Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

MID GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 5
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Bridgend

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11668 (30.4%)
Labour: 13931 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8658 (22.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2269 (5.9%)
BNP: 1020 (2.7%)
UKIP: 801 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 2263 (5.9%)

Sitting MP: Madeleine Moon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The only way Labour will lose here is if the LibDem vote goes to the Tories rather than Labour. Unlikely. UKIP didn’t poll much here last time and it will be interesting to see if they influence the outcome.

2. Cynon Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3010 (10.1%)
Labour: 15681 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 4120 (13.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 6064 (20.3%)
UKIP: 1001 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 9617 (32.2%)

Sitting MP: Ann Clwyd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

4. Ogmore

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5398 (15.6%)
Labour: 18644 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 5260 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3326 (9.6%)
BNP: 1242 (3.6%)
UKIP: 780 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 13246 (38.2%)

Sitting MP: Huw Irranca-Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Pontypridd

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5932 (16.2%)
Labour: 14220 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 11435 (31.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2673 (7.3%)
Green: 361 (1%)
UKIP: 1229 (3.4%)
Christian: 365 (1%)
Others: 456 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 2785 (7.6%)

Sitting MP: Owen Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

A big LibDem vote for Labour to eat into. Owen Smith will also benefit from his media exposure as Labour’s Shadow Welsh Secretary.

6. Rhondda

2010 Result:
Conservative: 1993 (6.4%)
Labour: 17183 (55.3%)
Lib Dem: 3309 (10.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 5630 (18.1%)
UKIP: 358 (1.2%)
Independent: 2599 (8.4%)
MAJORITY: 11553 (37.2%)

Sitting MP: Chris Bryant (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat. Having said that, according to Goodwin & Ford this is UKIP’s number 1 Labour target seat. They might reduce Chris Bryant’s majority, but they won’t pick him off.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE