Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.
GWENT
Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 7
Final Prediction: Unchanged
- Blaenau Gwent
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2265 (7%)
Labour: 16974 (52.4%)
Lib Dem: 3285 (10.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 1333 (4.1%)
BNP: 1211 (3.7%)
UKIP: 488 (1.5%)
Peoples Voice: 6458 (19.9%)
Others: 381 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 10516 (32.5%)
Sitting MP: Nick Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
2. Caerphilly
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6622 (17.1%)
Labour: 17377 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 5688 (14.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 6460 (16.7%)
BNP: 1635 (4.2%)
UKIP: 910 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10755 (27.8%)
Sitting MP: Wayne David (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
3. Islwyn
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4854 (14%)
Labour: 17069 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 3597 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 4518 (13%)
BNP: 1320 (3.8%)
UKIP: 930 (2.7%)
Independent: 1495 (4.3%)
Others: 901 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12215 (35.2%)
Sitting MP: Chris Evans (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
4. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2412 (7.5%)
Labour: 14007 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 9951 (31%)
Plaid Cymru: 1621 (5.1%)
BNP: 1173 (3.7%)
UKIP: 872 (2.7%)
Independent: 1845 (5.8%)
Others: 195 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4056 (12.6%)
Sitting MP: Dai Havard (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Relatively safe seat. Having said that, UKIP did astonishingly well in the Euro elections here. If they repeated that in the General Election and took a lot of votes from Labour, the seat could be vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats. But I’ll believe that when I see it.
5. Monmouth
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22466 (48.3%)
Labour: 12041 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 9026 (19.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1273 (2.7%)
Green: 587 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1126 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10425 (22.4%)
Sitting MP: David T C Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
6. Newport East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7918 (23%)
Labour: 12744 (37%)
Lib Dem: 11094 (32.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 724 (2.1%)
BNP: 1168 (3.4%)
UKIP: 677 (2%)
Others: 123 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1650 (4.8%)
Sitting MP: Jessica Morden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
A marginal, but with the LibDems in second place it’s almost certain Jessica Morden will increase her majority.
7. Newport West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12845 (32.3%)
Labour: 16389 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6587 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 1122 (2.8%)
BNP: 1183 (3%)
Green: 450 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1144 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 3544 (8.9%)
Sitting MP: Paul Flynn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This seat has always looked marginal and the Tories had high hopes in 2010. They don’t in 2015.
8. Torfaen
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20%)
Labour: 16847 (44.8%)
Lib Dem: 6264 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2005 (5.3%)
BNP: 1657 (4.4%)
Green: 438 (1.2%)
UKIP: 862 (2.3%)
Independent: 1419 (3.8%)
Others: 607 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 9306 (24.7%)
Sitting MP: Paul Murphy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
