Over the next three weeks or so I will be trying to predict the results of the European Elections which take place in the UK on May 22, with the results being announced late in the evening of Sunday 25 May. I will be hosting a European Elections Special Programme on LBC from 9pm that evening. On Friday I started off with EAST ANGLIA Let’s move on to region I live in, the South East of England, where 10 seats are up for grabs. The South East region covers the counties of Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Kent, Oxfordshire, Surrey and West Sussex.

2009

Con 4
UKIP 2
Lab 1
LibDem 2
Green 1

In 2004 the result the Conservatives had 5, UKIP 1, Labour 2, LibDem 2 and the Greens 1. In 1999 the result was identical.

My prediction for this year is this…

2014

UKIP 4
Con 3
Lab 2
Green 1

If I’m right it will see the exit from the European Parliament of UKIP defector to the Tories, Marta Andreassen. Few tears will be shed for her in either party. This result would also see the UKIP Eastleigh candidate Diane James elected to the European Parliament. Some see her as Nigel Farage’s successor. Assuming 4 UKIP MEPs two aides to Farage, Janice Atkinson (former Tory aide to Tim Yeo) and Ray Finch will also succeed.

The big quandary in terms of a prediction here is what will happen to the LibDem vote, and do they have a possibility of retaining one of their current two seats. If they are to win anywhere, it could well be in the South. But surely Labour has to improve on its single seat last time. It is of course possible for the Conservatives to be reduced to two seats, but that would be pretty seismic in their strongest area outside East Anglia.

Since the Greens have won a seat at each election since 1999 there is no reason to think they won’t repeat their performance this time, although their disastrous management of Brighton Council might count against them among voters in East Sussex.

Predicted Winning Candidates

Conservative Party – Dan Hannan, Nirj Deva & Richard Ashworth
Green Party – Keith Taylor
Labour Party – Anneliese Dodds, John Howarth
UK Independence Party – Nigel Farage, Janice Atkinson, Diane James, Ray Finch

My East of England predictions are HERE