Over the next couple of weeks I’m going to look at a few post-election scenarios in terms of possible cabinet line-ups and who might stand in any of the various leadership contests the election result might throw up. I’ve already covered…
Who would be in a Cameron Cabinet?
Who will succeed Nick Clegg?
Let’s look at who will be in a Miliband Cabinet if Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister. I’m going to compile it on the premise that Miliband is running either a majority or minority administration, with no coalition partner. The first thing to say is that Ed Miliband has far more room for manouevre than any of his Labour predecessors, all of whom under Labour Party rules were obliged to appoint their entire Shadow Cabinet to become Cabinet Ministers. Tony Blair finessed this rule slightly, but his first Cabinet was almost entirely made of of his previous Shadow Cabinet. Ed Miliband managed to persuade his colleagues and party to abandon this rule so he has a completely free hand. In theory. In practice, if he doesn’t win an outright majority his hands will be somewhat tied.
Ed Miliband has three key decisions to make. Does he make Harriet Harman Deputy Prime Minister or not, does he keep Ed Balls as Chancellor, and who to appoint as Foreign Secretary in the event of Douglas Alexander losing his seat? These three decisions could well define his premiership.
If Harriet Harman doesn’t get the job Gordon Brown so famously denied her, there will be tears at bedtime. I can’t imagine she could accept another job, unless it was Fotreign Secretary. If Ed Miliband leads a minority government I predict he will indeed appoint Harriet as Deputy Prime Minister. If he has a majority I think he may feel feel strong enough to decide not to and appoint a Labour elder statesman like Alan Johnson to the role. Similarly, Ed Balls will retain his Treasury role in a minority administration. The only way he would lose it is if Labour went into coalition with the LibDems and Vince Cable laid claim to the role. The appointment of Foreign Secretary is trickier. If Douglas Alexander loses his seat it’s actually quite difficult to see who would be nominated for the role. Could it be Ed Balls? It would kill two birds with one stone, I suppose.
Ed Miliband is perfectly able to wield a knife. Although I expect most of his cabinet appointments to replicate his existing shadow cabinet, he will be keen to promote one or two loyalists. Emma Reynolds may be one, Lucy Powell another. And will he find room for Liz Kendall? Or possibly even Tom Watson…
So, here goes…
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Ed Balls
Deputy Prime Minister: Harriet Harman
Foreign Secretary: Yvette Cooper
Home Secretary: Alan Johnson
Business Secretary: Chuka Umunna
Education Secretary: Tristram Hunt
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Chris Leslie
Work & Pensions Secretary: Rachel Reeves
Transport Secretary: Michael Dugher
Leader of the House of Commons: Angela Eagle
Defence Secretary: Vernon Coaker
Justice Secretary: Sadiq Khan
Energy & Climate Change Secretary: Caroline Flint
Culture Secretary: Gloria de Piero
Health Secretary: Andy Burnham
Local Government & Communities Secretary: Hilary Benn
International Development: Mary Creagh
Leader of the House of Lords: Peter Hain
Minister for the Cabinet Office: Lord Stewart Wood
Chief Whip: Rosie Winterton
Defra Secretary: Maria Eagle
Scottish Secretary: Whichever Labour MP is left
Welsh Secretary: Owen Smith
Northern Ireland Secretary: Ivan Lewis
Part of me thinks Ed Miliband will be rather more daring than that and take a few risks. He may also bring back one or two more greybeards to give the cabinet some experience and ballast. Alan Johnson and Peter Hain are the two most likely but there could be a couple of others.
