This is the second in a series looking at the runners and riders in post-election leadership contests. You can read my article about the runners and riders in a post election LibDem leadership contest HERE. I’ll be looking at the other two parties over the next few weeks, but now it’s UKIP’s turn.

Nigel Farage has already made clear that if he loses South Thanet he will stand down as party leader. He thinks his position would be untenable, and he hasn’t given himself any wiggle room. Some will say this could well mean the end of UKIP, as it is still seen as a bit of a one man band. That’s a little unfair because over the last 18 months several other leading lights in UKIP have made the grade and appear often in the media. Some are more recognisable than others, but even so it is less likely now that UKIP would implode without Farage. In a potential UKIP leadership contest there is genuinely no front-runner. It really could be any one of half a dozen or so contenders.

UKIP LEADERSHIP ELECTION RULES

A postal ballot of all paid up members of the Party shall elect The Party Leader. The Leader’s term of office shall run for four years. This term may be extended by the NEC passing a motion by a two-thirds majority to enable the Leader to stay in post in order to fight a General Election or European Election.

A leadership election shall be called in the event of the Party Leader’s death, incapacity or resignation; on the passing of a vote of no confidence in the Party Leader by the NEC if this is endorsed by an Extraordinary General Meeting of the Party; and on the Party Leader’s completion of his term of office.

Persons wishing to seek election to the post of Party Leader shall pay to the Party funds a deposit equivalent to that demanded of candidates in elections to the UK Parliament, such deposit being returned to the candidate only if the said candidate obtain a percentage of the votes case similar to that required for return of deposit in UK Parliamentary elections. Nominations for the post of Party Leader shall require the signature of a proposer and 50 assentors, all paid-up full members of the Party who are not subject to disciplinary action, drawn from at least 10 different constituency associations or branches. They must be submitted in writing to the Party Secretary within the time specified by him. A Party Leader wishing to resign must communicate this decision in writing to the Party Chairman, who must then summon an emergency meeting of the NEC.

If there is only one valid nomination for the post of Party Leader the candidate nominated shall be declared Party Leader without the need for a ballot. Any contested election for the leadership shall be decided by a simple majority of the votes cast. Those eligible to vote shall be paid-up members of the Party 14 days before the last date for the receipt of ballot papers.

When a vacancy in the leadership occurs due to the Party Leader’s death, incapacity or resignation the election procedure shall be initiated by the Party Secretary.

LIKELY RUNNERS & RIDERS

If Nigel Farage resigns after May 7th, these are the most likely leadership candidates…

PATRICK O’FLYNN
Age: 49
Political Record: MEP for East of England 2015-
Likely to Stand: 85%
For: Knows how to work the media, kept his distance from Farage without being seen as an opponent,
Against: Ridiculed over his idea of a turnover tax, a little uncharismatic, would be seen as UKIP’s John Major to Farage’s Thatcher
Verdict: A serious candidate
Odds: 8/1

SUZANNE EVANS
Age: Unknown
Political Record: Former Merton councillor, Parliamentary candidate in Shrewsbury & Atcham 2015, Former UKIP Communities Spokesman, now Deputy Chairman
Likely to Stand: 70%
For: UKIP’s best media performer behind Farage, seen as the thinking person’s UKIP leadership probable, on the party’s sensible wing, one of the party’s few thinkers
Against: Maybe too Tory for the party’s northern powerbase for 2020, non-elected status may be a disadvantage
Verdict: If the party want someone who’s the opposite to Farage in almost every way, Suzanne Evans should win. But her lack of elected status may count her out.
Odds: 10/1

PAUL NUTTALL
Age: 38
Political Record: MEP for the North West of England since 2009, Deputy Leader of UKIP since 2010.
Likely to Stand: 100%
For: Authentic northern voice and perspective, effective media performer, appeal to Labour voters, built a powerful election machine in the north with an eye to 2020
Against: Hasn’t built the national profile he ought to have given his position as Farage’s deputy, not tested under fire
Verdict: Given the fact that UKIP is likely to come second to Labour in most of their northern stronghholds, and become the main opposition to Labour, Paul Nuttall will be a very strong candidate, but how genuinly popular is he within the party? Does he have enough supporters in the right places?
Odds: 6/1

DOUGLAS CARSWELL
Age: 43
Political Record: MP for Clacton since 2005
Likely to Stand: 20%
For: Clever, knows his own mind, willing to think the unthinkable, knows his own weaknesses and abilities
Against: Doesn’t want the job, odd appearance, would lack the support of Faragistas
Verdict: Unlikely to stand and would hate the job. But he may be UKIP’s only MP and may come under a lot of pressure.
Odds: 25/1

DIANE JAMES
Age: 55
Political Record: Fought Easleigh by-election, MEP for South East England 2014-,
Likely to Stand: 25%
For: Seen as a good media performer, fought a good by-election, like Suzanne Evans she’s seen as the acceptable face of UKIP
Against: Carer for an ill relative it may come at the wrong time for her, slightly chippy and doesn’t suffer fools gladly
Verdict: She’s almost ruled herself out of a contest but left herself some wriggle room in a recent interview. She needs to develop some charisma and smile more if she is to win people to her cause.
Odds: 33/1

STEVEN WOOLFE
Age: 48
Political Record: MEP for the North West since 2014, candidate in Stockport
Likely to Stand: 50%
For: Bright, personable, not afraid to disagree publicly with Nigel Farage, good speaker
Against: Slightly inexperienced, only been involved with the party for five years, seen as a moderniser
Verdict: Could pitch himself as the David Cameron of UKIP i.e. a moderniser who would ditch the party’s authoritarian right tendencies. Could be a dark horse.
Odds: 25/1

CONCLUSION

In some ways none of these candidates can ever match up to the charisma of Nigel Farage – all could pitch themselved as an antidote to what came before. Each is likely to be more inclusive and less dictatorial. Who will win? It’s very hard to say. Paul Nuttall ought to be the favourite, but in theory any of the others could overtake him. I’ve always rated Suzanne Evans and Diane James, but could they command the grassroots support to mount a serious challenge to Nuttall? Patrick O’Flynn has had a huge amount of publicity in the last eighteen months but hasn’t captured many UKIP hearts, and in the end that counts for a lot.

If it were me, I’d go for Suzanne Evans.