Over the next two weeks I will be trying to predict the results of the European Elections which take place in the UK on May 22, with the results being announced late in the evening of Sunday 25 May. I will be hosting a European Elections Special Programme on LBC from 9pm that evening. Let’s now turn to the West Midands, where 7 seats are up for grabs. The constituency corresponds to the West Midlands region of England, comprising the ceremonial counties of Herefordshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, West Midlands and Worcestershire. It was formed as a result of the European Parliamentary Elections Act 1999, replacing a number of single-member constituencies. These were Birmingham East, Birmingham West, Coventry and North Warwickshire, Herefordshire and Shropshire, Worcestershire and South Warwickshire, and parts of Peak District, Staffordshire East and Derby, and Staffordshire West and Congleton.
2009
Con 3
UKIP 2
Lab 1
LibDem 1
In 2004 the result was Con 3, Lab 2, UKIP 1, LibDem 1. In 1999 it was Con 4, Lab 3, LibDem 1 (the constituency had eight members then).
My prediction for this year is this…
2014
Con 2
Lab 2
UKIP 3
The West Midlands will be a very interesting result partly because both of UKIP’s existing MEPs defected. I doubt whether that will have any impact on the result, though. Labour really need to gain an extra seat here if they are to have any momentum in the runup to the general election. If they do, it will be filled by Sion Simon. The BNP scored 8.5% last time but much of that vote will evaporate this time. The Tory vote is bound to decline too, so it is likely they will lose a seat. This constituency gained an extra seat after the signing of the Lisbon treaty, which Anthea Mcintyre filled.
Predicted Winning Candidates
Conservative Party – Philip Bradbourn, Anthea Mcintyre
UKIP – Jill Seymour, James Carver, Bill Etheridge
Labour – Neena Gill, Sion Simon
OTHER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS
