General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 69. Tyne & Wear

TYNE & WEAR

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Lab 12
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Lab 12

1. *Blaydon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7159 (15.9%)
Labour: 22297 (49.6%)
Lib Dem: 13180 (29.3%)
BNP: 2277 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 9117 (20.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Dave Anderson 22,090 49.2 -0.5
UKIP Mark Bell 7,863 17.5 +17.5
Conservative Alison Griffiths 7,838 17.4 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Wallace 5,497 12.2 -17.1
Green Paul McNally⁵ 1,648 3.7 +3.7
Majority 14,227 31.7 +11.4
Turnout 44,936 66.4 +0.2

Leave Vote: 56.1%

Sitting MP: David Anderson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Gateshead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5716 (14.9%)
Labour: 20712 (54.1%)
Lib Dem: 8163 (21.3%)
BNP: 1787 (4.7%)
Green: 379 (1%)
UKIP: 1103 (2.9%)
Christian: 131 (0.3%)
TUSC: 266 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12549 (32.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Mearns 21,549 56.8 +2.6
UKIP John Tennant 6,765 17.8 +14.9
Conservative Thomas Smith 5,502 14.5 −0.4
Liberal Democrat Frank Hindle 2,585 6.8 −14.5
Green Andy Redfern⁵ 1,548 4.1 +3.1
Majority 14,784 39.0 +6.2
Turnout 40,451 59.4 +1.9

Leave Vote: 56.2%

Sitting MP: Ian Mearns (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Houghton & Sunderland South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8147 (21.4%)
Labour: 19137 (50.3%)
Lib Dem: 5292 (13.9%)
BNP: 1961 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1022 (2.7%)
Independent: 2462 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 10990 (28.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Bridget Phillipson 21,218 55.1 +4.8
UKIP Richard Elvin 8,280 21.5 +18.8
Conservative Stewart Hay⁷ 7,105 18.5 -2.9
Green Alan Robinson 1,095 2.8 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Jim Murray⁸ 791 2.1 -11.8
Majority 12,938 33.6
Turnout 38,489 56.3

Leave Vote: 64.5%

Sitting MP: Bridget Phillipson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Jarrow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8002 (20.6%)
Labour: 20910 (53.9%)
Lib Dem: 7163 (18.5%)
BNP: 2709 (7%)
MAJORITY: 12908 (33.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Stephen Hepburn 21,464 55.7 +1.7
UKIP Steve Harrison⁵ 7,583 19.7 +19.7
Conservative Nick Mason 6,584 17.1 -3.6
Green David Herbert⁶ 1,310 3.4 +3.4
Liberal Democrat Stan Collins⁷ 1,238 3.2 -15.3
TUSC Norman Hall⁸ 385 1.0 +1.0
Majority 13,881 36.0 +2.7
Turnout 38,564 60.4 +0.1

Leave Vote: 61.8%

Sitting MP: Stephen Hepburn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Newcastle upon Tyne Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6611 (19.4%)
Labour: 15694 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 8228 (24.1%)
BNP: 2302 (6.7%)
Green: 568 (1.7%)
UKIP: 754 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 7466 (21.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chi Onwurah 19,301 55.0 +9.1
Conservative Simon Kitchen⁸ 6,628 18.9 -0.5
UKIP Daniel Thompson⁹ 5,214 14.9 +12.7
Liberal Democrat Nick Cott 2,218 6.3 -17.8
Green Alex Johnson¹⁰ 1,724 4.9 +3.3
Majority 12,673 36.1
Turnout 35,085 57.5

Leave Vote: 48%

Sitting MP: Chi Onwurah (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Newcastle upon Tyne East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6068 (16%)
Labour: 17043 (45%)
Lib Dem: 12590 (33.3%)
BNP: 1342 (3.5%)
Green: 620 (1.6%)
Others: 177 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 4453 (11.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nick Brown 19,378 49.4 +4.4
Conservative Duncan Crute⁶ 6,884 17.6 +1.5
UKIP David Robinson-Young⁷ 4,910 12.5 +12.5
Liberal Democrat Wendy Taylor 4,332 11.0 -22.2
Green Andrew Gray⁸ 3,426 8.7 +7.1
TUSC Paul Phillips ⁹ 170 0.4 +0.4
Communist Mollie Stevenson¹⁰ 122 0.3 -0.2
Majority 12,494 31.9
Turnout 39,222 52.9 −5.8

Leave Vote: 41.1%

Sitting MP: Nick Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

7. Newcastle upon Tyne North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7966 (18.1%)
Labour: 17950 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 14536 (33.1%)
BNP: 1890 (4.3%)
Green: 319 (0.7%)
UKIP: 1285 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 3414 (7.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Catherine McKinnell 20,689 46.1 +5.2
Conservative Stephen Bates⁵ 10,536 23.5 +5.3
UKIP Timothy Marron 7,447 16.6 +13.7
Liberal Democrat Anita Lower⁶ 4,366 9.7 -23.4
Green Alison Whalley⁷ 1,515 3.4 +2.6
North East Party Violet Rook⁸ 338 0.7 +0.8
Majority 10,153 22.6 +15.2
Turnout 44,891 66.7 +1.2

Leave Vote: 56.8%

Sitting MP: Catherine McKinnell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. North Tyneside

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8514 (18.3%)
Labour: 23505 (50.7%)
Lib Dem: 10621 (22.9%)
BNP: 1860 (4%)
UKIP: 1306 (2.8%)
Others: 599 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 12884 (27.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Mary Glindon 26,191 55.9 +5.3
Conservative Martin McGann 8,997 19.2 +0.9
UKIP Scott Hartley⁵ 7,618 16.3 +13.5
Liberal Democrat John Appleby 2,075 4.4 -18.5
Green Martin Collins 1,442 3.1 +3.1
TUSC Tim Wall 304 0.6 +0.6
National Front Bob Batten 191 0.4 -0.9
Majority 17,194 36.7 +8.9
Turnout 46,818 59.0 -0.7

Vote Leave: 59.5%

Sitting MP: Mary Glindon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. South Shields

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7886 (21.6%)
Labour: 18995 (52%)
Lib Dem: 5189 (14.2%)
BNP: 2382 (6.5%)
Green: 762 (2.1%)
Independent: 729 (2%)
Others: 575 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 11109 (30.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Emma Lewell-Buck 18,589 51.3 −0.8
UKIP Norman Dennis 7,975 22.0 N/A
Conservative Robert Oliver 6,021 16.6 −5.0
Green Shirley Ford 1,614 4.5 +2.4
Independent Lisa Nightingale 1,427 3.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Gitanjali (Gita) Gordon 639 1.8 −12.4
Majority 10,614 29.3 −1.1
Turnout 36,265 57.8 +0.1

Leave Result: 62.6%

Sitting MP: Emma Lewel-Buck
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Sunderland Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12770 (30.1%)
Labour: 19495 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 7191 (16.9%)
BNP: 1913 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1094 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 6725 (15.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Julie Elliott 20,959 50.2 +4.3
Conservative Jeff Townsend 9,780 23.4 −6.7
UKIP Bryan Foster⁵ 7,997 19.1 +16.5
Green Rachel Featherstone 1,706 4.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Adrian Page 1,105 2.6 −14.3
Independent Joseph Young 215 0.5 N/A
Majority 11,179 26.8
Turnout 41,762 57.0 +0.0

Leave Vote: 55.4%

Sitting MP: Julie Elliott
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Tynemouth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18121 (34.4%)
Labour: 23860 (45.3%)
Lib Dem: 7845 (14.9%)
BNP: 1404 (2.7%)
Green: 538 (1%)
UKIP: 900 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 5739 (10.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alan Campbell 25,791 48.2 +2.9
Conservative Glenn Hall⁶ 17,551 32.8 -1.6
UKIP Gary Legg⁷ 6,541 12.2 +10.5
Green Julia Erskine⁸ 2,017 3.8 +2.8
Liberal Democrat John Paton-Day⁹ 1,595 3.0 -11.9
Majority 8,240 15.4 +4.5
Turnout 53,495 69 -0.6

Leave Vote: 47.6%

Sitting MP: Alan Campbell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. Washington & Sunderland West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8157 (21.8%)
Labour: 19615 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 6382 (17.1%)
BNP: 1913 (5.1%)
UKIP: 1267 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 11458 (30.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Sharon Hodgson 20,478 55.0 +2.5
UKIP Aileen Casey 7,321 19.6 +16.3
Conservative Bob Dhillon 7,033 18.9 −3.0
Green Anthony Murphy⁶ 1,091 2.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Dominic Haney 993 2.7 −14.4
TUSC Gary Duncan 341 0.9 N/A
Majority 13,157 35.3
Turnout 37,257 54.6

Leave Result: 64.5%
Sitting MP: Sharon Hodgson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE