Over the next few days I will be completing my predictions of the results of the European Elections which take place in the UK on May 22, with the results being announced late in the evening of Sunday 25 May. I will be hosting a European Elections Special Programme on LBC from 9pm that evening. Let’s now turn to Scotland, where 6 seats are up for grabs.
2009
SNP 2
Lab 2
LibDem 1
Con 1
In 2004 the result the Conservatives had 2, Labour 2, LibDem 1 and the SNP 2 (there were 7 seats then). In 1999, when there were 8 seats for Scotland, Labour had 3, the SNP 2, the Tories 2 and the LibDems 1.
My prediction for this year is this…
2014
SNP 3
Lab 2
Con 1
All my contacts tells me that LibDem support in Scotland has totally collapsed. Given the voting system any LibDem collapse could benefit the Conservatives. Either the SNP or Labour will get three seats. It’s possible that unlikely that either the Greens or UKIP could overtake the LibDems and grab a seat, but UKIP don’t poll well in Scotland so I don’t expect that to happen. Last time the SNP jumped from 19% to 29% share of the vote. They only need to gain a couple of per centage points to grab that third seat, and I expect them to do that. Labour’s vote continues to decline in Scotland. In the last three Euro elections it’s gone from 29% to 26% to 20%. We hear a lot about the disastrous Tory performance in Scotland but in the last Euro elections they were only 4% behind Labour. However, the Tory vote is bound to decline further this time. It’s possible they could lose their one remaining seat, I suppose, but I think they will just about hang on.
Predicted Winning Candidates
Conservative Party – Ian Duncan
SNP – Ian Hudghton, Alyn Smith, Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh
Labour Party – David Martin, Catherine Stihler
OTHER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS
East Anglia
South East
London
South West
West Midlands
East Midlands
North West
North East
