George W Bush’s greatest political asset was that his opponents, especially in Europe, continually underestimated him. Nigel Farage enjoys the same advantage. His enemies view him as a spiv who, in the end, will be found out. It’s very lazy thinking.
The news that Farage has had dinner with Rupert Murdoch is a clear sign that Ukip and its leader have climbed the next step on the political path to respectability and to being taken seriously. Next stop, brunch with Alan Rusbridger. Or possibly not.
Farage is one of the wiliest tacticians in modern-day politics. He has almost single-handedly transformed a rag, tag and bobtail party into an effective political campaigning force. Slowly but surely, it is losing the image of being the BNP in blazers, full of older men who were disgusted and hailed from Tunbridge Wells. It now has the largest and most active youth movement in British politics, and it is slowly but surely becoming feminised. Its last two byelection candidates have been very impressive women, who should now be taking on a much wider role in the party.
Farage has enemies – many of whom have been fellow MEPs who have defected. Today’s Guardian contains allegations of financial impropriety by former Ukip MEPs Nikki Sinclaire and Marta Andreasen. I suspect Farage will dismiss them with a wave of the hand and without further thought.
Politicians on the left and right don’t seem to understand that Ukip is on the march. Eastleigh was no one-off. They are the new Liberal Democrats, in that they have become the dustbin of British politics. By that I mean that they are now receiving the protest votes that used to go to the Lib Dems. Labour and the Lib Dems continue to assume that Ukip supporters are almost always disaffected Conservatives. That has never been true, and Lord Ashcroft’s post-Eastleigh poll proved it. If Ukip can mobilise the anti-politics vote that seems to be growing every day it could make very fast progress indeed. I have no hesitation in predicting that it will come at least second in the 2014 European elections, and there’s a distinct possibility that it could even top the poll.
But that is more than a year away. Between now and then, Nigel Farage needs to achieve several things. He needs to encourage the media to interview Ukip representatives other than himself. He should make his Eastleigh candidate, Diane James, deputy party leader. A full slate of county council candidates needs to be fielded, and they need to poll well, and finally he needs to ensure that his party’s European candidate selection procedures are overhauled to ensure that the number of flaky candidates is reduced next time out.
One thing is sure. If Farage screws up in any way at all, he will be jumped on by the media. He and his party are about to be scrutinised like never before. He needs to make a gradual transformation from the bloke in the pub that’s the life and soul of the party to become a wise old owl who people feel they can trust. No one is suggesting that Ukip can become a party of government, but it needs to start looking like a party which can be trusted with the levers of power. The media will then take it more seriously, broadcasters will give it more airtime, and in 10 years’ time, who knows?
_*This article originally appeared on Comment is Free
