Over the next three weeks I will be trying to predict the results of the European Elections which take place in the UK on May 22, with the results being announced late in the evening of Sunday 25 May. I will be hosting a European Elections Special Programme on LBC from 9pm that evening. Let’s now turn to London, where 8 seats are up for grabs. The constituency was formed as a result of the European Parliamentary Elections Act 1999, replacing a number of single-member constituencies. These were London Central, London East, London North, London North East, London North West, London South East, London South Inner, London South West, London West, and parts of London South and Surrey East.
2009
Con 3
UKIP 1
Lab 2
LibDem 1
Green 1
In 2004 the result the Conservatives had 3, UKIP 1, Labour 3, LibDem 1 and the Greens 1. In 1999, when there were 10 seats for London, the Conservatives and Labour had 4 each with the LibDems and Greens both on 1.
My prediction for this year is this…
2014
UKIP 2
Con 2
Lab 3
Green 1
If I’m right it will see the exit from the European Parliament of veteran LibDem MEP Sarah Ludford. However, if the LibDems do retain any sort of representation in the European Parliament they could just squeak in here, which would probably be at the expense of a second seat for UKIP. UKIP have never been strong in London and their polling in the capital remains behind the rest of the country. Anything other than a one seat gain for Labour would be regarded as pretty disastrous by Labour’s high command. If they are to get a majority in 2015 London is crucial to this.
Since the Greens have won a seat at each election since 1999 there is no reason to think they won’t repeat their performance this time. Jean Lambert (a former neighbour of mine in Walthamstow!) has some good name recognition and is on the sensible wing of the Greens.
Predicted Winning Candidates
Conservative Party – Syed Kamall, Charles Tannock
Green Party – Jean Lambert
Labour Party – Claude Moraes, Mary Honeyball, Lucy Anderson
UK Independence Party – Gerard Batten, Paul Oakley
OTHER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS
