In the annual list of the 100 most influential people on the left or right of British politics, we nearly put someone we do not know the identity of at number 2 in both lists. We will call him Deep Moat - the Whitehall whistleblower who shook British politics to its foundations by leaking the entire database of MPs expense claims, published by the Telegraph. It was quite tempting to put Deep Moat in at number one, but temptation was resisted.
Of course anything can happen in politics and there is still sometime before the next general election, but the election is now for the Conservatives to lose. David Cameron was having a pretty good year as leader and as prospective prime minister, then the expenses scandal turned a pretty good year into the year before he will become Prime Minister. Cameron remains at number one because of what he made of the opportunity offered him.
Overall, Conservative MPs produced some of the worst stories from the expenses scandal and it came close to Cameron’s team, Andrew Mackay, 29 in last year’s list, was the most high profile victim, but the mud did not stick in quite the same way to them as it has done to the Labour government. Cameron was rock solid in his response – quick off the mark, tough in dealing with offenders in his own party and consistent in articulating what people felt about the scandal. Admittedly, a scandal like this is easier to deal with in opposition but it could easily have been fluffed and thereby allowed Labour back into the game. The left’s only other route back, the economy, has also provided fertile ground for Cameron. His tougher stance at PMQs and stubborn battles on the “cuts” front, have rounded out an outstanding year as Prime Minister designate.
The story in the rest of the shadow cabinet, Conservative party and broader right of British politics is more mixed. There has been relative stability in the top 25 but significant numbers of MPs have slipped down and this was often because of the need for a period of quiet on their part induced by the expenses scandal. There are also seven new entries into the top 25. The nearness of a return to power explains the rise of some of these new entries. Kenneth Clarke pushed his way into the top 25 because of his dogged fight against Peter Mandelson. Eric Pickles and Theresa May climb the rankings for similar reasons – they add the weight of experience to the attack. It is likely that a Cameron cabinet will include a good proportion of former Minsters and many more experienced hands are coming back in to front line politics now that power is clearly within the Conservative Party’s grasp. However, though Cameron has been good at wielding the axe when needed, as Alan Duncan recently found out, much of the top ten stay put, continuing to present a unified team. Then, upsetting the carefully constructed image, in bounced Dan Hannan, coming up from 86 to number 10.
The right of the Conservative Party found a voice in Hannan. He has navigated the path between understanding the need for discipline with the desire to speak his mind and thereby transformed his own position in the party. There is a tipping point in opposition politics when surety of victory invites a return to the politics of the base. Hannan seems to have decided that moment has come and that the Cameroonies needed reminding that they are leading the Conservative Party and not New Labour Mark 2. In many ways it was, as the public expenditure debate has already shown, an unnecessary message. Cameron’s team have been balancing appeals to the centre and even the left with a fiscally conservative spin which appeals to the base and the alliances in the European Parliament have also reassured. But in giving a voice to some misgivings about the New Conservative project, as well as articulating a radical view of localism in the co-authored study, The Plan and laying into the NHS, Hannan has also become the face of the right. He is unlikely to be there next year, assuming a government is formed, but on his performance this year he has earned this high place.
Another maverick entry, for his contribution to the unsettling of Number Ten alone, is Guido Fawkes, up 50 places. Again he is unlikely to be here next year, unless the scoops keep coming, but his role in the McBride email scandal is worthy of this high placing. It was one of the biggest political stories of the year and it was broken on a blog.
Whilst a significant number of middle ranking MPs have slipped back over the year, a couple have bucked this trend. Damian Green has continued his steady climb towards the top 30. He had a good expenses crisis and with the lifting of the investigation into leaks on immigration, has had more time for politics, his trajectory towards a big job in the government continues. However, the real star this year, rising 80 places to 10, is Philip Hammond, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury and a key player in the public expenditure battle with the government. While the Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne concentrates more on general political strategy, it has been Hammond who has been taking the fight to the government on the deficit. The political strategy work that Osborne has been doing is set to continue after the election, with stories of a joint administration or west wing style office combining the staffs of the Chancellor and PM. Though this might not survive the actual transition, the core of Osborne’s team will be central to implementing the project and they make a joint entry at number 40 – Matthew Hancock, Rupert Harrison and Rohan Silva are set to play key roles in government and will play a vital part in the general election campaign.
Financing the general election campaign, especially the period before the campaign proper when there are no restrictions on spending, will not be cheap. Government has a built in advantage in terms of the pre-election period. The £2.5 million recently given to the Conservative Party by city sources should even the playing field considerably. The donation included £1m from property tycoon David Rowland, a high new entry, who returned to live in the UK to make the donation and has promised more substantial donations in the future. While the money obviously matters and gives Rowland the power to influence, this is not the time for an overly gentle tone with the City. A £1m donation to the party on the threshold of power does not buy what it did in the 1990s.
By the time we compile the next list there will have been a general election. Amongst the candidates who might be returned for the Conservatives, one of the most impressive, Priti Patel makes an entrance at 76. She is contesting a new Essex seat with a notional conservative majority of around 7,000 and is expected to be a leading member of the new in-take. If Patel will be a star of the mainstream, New Conservatives, and set to rise through the ranks, Dan Hannan’s co-author of The Plan - a radical blueprint for the next Conservative government - Douglas Carswell, may well come to enjoy the role of leading radical in the next Conservative government or be tamed by office. His articulation of the new localism and his position in the House of Commons, mean he may well eclipse his co-author in the near future.
All of the future cabinet and most of the future ministers in the next Conservative government, are contained in this list. Many of the future special advisers and the think tankers, donors and campaigners who will shape the administration are here. But there are two names that might surprise you and give a clue as to way in which the old linear political spectrum, statism on the left, free market on the right, has been disrupted over the last decades. Peter Mandelson (19) and Andrew Adonis (81), both Ministers in this Labour government, are also architects and supporters of policy positions that will be central to Cameron’s government. Mandelson, as business secretary has pursued business friendly policies and he might also succeed in shifting Labour back towards the fiscal centre giving the Conservatives an easier task in power. Adonis created the academy schools and Michael Gove’s bold education policy for parental control in schooling would build on this Blairite legacy. In both cases the policies they advocate would sit as much at home in a right of centre government as they do in a left of centre one, thus they qualify for both lists. The godfather of New Labour, Lord Mandelson, therefore sits in what are likely to be the last Telegraph political lists of the Labour government, the most influential player on the left and in the top 20 on the right. It’s hard to think of a better epitaph for age of Blair.
1.(-) DAVID CAMERON
Leader of the Conservative Party
Last year we said about David Cameron that “the proof of his influence will be his ability to weather the storms of the next six months.” Rarely has there been a more resilient politician in British politics. Whenever he gets a political knockback, he just gets up, dusts himself down and moves on. The consistent opinion poll leads of more than 15% are in no small part down to Cameron personally.
2. (+1) GEORGE OSBORNE
Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer
George Osborne is definitely the ‘Cameron was run over by a bus’ candidate, but this is both a strength and a weakness. Amiable, clever and sociable, he has now developed a reputation as a brilliant political tactician. His task now is to develop a reputation for economic competence and gravitas. His friendship and influence with David Cameron is as great as it ever was despite one or two vain attempts to drive a wedge between them.
3. (+2) ANDY COULSON
Director of Communications, Conservative Party
The former editor of the News of the World was said to be shocked by what he found when he started his new job last summer. Since then he has overhauled the Conservative communications machine to very good effect. The success of the 2007 conference was in large part down to his strategic thinking and staging. Trusted and respected by the whole Shadow Cabinet he has been the first Conservative Party Director of Communications in years who hasn’t suffered a briefing campaign against him.
4. (-) LORD ASHCROFT
Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party
Michael Ashcroft is the real power behind the Conservative election machine. His team of election strategists, led by Stephen Gilbert (see No 26), have funneled money into the 150 or so target seats and now reside in Conservative Campaign Headquarters itself. Ashcroft makes no attempt to influence policy, but his military-style election battleplans have struck fear into many a candidate and MP.
5. (-3) BORIS JOHNSON
Mayor of London
Many Conservatives doubted Boris Johnson’s desire or ability to beat Ken Livingstone – the doubters included himself. People underestimate Boris Johnson’s drive and ambition. Now he has the chance to prove the doubters wrong for a second time. He is without doubt the most powerful Conservative in Britain. We did debate whether he should be at the very top of this list, but power is different from influence. But there is little doubt that if his mayoralty is a success he will be play a very influential role in the next Conservative government.
6. (-) STEVE HILTON
Director of Strategy, Conservative Party
Often seen as a Svengali type figure who lurks in the shadows, Steve Hilton is not another Peter Mandelson. It is he who persuaded Cameron to adopt a green agenda and to put forward an agenda for social justice. He has a different agenda and style to the newly appointed Andy Coulson, who is more sympathetic to traditional Conservative policies. Pundits speculated that the two wouldn’t be able to work together, but they have been proved wrong. Hilton’s departure for California has not seen his influence diminish at all.
7. (-) WILLIAM HAGUE
Shadow Foreign Secretary
The de facto Deputy Leader of the Party, it took all David Cameron’s negotiating skills to persuade a reluctant William Hague back to the Shadow Cabinet table. Hague is one of the few outside his close knit circle of advisers Cameron listens to. There is still a feeling that Hague would much prefer a life of writing books and would happily leave frontline politics altogether if the chance arose.
8. (-) MICHAEL GOVE
Shadow Secretary of State for Children, Schools & Families
Michael Gove was always going to be the star of the 2005 intake of Tory MPs. His rise to the Shadow Cabinet has been both eminently predictable and effortless. Seen as one of Cameron’s closest confidantes, he’s as locked into the ‘project’ as George Osborne is, and only marginally less influential. An aggressive proponent of positive intervention in foreign conflicts, Gove will be one of the four major players in a Cameron Cabinet.
9. (+1) EDWARD LLEWELLYN
Chief of Staff to David Cameron
A close friend of Cameron since their days at Eton and Oxford, Llewellyn also worked with him in the Conservative Research Department in the early 1990s. He then worked as an adviser to Chris Patten in Hong Kong, before taking up a position with Paddy Ashdown in the Balkans. His role is the lynchpin of Cameron’s private office. He’s not merely a gatekeeper, he is a key influence on Cameron, particularly on foreign policy.
10. (+76) DANIEL HANNAN
Conservative MEP, Columnist & Blogger
Fiercely Eurosceptic, Hannan has established a powerful brand for himself, not just through his actions in the European Parliament but through his columns and, more latterly, his impressive blog [ADD LINK].
11. (+6) SAMANTHA CAMERON
Wife of the Leader of the Conservative Party
Initially, we debated whether Samantha Cameron belonged on this list, but being able to whisper sweet nothings into the Leader of the Opposition each night by definition makes her a person of influence on the leading man in this list. Over the last twelve months she has started to emerge from her shell, and although she is not a deeply political figure, several instances have been catalogued where she has prevented her husband from making a mistake.
12. (-3) MICHAEL SPENCER
Conservative Party Treasurer
The Managing Director of ICAP and owner of the spreadbetting company City Index, Michael Spencer funded David Cameron’s leadership campaign and even provided him with a helicopter.
He took over from Jonathan (now Lord) Marland as Party Treasurer and was tasked with raising an election war chest. His influence in city circles has made that an easier task than it might have been for others.
13. (-1) MARGARET THATCHER
Former Prime Minister
It is a measure of her success as Prime Minister that Lady Thatcher’s influence on both the left and right of British politics are still felt seventeen years after her overthrow. Without her Tony Blair would never have been possible and yet with her constantly there in the background the Conservatives have still not really come to terms with her legacy. It still pervades everything they do.
14. (+82) PHILIP HAMMOND
Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Hammond has shone in his current job, after a relatively anonymous period at Work & Pensions. His business background has helped him become a key part of George Osborne’s treasury team and he has become an adept media performer. His capacity to find savings in public spending could well determine the fate of Cameron’s whole government.
15. (+21) ERIC PICKLES
Chairman of the Conservative Party
The rise of Chairman Pickles continues apace. He is one of politics’ great survivors and is hugely polpular with party activists. He has overseen two famous by election victories in Crewe and Norwich North and is tasked with putting the whole party into an election winning mode. The question now is this: which job does Cameron give him after the election?
16. (-1) LIAM FOX
Shadow Secretary of State for Defence
Fox emerged from the 2005 leadership campaign with his reputation enhanced, but didn’t feel that the job he was offered by David Cameron reflected his new stature. Since then he has come to terms with political realities and emerged the stronger for it. Some doubt whether Defence is really the ideal job for him, but his previous doubts about the Cameron project have been overcome and he has become one of the party’s strongest media performers.
17. (+28) KENNETH CLARKE
Former Chancellor of the Exchequer
18. NEW PETER MANDELSON
19. (-). OLIVER LETWIN
Head of Policy, Conservative Party
Oliver Letwin is more of an academic than a politician. He has a brain the size of David Willets’ but so far a deft political touch has eluded him. He’s currently charged with writing the next Conservative manifesto and is certainly one of David Cameron’s inner circle, but he has been diminished by the reaction to several of the policy commissions who have proposed wacky policies which have no chance whatsoever of being adopted. Letwin should have strangled these ideas at birth. His public profile is diminishing and is rarely let loose on the nation’s airwaves nowadays.
20. (+1) TIM MONTGOMERIE
Editor, ConservativeHome.com
ConservativeHome styles itself as the home of the Tory grassroots. It started life during the Tory leadership election and hasn’t looked back. Tim Montgomerie can pick up the phone to anyone in the party and they will take the call. Montgomerie’s high ranking on this list is testament to the growing influence of the internet in politics.
21. (+2) IAIN DUNCAN SMITH
Former Leader of the Conservative Party
IDS has slowly resurrected his reputation since his fall from the leadership and has become the party’s conscience on social justice. His Social Justice Commission policy report was by far the most comprehensive of the six commissions launched by David Cameron when he became leader. His Centre for Social Justice has become a leader in its field. His conference speech last year cemented his affections in the voluntary party, who still feel a little guilty about what happened to him.
22. (-6) FRANCIS MAUDE
Shadow Minister for the Cabinet Office
There were those who thought that when he was removed from the Party Chairmanship Francis Maude’s political career was drawing to an unremarkable close. Far from it. He has relished his new job as “enforcer”, a role in which he is tasked with ensuring that his colleagues are ready for government. Much of his work is behind the scenes chivvying and progress chasing, but if the Conservatives are to avoid the mistakes of Tony Blair’s first term, Maude’s job is one of the most vital in the Shadow Cabinet.
23. (-5) PATRICK McLOUGHLIN
Conservative Party Chief Whip
It’s often said that nice guys don’t become chief whip, but Patrick McLoughlin is the exception who proves the rule. Having spent many years as Deputy Chief Whip he knows what the top job demands and he has become a powerful and respected figure in the Parliamentary Party. There are few people in politics whose job fits them like a hand in a glove, but McLoughlin is one of them.
24. (+53) THERESA MAY
Shadow Leader of the House of Commons
One of the great survivors of modern politics, Theresa May is enjoying her role shadowing Harriet Harman. She is the best known female face (with the best known feet) on the Tory front bench, which insulates against those who don’t ‘get’ her.
25. (+8) JEREMY HUNT
Shadow Secretary of State for Culture Media & Sport
Regarded as perhaps the nicest MP of the 2005 intake, he has been promoted quickly and in July 2007 joined the Shadow Cabinet. He succeeded Virginia Bottomley in a highly marginal seat but beat off the LibDems by playing them at their own game. Hunt is seen by some as a potential future leader if he can develop a slightly harder political edge. He is the second highest climber in this year’s list.
26. (-12) CHRIS GRAYLING
Shadow Secretary of State for Work & Pensions
Chris Grayling has become known as the Shadow Cabinet’s 'attack dog', for his rare ability to get under the skin of the Labour Party. He more than anyone has taken the battle to the government, especially in the area of sleaze and the conduct of government. Grayling is even being talked about as a future leader by some, even though he has less hair than William Hague.
27. (+27) DAMIAN GREEN
Shadow Minister for Immigration
As chairman of the Tory Reform Group Damian Green is thought to be on the left of the party, yet he was a leading backer of David Davis (right to the bitter end) in the 2005 leadership contest. His career came to a stall under Michael Howard but his thoughtful and non aggressive approach to the immigration brief has won him plaudits. In the last year he has scored more media hits than any other middle ranking Shadow Minister.
28. (-17) ANDREW FELDMAN
Deputy Treasurer of the Conservative Party
Feldman is one of David Cameron's close personal friends from his university days, and was treasurer of his leadership campaign. He has made his own fortune through his family clothing firm, Jayroma. He organises the ‘Leaders Group' of party donors, who pay £50,000 to join. Earlier this year he was appointed to become Chief Executive of the Conservative Party, and now runs Conservative Campaign Headquarters alongside Party Chairman Caroline Spelman, in what some see as an uneasy alliance. Feldman is this list’s highest climber.
29. (-4) DOMINIC GRIEVE
Shadow Home Secretary
Last year we said that “if there was any justice in politics Dominic Grieve would have been promoted to the Shadow Cabinet long ago”. Well now he has. Grieve is still viewed with suspicion by many in the Cameron circle. He will use the coming party conference to set out his values.
30. (+1) DAVID DAVIS
Former Shadow Home Secretary
If this were a list of Top Influencers in the Debate on Civil Liberties Davis would come second only to Shami Chakrabarti of Liberty. But it isn’t. When he resigned from the Shadow Cabinet and Parliament Davis’s influence on the Tory Party inevitably took a nosedive. He will continue to be courted by the media – who will sniff out any sign of criticism of the party leadership – but his future role remains a subject for conjecture in Tory circles, a sign of that even now he has a degree of continuing influence.
31. (+7) MATTHEW ELLIOTT
Director, The Taxpayers’ Alliance
The Taxpayers’ Alliance goes from strength to strength and retains a remarkable ability to garner column inches. In a short time the Taxpayer’s Alliance has proved itself to be a hugely effective pressure group for lower taxes and the abolition of government waste. At a time when the Conservative Party appears to have moved away from a low tax agenda, Matthew Elliott is making sure the arguments for lower taxes are heard through a mix of hard hitting reports and superbly directed research.
32. (+12) ANDREW LANSLEY
Shadow Secretary of State for Health
Said to be a favourite of the Tory leader, Lansley was Cameron’s boss in the Conservative Research Department in the early 1990s. Oliver Letwin tried to persuade him to stand for the leadership in 2005. Despite one or two gaffes in the last twelve months, Lansley is the only Shadow Cabinet Member to be told definitively that he will retain the same job in government.
33. (+4) GREG CLARK
Shadow Charities Minister
A former director of the Conservative Research Department, Greg Clark is one of the most impressive of the 2005 intake of Conservative MPs. He is the highest new entry in this list and it is only a matter of time before he joins the Shadow Cabinet.
34. (+51) GUIDO FAWKES
Blogger: www.order-order.com
The notorious Guido Fawkes blog is written by the libertarian inclined Paul Staines. Having made his money in the City he spends his day blogging about politics and pulling politicians down a peg or two. His blog attracts nearly half a million readers a month and is read by a large proportion of MPs and the Westminster Village.
35. (-7) THOMAS STRATHCLYDE
Leader of the Conservatives in the House of Lords
The ebullient Lord Strathclyde is a hugely popular figure and has steadied the uncertain ship left behind by Lord Cranborne (now Salisbury) when he struck a deal with Tony Blair over Lords reform. Strathclyde has managed to keep their Lordships on an even keel when the rest of the Party entered into its periodic bouts of internecine warfare.
36. (-14) CHARLES MOORE
Chairman, Policy Exchange & Biographer of Lady Thatcher
The former Telegraph editor is now chairman of Policy Exchange, the most influential think tank on the right. Currently writing Margaret Thatcher’s official biography his writings demonstrate an independence of thought which stops him from being pigeon-holed as a Cameronista or a Cameron critic.
37. (-24) SIR SIMON MILTON
Deputy Mayor of London
Sir Simon Milton was the long serving leader of Westminster City Council and then moved onto the national stage by taking on the chairmanship of the LGA. He resigned that position in July 2008 to become Boris Johnson’s principal Deputy Mayor. Boris may be the front man but rest assured that Sir Simon Milton will be running the show behind the scenes.
38. (-14) NICK HERBERT
Shadow Secretary of State for Justice
One of the brightest thinkers of the 2005 intake of Tory MPs, Nick Herbert has taken on one of the most demanding roles in the Shadow Cabinet. Having run David Davis’s leadership campaign in 2001 and been a key player in 2005, Herbert has - rather surprisingly for many - bought into the Cameron agenda with relative ease.
39. NEW MATTHEW HANCOCK, ROWAN SILVA & RUPERT HARRISON
Advisers to George Osborne
40. (+17) NICHOLAS BOLES
Conservative Candidate for Grantham
Nicholas Boles made his name as Director of the influential think tank, Policy Exchange. He wanted to run for Mayor of London, but had to withdraw due to a cancer scare, which he has now fully recovered from. Selected to fight the safe Tory seat of Grantham in 2007, he is now a key adviser to Francis Maude on how to implement a Tory manifesto in government.
41. (+46) NIGEL FARAGE MEP
Leader, United Kingdom Independence Party
UKIP has made no headway in the last twelve months despite the valiant efforts of its leader. Farage presides over a party riven by splits and plots and his frustration at his amateurish colleagues is said to be showing. An excellent media performer, the UKIP leader attracts huge jealousies from his rivals within the party. Next year’s Euro elections will be a key indicator of how he is performing.
42. (-) MICHAEL HINTZE
Party Donor
Australian born Michael Hintze is a highly successful hedge fund manager and philanthropist. His influence relates to the causes which he funds. He was the first to out himself as someone who had loaned the Conservative Party money during the last election.
43. (+6) JILL KIRBY
Director, Centre for Policy Studies
Jill Kirby has added a new dash to the Centre for Policy Studies. A specialist in family policy, she has laid on a series of seminars attended by several leading Shadow Cabinet members and David Cameron himself. The CPS is now back where it should be – at the forefront of right of centre policy formation.
44. (+11) JAMES O'SHAUGHNESSY
Director of Policy & Research, Conservative Party
Appointed to succeed George Bridges at Conservative Campaign Headquarters, O'Shaughnessy was formerly a leading light at Policy Exchange, the right's most influential think tank. He has transformed what remains of the Conservative Research Department and is highly thought of among the Shadow Cabinet.
45. (+3) JOHN REDWOOD
Conservative MP for Wokingham
John Redwood has had a renaissance. His Economic Competitiveness Report was a model of its kind and Redwood’s blog (johnredwoodsdiary.com) has attracted a large and influential readership. There are many who think Cameron could do worse than make Redwood Chief Secretary to the Treasury if he is serious about cutting public spending.
46. (+1) LORD HARRIS OF PECKHAM
Party Donor
After Cameron endorsed his City Academies Philip Harris become a major funder of David Cameron’s leadership campaign, giving £90,000. He promised to raise £100 million for the party if Cameron became leader but Party treasurers are (still) wondering when they will see it. He made his money from his carpets empire and is said to be worth nearly £1 billion.
47. NEW DAVID ROWLAND
48. (-22) STEPHEN GILBERT
Director, Target Seats Campaign
A former Chief Executive of the Party, Gilbert is now Michael Ashcroft’s right hand man in planning and delivering the Tories’ campaign in the marginal seats. Party agents were delighted when he returned to Central Office to direct the general election effort, along with another party stalwart, Gavin Barwell. Gilbert knows everyone there is to know in the party, hence his influence.
49. (-22) ROBERT EDMISTON
Conservative Party donor
A Christian evangelist, Robert Edmiston raised huge amounts of money for the Conservative Party through the Midlands Industrial Council. He made his money importing cars and is a keen funder of Solihull City Academy.
Proposed for a Peerage in 2006, he was turned down by the Lords Appointments Commission.
50. (+16) 66. KIT MALTHOUSE
Deputy Mayor of London
Kit Malthouse is an investment banker who was elected in May to the Greater London Assembly. He was subsequently made Deputy Mayor with responsibility for the Metropolitan Police by Boris Johnson. He had been a Westminster City Councillor from 1998 to 2006.
51. NEW MICHAEL FALLON
52. (+1) ANDREW HALDENBY
Director, Reform
Haldenby set up Reform with Nick Herbet in 2001, having run the abortive David Davis leadership campaign. Reform is unashamedly free market and small government and has found the Cameron regime less to its liking than its predecessors. However, the Tories are at last listening to Reform’s radical ideas on a small state agenda and public service reform.
53. (-21) STEPHAN SHAKESPEARE
Founder, YouGov
Shakespeare was the party’s pollster under Iain Duncan Smith and is the owner of ConservativeHome and the new political website PoliticsHome. A one time Tory candidate (in 1997) he’s recently been asked by the party to chair candidate selection meetings.
54. (-14) ANTHONY BROWNE
Director of Policy for the Mayor of London
An ex-BBC and Times journalist Anthony Browne took over the directorship of Policy Exchange founder Nicholas Boles in May 2007 – a very tough act to follow. He had a difficult year in the job and was headhunted by Boris Johnson in the summer. A radical thinker, he’s not afraid to voice unpopular views.
55. NEW PHILIP BLOND
56. (+4) ED VAIZEY
Shadow Minister for Culture, Media & Sport
A former barrister and lobbyist, Ed Vaizey is one of the Tory front bench’s most effective media performers. One of the few Tories to speak ‘normal’ on the media, Vaizey is heavily tipped for promotion. He is said to love his current role, but presumably wouldn’t say ‘no’ to a eg up the ‘greasy pole’.
57. (+4) ANNABEL GOLDIE
Leader of the Scottish Conservative Party
Annabel Goldie won a lot of praise for her conduct of the 2007 Scottish Parliament election campaign, displaying superb debating skills and a dry wit, and 2008 has been a very good year for her too. Since the SNP takeover in Edinburgh Goldie has skillfully led the Conservatives in the role of being a ‘constructive’ opposition. She has eclipsed the Scottish Labour Party and LibDems and is seen very much by Alex Salmond as the real leader of the opposition.
58. (+31) CAROLINE SPELMAN
Shadow Secretary of State for Local Government & Communities
Last year we said Caroline Spelman needed to carve out a higher media profile. Unfortunately this has been achieved in a way she would not have wanted. The last few months have been dominated by headlines about her expenses, which has meant that her influence within the Party has been adversely affected as people await the outcome of the Standards Commissioners’ investigations. We look forward to a steep rise next year, following her complete acquittal.
59. NEW DOUGLAS CARSWELL
60. (-19) STUART POLAK
Director, Conservative Friends of Israel
CFI has established itself as a highly effective lobby group. Polak regularly takes leading Conservatives on trips to Israel to educate them. The sceptics invariably return, if not indoctrinated, fully onside. A familiar face around the corridors of the Houses of Parliament, he has done more than most to promote Israel’s case to the right of British politics.
61. NEW ARMINCA HELIC
Special Advisor to William Hague
62. NEW PETER DAVIES
Mayor of Doncaster
63. (+8) DESMOND SWAYNE
Conservative MP for New Forest West
Desmond Swayne is one of the few MPs to have served in Iraq, but he appears on this list due to his job as PPS to David Cameron. Swayne is far from the typical parliamentary bag carrier and reports to Cameron on the concerns of Conservative MPs. Over the last twelve months he has cemented his position as one of Cameron’s chief advisers.
64. (-) PAULINE NEVILLE-JONES
Shadow Minister for Homeland Security
Baroness Neville-Jones enjoyed a distinguished career in the Diplomatic Service and also spent a year as Chairman of Joint Intelligence Committee. After her retirement she was recruited by David Cameron to replace Patrick Mercer as Shadow Homeland Security Minister. She has a fearsome reputation and many Tory MPs are said to find her rather intimidating – possibly because she reminds them of Judy Dench in the James Bond films.
65. (-13) DAVID WILLETTS
Shadow Secretary of State for Innovations, Universities & Skills
David Willett’s influence has been on the wane ever since the Tory leadership campaign where he lost credibility with both the Davis and Cameron camps for trying to defect and then changing his mind. Since then, some of his colleagues think he has lost interest in frontline politics. If so, he will be a loss to the Conservative Party who need to find a niche for one of their brightest and most original thinkers.
66. (-20) JOHN MAPLES MP
Deputy Chairman (Candidates), Conservative Party
Whoever is in charge of party candidates has not only influence but power – power to break political careers and promote individual candidates. Maples operates in a quiet, discrete way, but is adamant on continuing the drive to select more female candidates. He inherited
67. (+21) MARGARET EATON
Chairman, Local Government Association
Margaret Eaton has been the Leader of Bradford City Council for eight years and as chairman of the Conservative Councillors Association is undoubtedly the most influential female Conservative in local government. Her prominence saw her appointed chairman of the Local Government Association in August this year, succeeding Sir Simon Milton.
68. (+6) JUSTINE GREENING
Shadow Treasury Minister
Since her election to Parliament in 2005, Justine Greening has impressed her colleagues and opponents. She has acquired a high media profile and shone in her new job in the Treasury team. She is heavily tipped for promotion to the Shadow Cabinet, but she tells friends that it’s too early for her.
69. (-7) ANDREW MITCHELL
Shadow Secretary of State for International Development
When David Davis left the Shadow Cabinet some thought his main ally and former campaign manager might be left exposed, but Andrew Mitchell has almost made International Development his own subject, and developed a good reputation among the NGOs.
70. (-35) DOUGLAS HURD
Former Foreign Secretary
Lord Hurd’s steady stream of books (the latest a biography of Peel) keep him in the limelight, but his influence is mainly on David Cameron who he advises behind the scenes on foreign affairs. He is part of a group of ‘wise men’ who meet monthly with Cameron to discuss international issues.
71. (-32) DAVID TRIMBLE
Former First Minister of Northern Ireland
When Lord Trimble took the Conservative whip last year many people assumed he would be appointed to the front bench almost immediately. Instead he has taken his time to learn the ropes. He played a key role in the merger negotiations between the Ulster Unionists and the Conservatives. He is tipped to be a member of a Cameron Cabinet.
72. (-2) JESSE NORMAN
Conservative Candidate for Hereford
Jesse Norman is one of the leading new genre of thinkers in the Conservative Party and his writings give some philosophical ballast to David Cameron’s policy agenda. A leading light in Policy Exchange, he is now concentrating on winning back the marginal seat of Hereford from the Liberal Democrats. If he succeeds, bet on him joining the Shadow Cabinet within three years.
73. (-22) NICK BOURNE
Leader, Welsh Assembly Conservatives
Bourne’s pro-devolution stance does not go down well with every Welsh Conservative, but he’s successfully steered them through some turbulent times. He has come out in favour of more powers for the Welsh Assembly, demonstrating once again that he’s not afraid to speak his mind. Cameron is expecting Wales to provide a dozen Conservative MPs at the next election, so Bourne has his work cut out.
74. (-1) NEIL O’BRIEN
Director, Policy Exchange
O’Brien made his reputation at the leading Eurosceptic pressure group and think tank Open Europe. A few weeks ago he was appointed director of Policy Exchange. He’s by no means seen as a natural Cameroon so it will be interesting to see if he takes the organization in a slightly different direction to that of his predecessor Anthony Browne.
75. NEW PRITI PATEL
76. (-9) SHIREEN RITCHIE
Chairman, Conservative Party Candidates Committee
The grande dame of Kensington & Chelsea Conservatives, Shireen Ritchie chairs one of the most powerful Tory Party committees which determines who is allowed to be a Conservative Party candidate. She’s also Madonna’s mother-in-law.
77. (-2) SAYEEDA WARSI
Shadow Minister for Community Cohesion
Warsi's appointment to the Shadow Cabinet caused a few convulsions among the rank and file. Her remarks about freedom fighters and terrorists after 7/7 were not well received. However, she has won many over by a series of accomplished performances on Question Time and a commitment to reviving Conservative fortunes in the inner cities. Her trip to the Sudan with Wahid Ali to free a British school teacher won her many friends.
78. (+2) SIR JOHN MAJOR
Prime Minister 1990-97
Sir John has avoided the mistakes of his predecessors and only comments on current affairs when he has an important point to make. This means that he is listened to very closely. Behind the scenes he is an important source of confidential advice for David Cameron.
79. NEW ANDREW TYRIE
Conservative MP for Chichester
79. (-1) PETER ROBINSON
First Minister of Northern Ireland
Having succeeded Ian Paisley in June, Robinson knows he has a tough act to follow. More urbane and mainstream than his predecessor, he is not helped in his job by the increasingly bizarre comments on social issues made by his wife Iris.
80. NEW LORD ADONIS
Secretary of State for Transport
81. (-2) MARGOT JAMES
Vice Chairman of the Conservative Party (Women)
Margot James made her fortune in health public relations before embarking on a political career. A prominent ‘A' Lister she is now the party's candidate in Stourbridge and was appointed by David Cameron as Vice Chairman of the Party with the task of reaching out to the female vote. Described as the best looking woman in Tory politics, James will be an important Tory voice if she wins her marginal seat.
82. (+12) PHILIPPA STROUD
Conservative Candidate for Sutton & Cheam
Philippa Stroud is the driving force behind Iain Duncan Smith’s Centre for Social Justice and authored much of his Commission’s report on social justice, Breakdown Britain.
83. (-) LORD TEBBIT
Former Conservative Cabinet Minister
Norman Tebbit still has the knack of getting to the nub of an issue with a soundbite designed to cause maximum effect. As a consequence, whenever the Tories run into trouble, Tebbit is on hand to add a piquant quote or two. He falls this year due to his tendency to become Mr Rent-a-Quote.
84 NEW ANDREY TYRIE
Conservative MP for Chichester
85. NEW RORY STEWART
Writer, Diplomat & Academic
86. NEW MICHAEL HOWARD
Former Conservative Party Leader
87. (+8) SHAUN BAILEY
Conservative Candidate for Hammersmith
Co-founder of the charity My Generation, Bailey has established himself as a key adviser to the Conservatives on social justice, educational underachievement and fighting inner city crime. If he’s elected at the next election expect him to rise fast.
88. (-6) STEPHEN GREENHALGH
Leader, London Borough of Hammersmith & Fulham
Greenhalgh led Hammersmith & Fulham to a storming victory in 2007 on a manifesto of cuts in council tax, waste and some services. Since then many other councils have taken careful note of how they did it. He has also lost no time in implementing this radical manifesto.
89. (+10) NADINE DORRIES
Conservative MP for Mid Bedfordshire
Nadine Dorries is perhaps the highest profile MP of the 2005 intake. In part because of her campaigning on abortion term limits and in part because of her controversial blog she attracts great admiration and jealousy in equal measures.
90. NEW Jeremy Middleton
Chairman, National Conservative Convention
91. (-12) GILLIAN SHEPHARD
Chairman, Association of Conservative Peers
Baroness Shephard has established herself as a key mover and shaker in the House of Lords. As Chairman of the Association of Conservative Peers - in other words, their shop steward - she provides an astute early warning system to the party leadership. There are those who suggest that if Lord Strathclyde were to fall on his sword, Lady Shephard would be an extremely popular replacement.
92. NEW KIRSTIE ALLSOP
Television Personality
93. NEW GRANT SHAPPS
Conservative Spokesman on Housing
94. (+4) OWEN PATERSON
Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
Many eyebrows were raised when David Cameron promoted Paterson, IDS’s former PPS, to the top table, but it has proven to be a shrewd move. The recently announced merger between the Conservatives and the Ulster Unionists is in large part down to Paterson’s quiet, behind the scenes negotiations.
95. NEW TIMOTHY KIRKHOPE
Leader of Conservative MEPs
96. NEW SARAH WOLLASTON
Conservative Candidate for Totnes
97. NEW ANYA HINDMARCH
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98. NEW CHLOE SMITH
99. NEW JOHN BERCOW
Speaker of the House of Commons
100. (-28) DON PORTER
President, Conservative Party National Convention
A self made millionaire, Don Porter is the effective head of the voluntary part of the Conservative Party. He’s been careful to steer clear of factions and is regarded as a wise old owl figure, as well as liked by politicians and volunteers alike. He has a rare ability to pour oil on troubled waters. He finishes his term of office in March, hence his fall in this year’s list.
