In 2015 I got 8 out of my 10 predictions right. Seeing as 2016 turned out to be the year of the unexpected, I don’t think I’ve done quite as well. Here were my predictions for 2016, made on 31 December 2015…

  1. The EU Referendum will be held in July. WRONG (but only by 7 days!)
  2. The ‘Stay’ Campaign will prevail, but by a margin of 55-45 or less. WRONG
  3. Nigel Farage will not be UKIP leader by the end of 2016. CORRECT
  4. Labour will experience a net loss of council seats in May. WRONG (net gain of +46)
  5. Donald Trump will not be the Republican Candidate for President. WRONG
  6. In terms of seats and/or vote share Labour will come third in the Scottish Parliamentary elections. CORRECT
  7. Arsenal will win the Premier League. WRONG
  8. Philip Hammond will not be Foreign Secretary by the end of the year. CORRECT
  9. The LibDems are all but wiped out in the GLA, Welsh Assembly & Scottish Parliament elections, retaining less than half of their existing 12 seats in the three bodies. CORRECT
  10. Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull calls an early election and wins an increased majority. HALF CORRECT

So a miserable 4 and a half out of 10. My worst ever. I’ll post my predictions for 2017 before the end of the year. For what they’re worth, which isn’t much!