The announcement of the closure in 2021 of the Honda plant in Swindon is a disaster for the town. More than 3,000 people will lose their jobs and no doubt that figure will increase in the wider area through the supply chain. 

Honda

Honda has this morning been explaining why they are doing this. If you have been on Twitter in the last 24 hours you will no doubt have been convinced that the plant closure is a result of Brexit. People who know nothing about the automotive sector or Honda as a company have been claiming as fact that it is either entirely or mostly due to Brexit. 

This is a now a trend. Anything negative that happens to our economy is down to Brexit and anything good that happens is despite Brexit or because we haven't left yet. You can't have it both ways.

I don't deny that Brexit uncertainty is gradually having a more negative effect on the economy. Investment decisions are being postponed and delayed, and possibly, if it goes on much longer, even cancelled. I think supply chain concerns in some sectors in the event of 'no deal' are a real concern, so no one should class me as someone who thinks everything will be alright on the night and I'm some sort of starry eyed economic illiterate who thinks that come 29 March the land will be flowing with milk and honey. I've said repeatedly that I believe there will be short term difficulties, but that in the long term there are many prizes to be had. 

But nor do I believe we're going to hell in a handcart and I remain suspicious of anyone who seeks to blame Brexit for any economic woe we experience. Bear in mind that overall our economy has been very relisient over the last year - surprisingly resilient in many ways. The employment figures out today demonstrate that economic expansion continues apace. Wage growth is healthier than it has been for years, with wages growing at 3.4% and inflation at 1.8%. Our growth figures are not brilliant at between 1 and 2% but when you look a what is forecast for Germany and other EU countries this year we're not doing badly.

But let's go back to Honda, because the lies being told about why Honda is shutting down its Swindon plant have to be seen to be believed. Let's just start with what Honda themselves have said today...

Ian Howells, senior vice-president for Honda in Europe, told the Today Programme...

We're seeing unprecedented change in the industry on a global scale. We have to move very swiftly to electrification of our vehicles because of demand of our customers and legislation. This is not a Brexit-related issue for us, it's being made on the global-related changes I've spoken about. We've always seen Brexit as something we'll get through, but these changes globally are something we will have to respond to. We deeply regret the impact it will have on the Swindon community.

At the same time Honda announced it was also closing its Civic plant in Turkey, but that its European HQ will remain in the UK. 

Takahiro Hachigo, Honda’s chief executive, said at a news conference in Tokyo this morning...

This decision is not related to Brexit.

Are Remainer politicians accusing him of lying?

It is clear that Japanese car manufacturers are now consolidating all their production in Japan. There are two main reasons for this. Firstly the state of the diesel car market in the EU, in which sales have halved in the last two years. This is down to new legislation and the fact that EU governments have made clear that they want to ban diesel cars within the next 15-20 years. Secondly, the new EU/Japan trade deal means that cars manufactured in Japan can be sold within the EU with no tariffs. There are other factors for these decisions too, but these are the two main ones, and if you don't believe me just read any economic commentary from people who know the sector.

Today I read about a luxury women's health spa in Belgravia which charges its members £5,500 a year in membership fees. It has closed and the owners have blamed Brexit. Now I don't know much about women's luxury spas, but I do know that it is impossible to blame Brexit in any way for the closure of a business like that. Blaming Brexit for any business's ills is easy. It usually masks management or corporate failure on an industrial scale. 

Brexit

Look at FlyBMI, for example. It's failure at the end of last week was immediately attributed to Brexit. People ignored all the industry experts who pointed out that it had been a basket case of a business for years and had been making huge financial losses for a very long time. it had long been a headache to its various parent companies. It was in trouble way before the referendum was even thought of. Think on this. Its average number of passengers per flight was 18. That wasn't Brexit's fault. It was the fault of a company that wasn't able to market itself or find the right business model. 

I come back to what I said before. I don't deny that increasing uncertainty about Brexit will have an increasingly negative effect on investment decisions. And that is why a 'People's Vote' would make things even worse, because it would mean the uncertainty would continue into 2020 and maybe even beyond. 

Business doesn't like uncertainty. Any fool knows that and that is why it is so important that we leave the EU as planned on March 29th. It is a terrible indictment on our politicians both here and in Brussels that they have not so far organised a smooth, orderly Brexit. There are many reasons for this, but the time for political games is surely over. Well, you'd like to think so. But there's a part of me that thinks we ain't seen nothing yet.

I suspect the games are only just beginning.