Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

CORNWALL

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 3, LibDem 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6
Final Prediction: Con 5, LibDem 1

1. Camborne & Redruth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15969 (37.6%)
Labour: 6945 (16.3%)
Lib Dem: 15903 (37.4%)
Green: 581 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2152 (5.1%)
Others: 943 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 66 (0.2%

Sitting MP: George Eustice (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A rematch between current MP George Eustice and former LibDem MP Julia Goldsworthy. This could turn out to be a three way marginal if the LibDem vote collapses to Labour and the Tory vote collapses to UKIP. But you have to say if Julia Goldsworthy couldn’t hold this in a good year for the LibDems, can she really win it back in May? I doubt it.

2. North Cornwall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19531 (41.7%)
Labour: 1971 (4.2%)
Lib Dem: 22512 (48.1%)
UKIP: 2300 (4.9%)
Others: 530 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 2981 (6.4%)

Sitting MP: Dan Rogerson (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A seat where the LibDem majority has been on the slide in every election since 1997’s highpoint of more than 13,000. If UKIP hadn’t existed, the Conservatives would have won this seat in 2010. So the key question is whether they will eat further into the Conservative vote in 2015. If so, the LibDems will hang on. Otherwise this is a pretty safe bet for the Tories. UPDATE: Lord Ashcroft shows that UKIP could scupper the Tories here. However, in the latest constituency poll the UKIP vote is being squeezed somewhat, and although the LibDems are one point ahead, a strong ground war should see the Tories home. This one, in reality, though, could go either way.

3. St Austell & Newquay

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18877 (40%)
Labour: 3386 (7.2%)
Lib Dem: 20189 (42.7%)
BNP: 1022 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1757 (3.7%)
Others: 2007 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 1312 (2.8%)

Sitting MP: Stephen Gilbert (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat could go either way. Labour are nowhere with only 7% of the vote. If UKIP does well in the South West, the LibDems win here, if they don’t, they won’t.

4. St Ives

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17900 (39%)
Labour: 3751 (8.2%)
Lib Dem: 19619 (42.7%)
Green: 1308 (2.8%)
UKIP: 2560 (5.6%)
Others: 783 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1719 (3.7%)

Sitting MP: Andrew George (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Updated Prediction: LibDem hold

The Tories got a 10.39% swing last time and took a huge chuck out of Andrew George’s 11,000 majority. This time George will be hoping UKIP’s vote reduces Tory potency. His incumbency and local popularity could see Andrew George home, but I now think the Tories may make it. UPDATE: The latest Lord Ashcroft poll shows Andrew George with a three point lead. The UKIP vote here has fallen to 11%. Andrew George has a strong reputation here. I suspect that might allow him to pull through, unless the Tories can eat further into the UKIP vote.

5. South East Cornwall

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22390 (45.1%)
Labour: 3507 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 19170 (38.6%)
Green: 826 (1.7%)
UKIP: 3083 (6.2%)
Others: 641 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 3220 (6.5%)

Sitting MP: Sheryll Murray (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

The LibDems lost this seat last time after holding it for three terms and will be looking to win it back. The only way they can do that is if UKIP bites into the Tory vote in quite a substantial way and the LibDem vote holds up better than most expect. Will be tight but Sheryll Murray should win the day.

6. Truro & Falmouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20349 (41.7%)
Labour: 4697 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 19914 (40.8%)
Green: 858 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1911 (3.9%)
Others: 1039 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 435 (0.9%)

Sitting MP: Sarah Newton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Too tight to call really but if the trend of LibDem votes going back to Labour continues, Sarah Newton should hold on.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE