General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 58: Kent

Seats: 17
Current Political Makeup: Con 17
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 17

1. Ashford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29878 (54.1%)
Labour: 9204 (16.7%)
Lib Dem: 12581 (22.8%)
Green: 1014 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2508 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 17297 (31.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Damian Green 30,094 52.5 −1.7
UKIP Gerald O’Brien 10,798 18.8 +14.3
Labour Brendan Chilton 10,580 18.4 +1.8
Liberal Democrat Debbie Enever 3,433 6.0 -16.8
Green Mandy Rossi 2,467 4.3 +2.5
Majority 19,296 33.6
Turnout 57,372 67.3

Leave Vote: 59.9%

Sitting MP: Damian Green (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Canterbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22050 (44.8%)
Labour: 7940 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 16002 (32.5%)
Green: 1137 (2.3%)
UKIP: 1907 (3.9%)
Others: 173 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6048 (12.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Brazier²⁰ 22,918 42.9 -1.9
Labour Hugh Lanning²⁰ 13,120 24.5 +8.4
UKIP Jim Gascoyne²⁰ 7,289 13.6 +9.8
Liberal Democrat James Flanagan²⁰ 6,227 11.6 -20.9
Green Stuart Jeffery²¹ 3,746 7.0 +4.7
Socialist (GB) Robert Cox²² 165 0.3 +0.3
Majority 9,798 18.3 -1.9
Turnout 53,465 64.0 +0.1

Sitting MP: Julian Brazier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Chatham & Aylesford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20230 (46.2%)
Labour: 14161 (32.3%)
Lib Dem: 5832 (13.3%)
BNP: 1365 (3.1%)
Green: 396 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1314 (3%)
English Dem: 400 (0.9%)
Christian: 109 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6069 (13.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tracey Crouch ⁷ 21,614 50.2 +4.0
Labour Tristan Osborne 10,159 23.6 −8.7
UKIP Ian Wallace⁸ 8,581 19.9 +16.9
Liberal Democrat Thomas Quinton 1,360 3.2 −10.2
Green Luke Balnave 1,101 2.6 +1.7
Christian Peoples John-Wesley Gibson⁹ 133 0.3 N/A
TUSC Ivor Riddell 125 0.3 N/A
Majority 11,455 26.6
Turnout 43,073 62.8

Leave Vote: 63.9%

Sitting MP: Tracey Crouch (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Dartford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24428 (48.8%)
Labour: 13800 (27.6%)
Lib Dem: 7361 (14.7%)
UKIP: 1842 (3.7%)
English Dem: 2178 (4.3%)
Independent: 264 (0.5%)
Others: 207 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10628 (21.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gareth Johnson⁸ 25,670 49.0 +0.2
Labour Simon Thomson⁸ 13,325 25.4 −2.1
UKIP Elizabeth Jones 10,434 19.9 +16.2
Liberal Democrat Simon Beard⁹ 1,454 2.8 −11.9
Green Andy Blatchford 1,324 2.5 N/A
English Democrat Steve Uncles 211 0.4 −3.9
Majority 12,345 23.6 +2.4
Turnout 52,418 68.4 +2.7

Leave Vote: 64%

Sitting MP: Gareth Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Dover

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22174 (44%)
Labour: 16900 (33.5%)
Lib Dem: 7962 (15.8%)
BNP: 1104 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1747 (3.5%)
English Dem: 216 (0.4%)
Independent: 82 (0.2%)
Others: 200 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5274 (10.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Charlie Elphicke 21,737 43.3 -0.7
Labour Clair Hawkins 15,443 30.7 -2.8
UKIP David Little 10,177 20.3 +16.8
Liberal Democrat Sarah Smith 1,572 3.1 -12.7
Green Jolyon Trimingham¹³ 1,295 2.6 N/A
Majority 6,294 12.5 +2.0
Turnout 50,224 68.9 -1.2

Leave Vote: 63%

Sitting MP: Charlie Elphicke (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Faversham & Mid Kent

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26250 (56.2%)
Labour: 7748 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 9162 (19.6%)
Green: 890 (1.9%)
UKIP: 1722 (3.7%)
Others: 940 (2%)
MAJORITY: 17088 (36.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Helen Whately⁶ 24,895 54.4 −1.8
UKIP Peter Edwards-Daem 8,243 18.0 +14.3
Labour Michael Desmond 7,403 16.2 −0.4
Liberal Democrat David S. Naghi 3,039 6.6 −13.1
Green Tim Valentine 1,768 3.9 +2.0
Monster Raving Loony Hairy Knorm Davidson⁷ 297 0.6 −0.2
English Democrat Gary Butler[citation needed] 158 0.3
Majority 16,652 36.4 −0.2
Turnout 45,803 65.9 −1.9

Leave Vote: 58.7%

Sitting MP: Helen Whately (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Folkestone & Hythe

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26109 (49.4%)
Labour: 5719 (10.8%)
Lib Dem: 15987 (30.3%)
BNP: 1662 (3.1%)
Green: 637 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2439 (4.6%)
Independent: 247 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10122 (19.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Damian Collins 26,323 47.9 −1.6
UKIP Harriet Yeo⁷ 12,526 22.8 +18.2
Labour Claire Jeffrey⁸ 7,939 14.4 +3.6
Liberal Democrat Lynne Beaumont⁹ 4,882 8.9 −21.4
Green Martin Whybrow¹⁰ 2,956 5.4 +4.2
TUSC Seth Cruse 244 0.4 N/A
YPP Rohen Kapur¹¹ 72 0.1 N/A
Socialist (GB) Andy Thomas ¹² 68 0.1 N/A
Majority 13,797 25.1 +5.9
Turnout 55,010 65.8 −1.9

Leave Vote: 61.6%

Sitting MP: Damian Collins (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Gillingham & Rainham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21624 (46.2%)
Labour: 12944 (27.7%)
Lib Dem: 8484 (18.1%)
BNP: 1149 (2.5%)
Green: 356 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1515 (3.2%)
English Dem: 464 (1%)
Others: 250 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 8680 (18.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Rehman Chishti 22,590 48.0 +1.8
Labour Paul Clark 12,060 25.6 -2.1
UKIP Mark Hanson 9,199 19.5 +16.3
Liberal Democrat Paul Chaplin⁶ 1,707 3.6 -14.5
Green Neil Williams 1,133 2.4 +1.6
TUSC Jacqui Berry⁷ 273 0.6 N/A
Independent Roger Peacock 72 0.1 N/A
Independent Mike Walters 44 0.1 N/A
Majority 10,530 22.4 +3.8
Turnout 47,078 64.8 -1.2

Leave Vote: 64.2%

Sitting MP: Rehman Chishti (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Gravesham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22956 (48.5%)
Labour: 13644 (28.8%)
Lib Dem: 6293 (13.3%)
Green: 675 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2265 (4.8%)
English Dem: 1005 (2.1%)
Independent: 465 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9312 (19.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Adam Holloway 23,484 46.8 −1.7
Labour Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi⁵ 15,114 30.1 +1.3
UKIP Sean Marriott 9,306 18.6 +13.8
Green Mark Lindop 1,124 2.2 +0.8
Liberal Democrat Anne-Marie Bunting 1,111 2.2 −11.1
Majority 8,370 16.7 -3.0
Turnout 50,139 67.5 +0.1

Leave Vote: 63.4%

Sitting MP: Adam Holloway (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Maidstone & The Weald

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23491 (48%)
Labour: 4769 (9.7%)
Lib Dem: 17602 (36%)
Green: 655 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1637 (3.3%)
Christian: 131 (0.3%)
Others: 643 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 5889 (12%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Helen Grant 22,745 45.5 −2.9
Liberal Democrat Jasper Gerard 12,036 24.1 −11.9
UKIP Eddie Powell 7,930 15.9 +12.5
Labour Allen Simpson 5,268 10.5 +0.8
Green Hannah Patton 1,396 2.8 +1.5
National Health Action Paul Hobday 583 1.2 N/A
Independent Robin Kinrade 52 0.1 N/A
Majority 10,709 21.4
Turnout 50,010 68.3 −0.6

Sitting MP: Helen Grant (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Rochester & Strood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23604 (49.2%)
Labour: 13651 (28.5%)
Lib Dem: 7800 (16.3%)
Green: 734 (1.5%)
English Dem: 2182 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 9953 (20.7%)

BY ELECTION NOV 2014
UKIP: 16,867 (42.1%)
Conservative: 13,947 (34.8%)
Labour 6,713: (16.8%)
Green 1,692: (4.2%)
LibDem 349: (0.9%
Others 497: (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 2,920 (7.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kelly Tolhurst 23,142 44.1 -5.1
UKIP Mark Reckless 16,009 30.5 N/A
Labour Naushabah Khan 10,396 19.8 −8.7
Green Clive Gregory 1,516 2.9 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Prue Bray 1,251 2.4 −13.9
TUSC Dan Burn 202 0.4 N/A
Majority 7,133 13.6
Turnout 52,516 66.5

Leave Vote: 55.9%

Sitting MP: Kelly Tolhurst (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. North Thanet

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22826 (52.7%)
Labour: 9298 (21.5%)
Lib Dem: 8400 (19.4%)
UKIP: 2819 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 13528 (31.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Roger Gale 23,045 49.0 −3.7
UKIP Piers Wauchope⁸ 12,097 25.7 +19.2
Labour Frances Rehal 8,411 17.9 −3.6
Green Edward Targett 1,719 3.7 +3.7
Liberal Democrat George Cunningham 1,645 3.5 −15.9
Majority 10,948 23.3
Turnout 47,053 70.1% +6.9

Leave Vote: 65.2%

Sitting MP: Sir Roger Gale (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

13. Sevenoaks

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28076 (56.8%)
Labour: 6541 (13.2%)
Lib Dem: 10561 (21.4%)
BNP: 1384 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1782 (3.6%)
English Dem: 806 (1.6%)
Independent: 258 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 17515 (35.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Michael Fallon 28,531 56.9 +0.1
UKIP Steve Lindsay¹² 8,970 17.9 +14.3
Labour Chris Clark 6,448 12.9 −0.4
Liberal Democrat Alan Bullion 3,937 7.9 −13.5
Green Amelie Boleyn 2,238 4.5 +4.5
Majority 19,561 39.0
Turnout 50,124 70.9

Leave Vote: 54.1%

Sitting MP: Michael Fallon (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

14. Sittingbourne & Sheppey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24313 (50%)
Labour: 11930 (24.6%)
Lib Dem: 7943 (16.4%)
BNP: 1305 (2.7%)
UKIP: 2610 (5.4%)
Independent: 158 (0.3%)
Others: 319 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12383 (25.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gordon Henderson 24,425 49.5 -0.6
UKIP Richard Palmer⁶ 12,257 24.8 +19.4
Labour Guy Nicholson 9,673 19.6 -5.0
Liberal Democrat Keith Nevols 1,563 3.2 -13.2
Green Gary Miller 1,185 2.4 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Mad Mike Young 275 0.6 -0.1
Majority 12,168 24.6 -0.9
Turnout 49,378 65.0 +0.5

Leave Vote: 65.4%

Sitting MP: Gordon Henderson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

15. South Thanet

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22043 (48%)
Labour: 14426 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 6935 (15.1%)
UKIP: 2529 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 7617 (16.6%)

2015 Result
Conservative Craig Mackinlay 18,838 38.1 −9.9
UKIP Nigel Farage 16,026 32.4 +26.9
Labour Will Scobie 11,740 23.8 −7.6
Green Ian Driver 1,076 2.2 N/A
Liberal Democrat Russell Timpson 932 1.9 −13.2
FUKP description1 Al Murray 318 0.6 N/A
Manston Airport Independent Ruth Bailey 191 0.4 N/A
We Are The Reality Party Nigel Askew 126 0.3 N/A
Party for a United Thanet Grahame Birchall 63 0.1 N/A
Independent Dean McCastree 61 0.1 N/A
Al-Zebabist Nation of Ooog Robert Abu-Obadiah 30 0.05 N/A
Majority 2,812 5.7 −10.9
Turnout 49,401 70.4 +5.1

Leave Vote: 61.7%

Sitting MP: Craig Mackinlay (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

16. Tonbridge & Malling

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29723 (57.9%)
Labour: 6476 (12.6%)
Lib Dem: 11545 (22.5%)
Green: 764 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1911 (3.7%)
English Dem: 390 (0.8%)
Others: 505 (1%)
MAJORITY: 18178 (35.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tom Tugendhat⁶ 31,887 59.4 +1.5
UKIP Robert Izzard⁷ 8,153 15.2 +11.5
Labour Claire Leigh⁸ 7,604 14.2 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Mary Varrall⁹ 3,660 6.8 −15.7
Green Howard Porter 2,366 4.4 +2.9
Majority 23,734 44.2
Turnout 53,670 73.8 +2.3

Sitting MP: Tom Tugendhat (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

17. Tunbridge Wells

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28302 (56.2%)
Labour: 5448 (10.8%)
Lib Dem: 12726 (25.3%)
BNP: 704 (1.4%)
Green: 914 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2054 (4.1%)
Independent: 172 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 15576 (31%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Greg Clark 30,181 58.7 +2.4
Labour Kevin Kerrigan 7,307 14.2 +3.4
UKIP Colin Nicholson⁶ 6,481 12.6 +8.5
Liberal Democrat James McCleary⁷⁸ 4,342 8.4 −16.8
Green Marie Jones 2,659 5.2 +3.4
Independent Graham Naismith⁹ 458 0.9 +0.9
Majority 22,874 44.5 +13.5
Turnout 51,428 70.0 +0.2

Leave Vote: 44.6%

Sitting MP: Greg Clark (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

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