Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

WEST GLAMORGAN

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 5
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Aberavon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4411 (14.2%)
Labour: 16073 (51.9%)
Lib Dem: 5034 (16.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2198 (7.1%)
BNP: 1276 (4.1%)
UKIP: 489 (1.6%)
Independent: 919 (3%)
Others: 558 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 11039 (35.7%)

Sitting MP: Hywel Francis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Gower

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13333 (32%)
Labour: 16016 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 7947 (19.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 2760 (6.6%)
BNP: 963 (2.3%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 2683 (6.4%)

Sitting MP: Martin Caton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories have always eyed this seat but haven’t managed to win it. Their only hope this time is that UKIp takes votes away from Labour and they’re not replaced by former LibDem voters. I think they need to pray rather than hope.

3. Neath

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4847 (13.1%)
Labour: 17172 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 5535 (14.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 7397 (19.9%)
BNP: 1342 (3.6%)
UKIP: 829 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 9775 (26.3%)

Sitting MP: Peter Hain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat even though Peter Hain is retiring.

4. Swansea East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4823 (14.8%)
Labour: 16819 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5981 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2181 (6.7%)
BNP: 1715 (5.2%)
Green: 318 (1%)
UKIP: 839 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10838 (33.2%)

Sitting MP: Sian James (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat. Sian James is standing down.

5. Swansea West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7407 (20.8%)
Labour: 12335 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 11831 (33.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1437 (4%)
BNP: 910 (2.6%)
Green: 404 (1.1%)
UKIP: 716 (2%)
TUSC: 179 (0.5%)
Independent: 374 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 504 (1.4%

Sitting MP: Geraint Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The LibDems came within a whisker of winning this seat last time and this is one their main hopes in 2015. Tactical voting by Conservatives may aid and abett them, and they will hope that UKIP leech off some traditional Labour support, but there are too many ‘ifs’ here to be confident of predicting an upset.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE