Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.
DERBYSHIRE
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 7
Final Prediction: Unchanged
1. Amber Valley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17746 (38.6%)
Labour: 17210 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 6636 (14.4%)
BNP: 3195 (7%)
UKIP: 906 (2%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 536 (1.2%)
Sitting MP: Nigel Mills (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Surefire Labour gain. Nigel Mills ‘Candy Crush’ incident won’t have helped him.
2. Bolsover
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10812 (24.6%)
Labour: 21994 (50%)
Lib Dem: 6821 (15.5%)
BNP: 2640 (6%)
UKIP: 1721 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 11182 (25.4%)
Sitting MP: Dennis Skinner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
3. Chesterfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7214 (15.7%)
Labour: 17891 (39%)
Lib Dem: 17342 (37.8%)
Green: 600 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1432 (3.1%)
English Dem: 1213 (2.6%)
Independent: 147 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 549 (1.2%)
Sitting MP: Toby Perkins (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority
One of only three Labour gains at the last election (from the LibDems, in the case of Chesterfield), Toby Perkins will have a very decent majority in May 2015.
4. Derby North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14283 (31.7%)
Labour: 14896 (33%)
Lib Dem: 12638 (28%)
BNP: 2000 (4.4%)
UKIP: 829 (1.8%)
Independent: 264 (0.6%)
Others: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 613 (1.4%)
Sitting MP: Chris Williamson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
A genuine three way marginal. At least, it was at the last election. Expect Chris Williamson to capitalise on LibDem woes.
5. Derby South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11729 (28.5%)
Labour: 17851 (43.3%)
Lib Dem: 8430 (20.5%)
UKIP: 1821 (4.4%)
Independent: 1357 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 6122 (14.9%)
Sitting MP: Margaret Beckett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe Labour seat.
6. Derbyshire Dales
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24378 (52.1%)
Labour: 9061 (19.4%)
Lib Dem: 10512 (22.5%)
Green: 772 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.8%)
Others: 278 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 13866 (29.6%)
Sitting MP: Patrick McLoughlin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
7. Erewash
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18805 (39.5%)
Labour: 16304 (34.2%)
Lib Dem: 8343 (17.5%)
BNP: 2337 (4.9%)
Green: 534 (1.1%)
UKIP: 855 (1.8%)
Independent: 464 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2501 (5.2%)
Sitting MP: Jessica Lee (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Jessica Lee is standing down, whih will certainly hurt the Tories’ chances of retaining this seat. It would be astonishing if Labour didn’t win here in May.
8. High Peak
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20587 (40.9%)
Labour: 15910 (31.6%)
Lib Dem: 10993 (21.8%)
Green: 922 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1690 (3.4%)
Independent: 161 (0.3%)
Others: 74 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 4677 (9.3%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Bingham (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
Could go either way, but the majority here is big enough to give Andrew Bignham hope of retaining the seat he won in 2010. However, the problem is that the LibDems have a 22% vote share here. If this reduces by half, it’s likely Labour could snatch the seat. I’m giving Bingham the benefit of a very severe doubt.
9. Mid Derbyshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22877 (48.3%)
Labour: 11585 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 9711 (20.5%)
BNP: 1698 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1252 (2.6%)
Others: 219 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11292 (23.9%)
Sitting MP: Pauline Latham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
10. North East Derbyshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15503 (33%)
Labour: 17948 (38.2%)
Lib Dem: 10947 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2636 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 2445 (5.2%)
Sitting MP: Natascha Engel (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority
11. South Derbyshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22935 (45.5%)
Labour: 15807 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 8012 (15.9%)
BNP: 2193 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.4%)
Others: 266 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7128 (14.1%)
Sitting MP: Heather Wheeler (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Likely to be a smaller majority, but Heather Wheeler looks safe here.
To all see previous predictions. click HERE
