I’ve been tinkering with my seat by seat predictions today, mainly in the light of the fact that UKIP aren’t standing in 243 seats including one or two key marginals. It hasn’t changed my predictions too much though. The main change is that I think it may mean Norman Lamb might lose North Norfolk. His majority was just over 4,000 last time and the UKIP vote was over 8,000. James Wild, the Tory candidate only needs to bag half of those, and he wins. However, Norman’s personal vote is not to be underestimated, as I know only too well! Another casualty of UKIP not standing is likely to be Labour’s Jonathan Reynolds in Stalybridge & Hyde. So my revised totals are…
Con 392, Lab 163, LibDem 16, Green 2, SNP 53, Plaid 5, DUP 8, SF, 5, UUP 1, SDLP 3, Ind 2
I am predicting the Conservatives will gain 68 seats, 61 of which will come at the expense of Labour and 4 from the LibDems, as well as 3 from the SNP and 1 from UKIP.
Labour will gain a solitary seat, Brighton Kemptown from the Conservatives.
The LibDems will lose four seats to the Tories but take 6 from them, as well as 4 from Labour.
Here’s the complete list…
Conservative Gains from Labour
Alyn & Deesside Mark Tami 3343
Barrow in Furness John Woodcock 795
Batley & Spen Tracey Brabin 16537
Birmingham Edgbaston Gisela Stuart 2706
Birmingham Erdington Jack Dromey 5129
Birmingham Northfield Richard Burden 2509
Bishop Auckland Helen Goodman 5218
Blackpool South Gordon Marsden 2585
Bolton North East David Crausby 4377
Bristol East Kerry McCarthy 3980
Brentford & Isleworth Ruth Cadbury 465
Bridgend Madeleine Moon 1927
Bristol South Karin Smith 7128
Cardiff South & Penarth Stephen Doughty 7453
Cardiff West Kevin Brennan 6789
Chorley Lindsay Hoyle 4530
City of Chester Chris Matheson 93
Clwyd South Susan Elan-Jones 2402
Coventry North West Geoffrey Robinson 6288
Coventry South Jim Cunningham 3188
Dagenham & Rainham Jon Cruddas 4980
Darlington Jenny Chapman 3158
Delyn David Hanson 2930
Dewsbury Paula Sherriff 1526
Dudley North Ian Austin 4181
Ealing Central & Acton Rupa Huq 274
Eltham Clive Efford 2693
Enfield North Joan Ryan 1086
Gedling Vernon Coaker 2986
Great Grimsby Melanie Onn 4540
Halifax Holly Lynch 428
Hampstead & Kilburn Tulip Siddiq 1138
Harrow West Gareth Thomas 3143
Hartlepool Iain Wright 3024
Hove Peter Kyle 1236
Hyndburn Graham Jones 4400
Ilford North West Streeting 589
Lancaster & Fleetwood Cat Smith 1265
Luton South Gavin Shuker 5711
Mansfield Alan Meale 5315
Middlesbrough S & E Cleveland Tom Blenkinsop 2268
Newcastle under Lyme Paul Farrelly 650
Newport West Paul Flynn 3544
North East Derbyshire Natascha Engel 1883
Penistone & Stockbridge Angela Smith 6723
Scunthorpe Nick Dakin 3134
Southampton Test Alan Whitehead 3810
Stalybridge & Hyde Jonathan Reynolds 6686
Stoke on Trent North Ruth Smeeth 4836
Stoke on Trent South Robert Flello 2539
Tooting Rosena Allin-Khan 6357
Wakefield Mary Creagh 2613
Walsall North David Winnick 1937
Walsall South Valerie Vaz 6007
Westminster North Karen Buck 2126
Workington Sue Hayman 4686
Worsley & Eccles South Barbara Keeley 5946
Wirral West Margaret Greenwood 417
Wolverhampton North East Emma Reynolds 5495
Wolverhampton South West Rob Marris 801
Wrexham Ian Lucas 1831
Conservative Gains from Liberal Democrats
Carshalton & Wallington Tom Brake 1510
North Norfolk Norman Lamb 4043
Richmond Park Sarah Olney 1872
Southport John Pugh 1322
Conservative Gains from SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Calum Kerr 328
Dumfries & Galloway Richard Arkless 6514
West Aberdeenshire & Kinkardine Stuart Donaldson 7033
Conservative Gain from UKIP
Clacton Douglas Carswell 3437
Green Gains from Labour
Bristol West Thangnam Debbonaire 5673
Labour Gains from Conservative
Brighton Kemptown Simon Kirby 690
Liberal Democrat Gains from Conservative
Bath Ben Howlett 3833
Cheltenham Alex Chalk 6516
Thornbury & Yate Luke Hall 1495
Kingston James Berry 2834
Lewes Maria Caulfield 1083
Twickenham Tania Mathias 2017
Liberal Democrat Gains from Labour
Burnley Julie Cooper 3244
Cambridge Daniel Zeichner 599
Bermondsey Neil Coyle 4489
Cardiff Central Jo Stevens 4981
Plaid Cymru Gains from Labour
Llanelli Nia Griffith 7095
Yns Mon Albert Owen 229
Sinn Fein Gain From UUP
Fermanagh & South Tyrone Tom Elliot 530
SNP Gain from Labour
Edinburgh South Ian Murray 2637
