I never fail to understand why politicians can’t be honest about election results. Tell it like it is and you cannot fail to gain the respect of those who are watching you.

 

Watching the TV this morning you’d think that the LibDems had, at worst, held steady. So far they have lost more than 200 councillors and been eradicated from several councils where they had a strong presence.

 

Tony Blair describes Labour’s performance as a “springboard to an election victory”. Well, if you’re doing a bellyflop off the springboard, he might be right. In Wales, Labour got their lowest vote share since 1918. In Scotland they have been beaten by a resurgent SNP. In England they will have lost more than 400 councillors by the end of the afternoon. It’s a disastrous day for Labour.  But what of David Cameron’s Tories.

 

You’ll be expecting me to say it’s been a triumphant 24 hours for the Conservatives and I won’t disappoint you. Before the elections the BBC was saying that the Tories would need to get 40% of the vote to have a good night. They are now describing 41% as “a slight disappointment”. Before tonight Labour was spinning that the Tories would need to get more than 600 gains to have had a good night. It looks as if it will be closer to 700. Labour and the LibDems were trying to assert that the Conservatives had no presence in the north, yet it’s transpired that a quarter of the Tory gains were in northern council seats. The Tories control more councils in the North West than Labour. They are represented on more councils in the north than either Labour or the LibDems. And yet, and yet… the BBC and Sky keep trotting out this old canard that the Tories are not doing well in the north. Let me give some more details…

 

  • The Conservatives now control more councils in both the North West and Yorkshire than Labour do. The Tories gained South Ribble, East Riding of Yorkshire and Chester and now control 20 councils in the North.

    Councils the Tories have gained:
    * East Riding for the first time ever, making 13 gains and taking the Lib Dem and Labour leaders’ seats.
    * South Ribble for the first time since 1995, gaining 24 seats.
    * Chester for the first time since 1986, gaining 7 seats.

* Blackpool for the first time for years

* Gains in 16 other councils in the north: Barrow-in-Furness, Blackburn with Darwen, Bolton, Bury, Chorley, Crewe and Nantwich, Eden, Ellesmere Port and Neston, Macclesfield, Oldham, Pendle, Preston, Salford, Sunderland, West Lancashire and Wigan.

 

Today there have been far more –indeed, too many to mention without boring you. But it’s not actually the northern results which I find the most significant.

 

Over the last year David Cameron has been ‘love-bombing’ LibDem voters. It has paid off beyond his wildest dreams in many places - Bournemouth, Torbay, South Norfolk experiencing particular huge swings. The LibDems are in retreat from the Conservatives. No one pretends that the Tories will win back every seat they’ve lost to the yellow peril over the years, but the yellow tide has turned. Make no mistake. 

 

For those who think that Cameron’s performance isn’t good enough, let me advise them to study the 1995 local election results. Labour’s gains were, I believe, lower than the Tory gains today. And the lead in the share of the vote was exactly the same. The only difference was that in 1995 the Tory share of the vote was rather higher than Labour’s pathetic 26% showing today.

 

Tony Blair was right. This is indeed a springboard for a general election. But for David Cameron, not Gordon Brown.