Over the next two weeks I will be trying to predict the results of the European Elections which take place in the UK on May 22, with the results being announced late in the evening of Sunday 25 May. I will be hosting a European Elections Special Programme on LBC from 9pm that evening. Let’s now turn to the East Midands, where 5 seats are up for grabs. The constituency corresponds to the East Midlands region of England, comprising the counties of Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Rutland, Northamptonshire and the non-Metropolitan county of Lincolnshire. The constituency was organized as a result of the European Parliamentary Elections Act 1999, replacing a number of single-member constituencies. These were Leicester, Northamptonshire and Blaby, Nottingham and Leicestershire North West, Nottinghamshire North and Chesterfield, and parts of Lincolnshire and Humberside South, Peak District, and Staffordshire East and Derby.
2009
Con 2
UKIP 1
Lab 1
LibDem 1
In 2004 the result was Con 2, UKIP 2, LibDem 1, Labour 1. In 1999 it was Con 3 Lab 2, LibDem 1 (the constituency had six members in 1999 and 2004).
My prediction for this year is this…
2014
Con 2
Lab 1
UKIP 2
The East Midlands is a very difficult constituency to call. Both the LibDem sitting MEP Bill Newton Dunn, and the sitting UKIP member Roger Helmer started out as Conservatives. Helmer will certainly be re-elected but it is doubtful Newton Dunn will hold on, having just scraped in last time with only 12.5% of the vote. The question is whether that will be enough to give UKIP or Labour a second seat. UKIP will certainly gain a second seat if the Tory vote drops much anyway.
Predicted Winning Candidates
Conservative Party – Emma McClarkin, Andrew Lewer
UKIP – Roger Helmer, Margot Parker
Labour – Glenis Wilmott
OTHER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS
