visit a GP.

There is little doubt that Brexit has weakened loyalties within younger demographics, especially within the unionist community. The apparent willingness of the then UK government to sell Northern Ireland down the river during Brexit negotiations has contributed to this. There is still a resentment that although Northern Ireland voted to Remain by 56 to 42 per cent, it was forced to join the rest of the UK in coming out. As in Scotland, those resentments still run high.

The new Irish government, led by Taoiseach Micheál Martin, is being pushed by Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald to bring about the circumstances by which a border poll could happen in the next five years. She is unlikely to get her way. Martin believes that reunification can happen but only by persuasion and an emphasis on shared interests.n 1922 we marked the centenary of the Anglo Irish Treaty and the creation of Northern Ireland. I have absolutely no doubt that there will be no 200th anniversary celebrations. I don’t think a united Ireland is an imminent possibility, but I wouldn’t bet against it happening by 2050.

The question is whether the religious divide will be gradually fragmented over the next 30 years. If it is – and this will be largely dependent on a hearts and minds campaign from the South – then reunification could follow, but it won’t be politicians who bring it about.

On this side of the Irish Sea, there will be many who would say good riddance to a seemingly intractable issue. Most, however, would be incredibly sad to bid farewell to a land and a people which has been an integral part of the United Kingdom for more than two centuries.

Iain Dale presents the Evening Show on LBC Radio, Monday to Thursday, 7-10pm. His book The Taoiseach will be published on 23 October by Swift Press