So, only 13 days until Scotland decides its future. This referendum may have a far wider impact than just north of Hadrian’s Wall. Goldman Sachs are warning that the Pound may go into freefall, but the other impact could be on David Cameron and as a consequence the date of the next election. You may think I am mad, but it is entirely possible that we have just entered the last two weeks of David Cameron’s period of office as Prime Minister. If Scotland votes yes, could a prime minister who had lost Scotland really remain in office? As they say north of the border, ‘I have my doots’. If David Cameron didn’t fall on his sword of his own free will, I suspect there are enough Tory MPs to call a leadership election. The other alternative would be to conduct what the Germans call a ‘constructive vote of no-confidence’ in which he would instruct his own MPs to vote against their own government. That’s the only way an early general election could come about. I’m surprised that so few political commentators are speculating in this manner because make no mistake, this will, if there is a yes vote, be the biggest constitutional crisis since the 1936 Abdication crisis, or maybe the House of Lords crisis of 1910. Of course, it may be just as bad if Scotland votes No, but by the narrowest of margins. Then we get the worst of all worlds.
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I’ve been on holiday for the last two weeks. Well, sort of. It’s a holiday that has been somewhat eclipsed by having to put the finishing touches to the Politicos Guide to the General Election. We want it to come out in time for the party conferences, but it’s been a real labour of love putting it all together, along with my three co-editors. We also have the problem of the fact that we don’t know how the Scottish referendum will go or the result of the Clacton by-election. Books like this will always be slightly out of date on the day they are published, mainly because of what Harold Macmillan would call ‘events dear boy, events’. But for a political geek like me, who loves lists and tables about politics it’s like being in political heaven putting it together. The challenge is also to make it accessible for the normal punter. But if you want to know which constituency has the most muslim voters, or what the top Plaid Cymru target seats are, this is the book for you!
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Next week I’ll be chairing three panels to decide on the Top 100 Most Influential People on the Right, the Left and the Top 50 Most Influential Liberal Democrats. The latter one may provide somewhat of a challenge. This year the lists will be published by The Times throughout the party conferences. Do subscribe to their new Red Box email, compiled each morning by Phil Webster.
